Albertans give Danielle Smith a failing grade on separatism but would probably re-elect the UCP anyway
Will Smith survive to finish a full-term as Premier? Probably, but TBD.
Only two Alberta premiers have finished a full term in office since the beginning of the 21st century.
Ralph Klein completed his third full-term as a Progressive Conservative premier from 2001 to 2004 and Rachel Notley led the New Democratic Party through the entirety of its historic one-term as government from 2015 to 2019 (Notley’s also defied historical expectations by leading her party to a near comeback in 2023).
Aside from Klein and Notley, the Premier’s Office has been a rotating door of short-term tenants who were forced out after election defeats, scandals, caucus and cabinet revolts, and raucous party memberships (the exception being Premier Dave Hancock, who served in the role for the six months between Alison Redford’s resignation and Jim Prentice’s win in the 2014 PC Party leadership race).
So the question on the minds of many political watchers today is whether the current occupant of the Premier’s Office, Danielle Smith, can survive a full-term in office to lead her party into the next election?
A month ago, I would have said absolutely and even today I would say probably, but Smith is now finding herself on increasingly shakier political ground after deciding to call a province-wide referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada.
Danielle Smith’s approval rating takes a plunge
Smith has been successful at maintaining her popularity with United Conservative Party voters since entering the Premier’s Office in 2022 while also remaining a very polarizing figure among the general public. Her supporters tend to really like her and her critics tend to really not.
But a recent poll released by Angus Reid shows Smith’s public approval has plummeted from 51 per cent just 12 months ago to a record low of 39 per cent approval this month. Only 26 per cent of Albertans surveyed in the poll said they strongly approved of Smith’s performance as Premier and, at 46 per cent, she has the strongest disapproval rating of any Premier in Canada.
While the UCP government has implemented a fairly radical and chaotic political agenda and have been caught up in some major scandals that would have shattered public support for most premiers, it appears that Smith’s decision to call a referendum on Alberta separating from Canada is what was finally able to shake her popularity among many Albertans.
Smith says she will campaign for Alberta to remain in Canada ahead of her October referendum but Albertans aren’t buying her later-day Captain Canada act.
Smith has spent most of the last year changing laws and making it easier for separatist supporters inside her UCP to organize for the separation vote. She was happy to ignore a pro-Canada Forever Canadian citizen initiative petition until the moment the Stay Free Alberta petition was blocked by the courts. And she has spent a considerable amount of time chastising Albertans who want to remain in Canada for not treating the separatists with kid gloves — without applying the same expectations to the separatists inside her party.
A recent poll released by Ipsos showed the 48 per cent of Albertans believed Smith wants Alberta to leave Canada and only 31 per cent surveyed believed she wants Alberta to stay in Canada.
Another Angus Reid survey found that 56 per cent of Albertans believed Smith is handling the separatism issue poorly and 58 per cent believed she is calling the referendum to appease the separatists in her party. Sixty-nine per cent of Albertans surveyed believe the separatists will never accept a no vote result in the referendum, which is a prediction I’m willing to bet money on.
Most polls show that separatism is largely an issue among a subset of UCP voters who would vote for Alberta to leave Canada, but the wording of Smith’s referendum question has left separatist organizers like UCP constituency president and separatist leader Mitch Sylvester deeply unhappy and publicly challenging Smith’s leadership (though Smith’s wording makes it easier to frame the question as a way to send a message to Ottawa).
Smith’s inner circle has already been heard arguing that replacing the Premier will almost certainly lead to a less appealing leader or even, gasp, an NDP government.
Smith all of a sudden looks pretty wobbly as she tries to continue what had been a fairly impressive balancing act of appeasing both separatists and people who want to just send a message to Ottawa without leaving Canada — and those people are almost entirely inside her own party’s voter coalition.
Jason Kenney comparisons are flawed
A number of people have made comparisons to Premier Jason Kenney who was driven out of office in 2022 by UCP activists unhappy that his government enacted public health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many of those same party activists are now the most enthusiastic Alberta separatists within the UCP and they include UCP MLAs, provincial vice-presidents and board members, past candidates, and influential local constituency presidents — and many of them are deeply influenced by the radical online politics of American President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement.
While Smith’s political ground is a lot shakier than it was a year ago, there’s a few key differences between her situation and Kenney’s that are important to recognize.
