All about Alberta politics in Fall 2025

Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi will spar in the Legislature but the most interesting politics will be on the road

Alberta’s Legislature Building through the view of a broken glass panel in summer 2025 (credit: Dave Cournoyer)

Alberta MLAs will return to Edmonton when the Legislative Assembly reconvenes on October 23 for the province’s first Speech from the Throne in two years.

Draped in pomp and circumstance, the formal ceremonies surrounding the speech are traditionally filled with grandeur and elaborate displays to remind us of our country’s connection to the monarchy. Heralded by trumpets played by soldiers in formal dress uniforms, a crowded Assembly floor of politicians, dignitaries and special guests will listen to the speech delivered by Lieutenant Governor Salma Lakhani.

While the speech is read by Lakhani, and could possibly her last as she enters her fifth year as the province’s viceregal representative, the words on the paper will come directly from Premier Danielle Smith’s office.

Throne speeches play an important symbolic role in the parliamentary process but anyone who has listened to a few of them will recognize the mix of political messaging and stakeholder relations that has become a key part of the ceremony. The content of the speeches are mostly unremarkable and soon forgotten, but as we quickly approach the next provincial election keen political watchers will look for hints of a re-election platform in the speech.

The next provincial election is scheduled to happen two years from now, on October 18, 2027, but the opposition NDP has been playing up well-circulated rumours that Smith could call an early election.

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi speaks at a town hall meeting in Red Deer in August 2025 (source: Naheed Nenshi / Facebook)

A recent fundraising email from Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi with the subject line “Sooner than we think?” includes speculation that Smith’s United Conservative Party is “so afraid of losing power, they’re trying everything to give themselves an unfair advantage. Including US-style gerrymandering.”

Nenshi’s “US-style gerrymandering” comment was a reference to UCP cabinet minister Nathan Neudorf’s controversial proposal to split the southern Alberta city of Lethbridge into four sprawling rural-urban ridings (a story that was first reported on Daveberta). It’s certainly clear what Neudorf’s preference is, but whether it gets included in the soon to be submitted interim report of the Electoral Boundaries Commission is yet to be seen.

The new boundaries will certainly play a big role in the next provincial election but regardless of how the provincial map is redrawn, most voting intention polls show not much has changed since the last provincial election. That vote resulted in two-way race between the UCP and NDP, with Smith’s party’s dominance over almost all of the rural and small city ridings giving them a numerical edge against Rachel Notley’s Edmonton-based NDP.

If Smith’s UCP are afraid of losing the next election, they aren’t showing it by how they are acting as government. But that doesn’t mean anything is a forgone conclusion.

Aside from an effort by two former UCP MLAs to resurrect the Progressive Conservative Party and a blip of support for the separatist Republican Party in a summer by-election, the broader political landscape in Alberta remains a two-way race between the UCP and NDP.

Smith’s approval ratings dropped five points in Angus Reid’s recent survey of provincial leader approval ratings but that decline places her in similar territory to where she has been since entering the Premier’s Office in October 2022. But while Smith enjoys consistent support among UCP voters — and the activists who will attend the party’s raucous annual convention in November — the number of people who strongly disagree with her are the second highest of any premier in Canada.

Although Smith’s base remains largely loyal to her UCP, that strong disapproval and a mountain of turmoil on the horizon in Alberta politics is why I am reluctant to write anyone off in the next election.

Big budget surpluses evaporating into billion dollar deficits, skyrocketing costs of living and auto insurance, rising unemployment, the possibility of job action by teachers and health care workers, a massive and confusing restructuring of the public health care system, and a referendum on separation from Canada should be weaknesses for the UCP government if the opposition NDP could just capitalize on it.

Until now, Smith has been successful at distracting people’s attention through sensational American culture war-inspired policies or by deflecting blame towards the Liberal government in Ottawa. The NDP are hoping that will change now that Nenshi has a seat in the Legislature after winning the Edmonton-Strathcona by-election.

While a lot of political watchers are excited to see the two former University of Calgary student debaters spar in the Assembly, I think that might be one of the least interesting parts of Alberta politics this fall. Question Period in 2025 is good for 30-second social media video clips of politicians trying to embarrass their opponents but rarely for much else.

Now that Nenshi is an MLA, the NDP Caucus budget can be used to give him a public platform. This summer that has meant giving Nenshi and prominent opposition MLAs like deputy leader Rakhi Pancholi and finance critic Court Ellingson a soapbox to stand on at “Better Together” town hall meetings around the province.

Back in June I wrote that getting Nenshi back on the town hall circuit could help reignite the spark that generated so much interest in his campaign for the NDP leadership in 2023.

Town hall meetings during the leadership race helped galvanize his position as the frontrunner, attracted a lot of interested Albertans, and helped show a side of Nenshi that was fun, entertaining, and punchy. A lot of those Albertans who were excited about Nenshi in 2023 have been patiently waiting for him to get his groove back and party organizers are hoping these town halls are his back path.

I’m told by people who have attended that Nenshi’s meetings feel more like civic engagement sessions with a focus on group discussions than a traditional town hall. It’s a contrast from the open-mic moderated by a sarcastic and patronizing Bruce McAllister at Smith’s Alberta Next panel government town halls. But regardless of the different formats, the town halls deliver audiences that both leaders seem like they can thrive in front of.

The travelling road shows are important, but so is the NDP’s message. Nenshi’s NDP still needs a straight forward and convincing answer to how can they make life more affordable for working-class Alberta families. Once they figure that out they need to repeat it and then repeat it again and again. That means getting out and hustling.

When Nenshi was Mayor of Calgary, anytime he wanted to speak to the media journalists would be there to listen and report what he said. Being Leader of the Official Opposition in Alberta is like living in a meat grinder — even since our politics have become competitive. It takes a lot more work to get attention and connect with voters.

While the Legislature will soon once again become the centre of Alberta politics, over the next two years (or however long we have before the next election) I expect we will see a lot more of Nenshi and Smith on the road rather than in the Assembly chamber.