10 things I’m watching in the Alberta Legislature this spring

Political scandals, resignations, budget cuts, strikes and coal mining - Alberta politics is never boring

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10 things I’m watching in the Alberta Legislature this spring

Political scandals, resignations, budget cuts, strikes and coal mining - Alberta politics is never boring

The Rotunda of the Alberta Legislature Building ahead of the provincial budget announcement in February 2024 (photo credit: Dave Cournoyer)

The familiar voice of Speaker Nathan Cooper calling out “order!” and “the honourable member for…” is once again echoing through the hallowed halls of Alberta’s Legislative Assembly as MLAs return to Edmonton for the start of the spring session.

Government House Leader Joseph Schow released the United Conservative Party government’s legislative agenda for the session, which I will write about over the next few weeks, but here is a broader overview of what I’m watching as MLAs return to the Legislature:

1. Private surgical contracts scandal

Some people are calling it the Dodgy Contracts Scandal and the opposition NDP have gone all in on naming it CorruptCare, but whatever you are calling this political scandal there is no doubt it will be front and centre in this legislative session.

This morning’s news that Minister of Infrastructure Peter Guthrie is resigning from cabinet in protest of the scandal and how Premier Danielle Smith has handled it is sure to add fuel to the political fire.

“I’m not going to stand by and see potential corruption exist within government and be a part of that,” Guthrie is reported to have said. He plans to sit in the Legislature as a UCP MLA, but whether Smith wants him to remain in the government caucus is unclear (and unlikely).

Cracks in UCP cabinet unity started to show when Guthrie’s proposal to remove Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange from her current cabinet post was leaked to the media, though it is unclear who leaked it.

Smith and LaGrange tried to change the channel on the scandal at a press conference last week by pinning the blame on Alberta Health Services procurement staff, but an almost never-ending series of scoops from Globe & Mail investigative reporters Carrie Tait and Alanna Smith have undermined the UCP government’s efforts to spin their way out of the political storm.

There continues to be chatter in political circles about how unhappy some cabinet ministers are about the allegations levelled by former AHS CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos and how Smith has responded, meaning there is a chance more UCP internal drama will spill out into public in the coming weeks.

Expect the NDP opposition, with the protections of parliamentary privilege, to spend a lot of time questioning and prodding UCP cabinet ministers about this scandal during Question Period.

2. Provincial budget

Minister of Finance Nate Horner will table the provincial budget on Thursday, February 27.

Alberta relies heavily on oil and gas royalties as a revenue source to fund the day to day operations of government, meaning that the price of a barrel of oil is very important to the provincial budget. The price fluctuated significantly over the past year and it is now fairly close to what the government projected in last year’s budget, but external factors like US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Canadian oil & gas imports will factor in to the budget debates.

According to an investigative report by journalist Brett McKay, Premier Smith created a Productivity Review Cabinet Committee to comb through government accounts department by department and program by program, moving “low priority spending into high priority areas and finding savings.”

The cabinet committee was tasked with finding savings so that Smith could deliver on a much promised tax cuts from the 2023 election. She told reporters in her year end interviews in December 2024 that those tax cuts would likely come in 2026 and 2027, right before the next provincial election.

But tax cuts and spending cuts won’t address the challenges created by Alberta’s huge population growth, which has put increased pressure on provincially-funded public services like health care and education.

“[W]e haven’t been keeping up with population growth and inflation, in terms of our needs,” Friends of Medicare executive director Chris Gallaway said on CTV’s Alberta Primetime last week. “Two budgets ago, we already knew we were hundreds of beds short in Edmonton and thousands across the province, and what we saw was the canceling of the South Edmonton hospital, a hospital that we already need today. We haven’t built a hospital since 1988 and the city’s population has doubled.”

Horner will also likely highlight in the budget the newly created Heritage Fund Opportunities Corporation, a Crown corporation chaired by Joe Lougheed, son of former Premier and Heritage Fund founder Peter Lougheed.

• Horner will be speaking at the 40th annual budget breakfast on February 28, hosted this year by the Edmonton-Riverview and Edmonton-Glenora UCP constituency associations. The annual fundraising breakfast is a tradition started by the Progressive Conservative association in Edmonton-Glenora, a riding that was then represented by Provincial Treasurer Lou Hyndman. This year’s event at the Royal Glenora Club will feature a “bear-pit” question and answer session with cabinet ministers hosted by Erika Barootes of The Discourse Podcast.

3. Public sector bargaining

With labour unions representing more than 250,000 public sector workers currently negotiating new contracts with the provincial government and agencies and boards that rely on provincial funding, this spring session could be a flashpoint for frontline workers who haven’t received significant pay increases in many years.

The Alberta Federation of Labour released an updated report from economist Dr. Jim Stanford last month showing that wages in Alberta have continued to fall behind other provinces like British Columbia and Quebec.

Education workers represented by CUPE have been on strike in Edmonton, Fort McMurray, St. Albert, Morinville, and Sturgeon County for months and custodial and maintenance workers employed by the public and Catholic school boards in Calgary walked off the job this week.

Teachers attending the their annual convention in Edmonton later this week are planning to rally at the Legislature on Budget Day on February 27. This rally could be a preview of a spring and summer of strikes in Alberta if deals can’t be reached at the bargaining table.

4. The shadow of Trump looms large

Threats by American President Donald Trump to impose tariffs and annex Canada as the 51st State loom large in Canadian politics.

Smith launched her own charm offensive earlier this year, but her freelance diplomacy appears to have fallen flat. Despite lobbying for a tariff exemption for Canadian oil and gas, Trump has repeatedly mocked the ask by saying his country doesn’t need Canadian oil and gas. Provincial premiers were also openly mocked by White House staff on social media after they tried to lobby the Trump administration.

This is a challenging issue for Smith. As I’ve written before, Smith is the Trumpiest Premier in Canada, and she feels that many politicians in Trump’s orbit should be her natural allies. There are also many enthusiastic Trump supporters in her party and caucus but, overall, Albertans are not enthusiastic about the US President. A recent Leger poll showed that, even in conservative-voting Alberta, only 21% of people had a favourable view of Trump. Smith’s challenge is that most of those 21% are likely supporters of her party as well.

5. Health care restructuring

One of the key promises Smith made during her 2022 run for the UCP leadership was to dismantle Alberta’s province-wide health authority in response to AHS’s role in managing the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While AHS was already facing legitimate challenges unrelated to the pandemic, it’s unclear how the UCP government’s massive restructuring of the public health care system, including its expensive foray into private surgical clinics, will actually make the health care system better for patients.

Hiving AHS into of multiple separate organizational silos meant to manage different parts of health care has caused a lot of chaos and confusion and does not address the big challenges facing public health care - overcrowded hospitals and a severe shortage of nurses, physicians and health care workers.

6. Coal mining in the Eastern Slopes

You were mistaken if you believed the province-wide uproar in 2021 against allowing open-pit coal mining in the Eastern Slopes of Alberta’s Rocky Mountains put to bed any future mining projects.