1. Smith has UCP MLA support
Smith is not facing an open rebellion of UCP MLAs like Kenney was in the final days of his premiership. Smith’s UCP has actually grown over the past year after it welcomed back Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair. Sinclair rejoined the UCP Caucus after spending much of the last year criticizing corruption in the Smith government until he probably realized that his chances of re-election as an Independent MLA were slim to none.
Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie, who quit cabinet and was kicked out of the UCP Caucus after asking too many questions about alleged government corruption, remains leader of the Progressive Tory Party.
Power in the UCP government is clearly centralized in the Premier’s Office, and through Chief of Staff Rob Anderson (co-author of the Free Alberta Strategy), but Smith has allowed some dissent in her caucus on the separation issue.
Red Deer-South MLA Jason Stephan quit his job as a Parliamentary Secretary after publicly supporting Sylvestre’s separation petition, but he was never at risk of being kicked out of the UCP Caucus. And Smith stood confidently behind transportation minister Devin Dreeshen after he refused to say if he would vote to remain in Canada.
2. The UCP is raising tonnes of money
The UCP under Smith’s leadership has remained a fundraising powerhouse.
Elections Alberta disclosures from the first quarter of 2026 show Smith’s UCP raised $2,478,702.89 between January 1 and March 31, putting the governing party miles ahead of Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP, which raised $1,021,436.32 in the same period.
Big fundraising dinners in Edmonton, Lethbridge and Red Deer earlier this year, and a 2000-person fundraising gala in Calgary last week, will fill the UCP coffers ahead of the next provincial election, which is expected to be held in 2027.
Notley’s NDP led in fundraising during Kenney’s final year as UCP leader and Premier.
3. UCP is still ahead of the NDP in the polls, though the gap is closing
Aside from the recent dip in the polls and Smith’s own approval rating, the UCP remains ahead in the polls and headed for another majority government in 2027 — especially if the ridings are drawn in a way that guarantees it.
Three recent polls show the UCP in the lead and two show NDP gaining ground:
Leger: UCP 49%, NDP 40%
Ipsos: UCP 48%, NDP 45%
Angus Reid: UCP 46%, NDP 45%
When Kenney was pushed out, Notley’s NDP were leading in the polls, so although Smith’s personal popularity has taken a hit, her party remains in the lead.
4. Nenshi’s NDP just can’t seem to capitalize on the chaos
Smith’s biggest saving grace might be the inability of Nenshi’s NDP to capitalize on the chaos the UCP has created inside the health care and education system, as well as ceding the affordability issue to the UCP who mostly used it as a bludgeon against Ottawa.
I wrote a year ago that NDP MLAs should should start every day by asking themselves the question “how can we make life more affordable for working-class Alberta families?” and then they should spend the rest of their day talking all about it, all the time.
And just this week, the NDP released a new suite of affordability policies, promising to cut electricity bills by 10 per cent, increase minimum wage to $18, and to reduce grocery prices by increasing competition, ending shrinkflation, and appointing a grocery watchdog. The NDP also proposed removing the $0.13 per litre provincial gas tax while prices remain high.
It’s a good start but the NDP are playing catch up on an issue that they should have spent the last year or more defining.
5. Smith is likely more focused on UCP AGM than the referendum campaign
Smith’s shockingly causal attitude towards calling a province-wide referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada, followed up by pledging a cost-analysis of leaving compiled by a panel of the usual suspects only a few months before the vote, suggests her mind might be more focused on managing the rowdy crowds of party activists that will show up at the UCP AGM in November.
The annual convention will be held a month after the referendum vote and, regardless of the voting results, will almost certainly include fierce debate about Alberta’s separation from Canada and Smith’s future as party leader.
We know that Smith and her government dedicate an intense amount of time catering and responding to the demands and needs of her party’s most loyal activists, and that might be a key difference between Smith and Kenney.
While Kenney was a product of 1990s conservative activism and professional politics that served him well for decades in Ottawa and for a brief time in Alberta, Smith is first and foremost a media personality.
Smith understands from her time as a talk radio show host that the show belongs to the listeners and not the host, or, in her current role, the UCP belongs to the members and not its leader. I understand this will be a divisive position among some UCP members, but it’s clearly how most of the UCP’s most energetic activists see their place in the party and Alberta politics.
Readers shouldn’t interpret this as a defence of Smith because it remains very clear that she holding this divisive and damaging separation referendum in an attempt to save her own leadership, regardless of a huge leak of voters’ personal contact information by separatist groups and the threat of foreign interference and misinformation. But it might work out for her.
Will Smith be more politically damaged when the dust settles? Almost certainly.
Will her United Conservative Party remain united? Yet to be seen.
Will Alberta be more united in a year from now? That feels really unlikely.
Will Smith survive to finish a full-term as Premier? Probably, but TBD.
The next 12 to 18 months might be the most unpredictable time in Albertan and Canadian politics in recent memory, and that says a lot about how chaotic it is going to get.
NDP MLA Amanda Chapman running for re-election in Calgary-Beddington
NDP MLA Amanda Chapman was nominated to run for re-election in Calgary-Beddington at a nomination meeting yesterday. Chapman was first elected in 2023 after defeating UCP MLA Josephine Pon in a close race.
More NDP nominations are coming up soon:
June 16: MLA David Eggen will be nominated in Edmonton-North West and MLA David Shepherd will be nominated in Edmonton-City Centre.
June 24: Sarah Elmeligi will be nominated in Banff-Kananaskis.
June 25: MLA Marie Renaud will be nominated in St. Albert and Sharif Haji will be nominated in Edmonton-Decore.
June 26: Kyle Campbell will be nominated in Calgary-Shaw ahead of an expected by-election.
June 28: MLA Brooks Arcand-Paul will be nominated in Edmonton-West Henday.
Three new candidates have declared their plans to run for UCP nominations to run in the next provincial election:
Michelle Mather is running for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Glenmore
Mather ran for the UCP nomination in Calgary-Lougheed ahead of the 2023 provincial election.
Sanjeev Kad is also running for the party’s nomination in this southwest Calgary riding.
Principal and teacher Kevin Van Lagen is running for the UCP nomination in Drumheller-Stettler
Chidi Iwuchukwu running for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-South West
A full list of nominated and nomination candidates can be found on this page:
More Alberta politics
Corb Lund has submitted the Water Not Coal citizen initiative petition to Elections Alberta.
Lund says more than 200,000 Albertans signed the petition demanding the province prohibit new coal mining in the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains, including the Grassy Mountain and Blackstone projects.
Lund was a recent guest on the Daveberta Podcast.
Monte Solberg and Darwin Durnie have been named by the UCP to the Independent Advisory Panel that will draw the new electoral map for the next election.
Solberg is a former Conservative MP and cabinet minister and Durnie is a senior strategist in emergency management.
NDP appointees are Dr. Gerard Kennedy, a professor of constitutional law at the University of Alberta, and Brent Robinson, a former councillor for the town of Okotoks.
Longtime journalist Sean Amato is now the Director of Communications for the NDP Caucus. Amato worked for many years as a reporter for CTV in Edmonton and most recently for CityNews.
Amato fills a role that was previously occupied by Will Tigley from 2024 to 2025.
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Thanks again,
Dave
An objective update, Dave. Thanks. As to the recent polls, I'll wait to see what Janet Brown has to say. The money pouring into the UCP coffers is no surprise since they changed the NDP legislation to enable corporate donors back into the fray. I've posted on Substack in the past on labelling theory and how that applies to a signifcant perception of the NDP by many businesses and the Alberta population.
I do agree with you that the NDP needs to be more in the forefront. Maybe it's because I grew up in Saskatchewan, but I'd like them to go more left than centrist. For example, nationalize (provincialize?) electricity production and transmission. It is a public need just like health care, so make it a public Crown Corporation that is based on providing a service at cost, without a profit motive. Further, commit to linking it to the (proposed) national grid. Commit to encouraging all forms of renewable energy production. Ban coal mining on the eastern slopes. Refuse to allow AI data banks unless they produce their own electricity and do not use potable water for cooling. Also have an evironmentally sound way to dissipate the heat generated.
You get my point. You might be surprised at the response.I do hope the Tory party ramps up and runs candidates in most, if not all, constituencies. If they do, it will hopefully bleed off enough conservative vote to again allow the NDP to slide into government.
If I had to take an educated guess (and granted I’m prepared to be wrong) I think Smith’s third term is one where she’s likely to remain in power but will lose her majority which as we know puts her and the separatists into an uncomfortable position where at that point they’re gonna have to reach across the aisle
And since this is a province which really only has two major political voices at the provincial level (NDP and Conservative) and given Smith and the UCP’s constant verbal jabs at the NDP the awkward political vice grip that puts them in speaks for itself whether those critiques have merit or not
Again this is all assuming my minority government prediction even becomes a reality