Being in Trump's orbit a double-edged sword for Alberta
Smith wants tariff exemptions for oil and gas but Trump might want those jobs for American workers
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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith continued her diplomatic charm offensive in the United States with a surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago, the Florida resort owned by incoming American President Donald Trump. Trump’s Sunshine State refuge has operated as his White House-in-Waiting until next week’s Presidential Inauguration festivities.
Smith has been a regular guest over the past few weeks on a long list of Fox News shows where she has argued that Trump should to exempt Canadian oil and gas from his threat of tariffs. She also plans to join a crowd of Trump supporters to watch him be sworn-in to office next week in Washington D.C.
Albertans found out about Smith’s trip after her staff posted photos on social media of her and Trump alongside celebrity investor and former Conservative Party leadership candidate Kevin O’Leary. She also posted photos of herself, O’Leary, and conservative gadfly Jordan Peterson at Mar-a-Lago.
The Premier’s Office released a six-sentence statement after the visit was made public but a whole bunch of unanswered questions remain. It’s not clear how much time Smith actually spent with Trump, whether the meeting was officially scheduled or if O’Leary was playing the role of her wingman in a pool-side walk-by encounter, whether she said anything about Trump’s repeated public threats to annex Canada through “economic force” (O’Leary likes the idea), or whether anyone in the ranks of Canada’s diplomatic service knew Smith was travelling to Florida.
While I am sure there are plenty of discussions happening between Canadian and American diplomats through official channels, as far as a public diplomacy campaign goes, Smith appears to be the most successful Canadian politician to break into Trump’s orbit.
But being in Trump’s orbit is a double-edged sword.
The danger of constantly reminding Trump and his supporters on Fox News about how dependent they are on Canadian oil exports and the jobs that it creates for Canadians is that they might starting thinking those jobs should belong to Americans. Their rallying cry is America First, right?
Smith’s Mar-a-Lago visit comes just over a week after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plans to resign after his Liberal Party chooses a new leader in March.
Smith recently announced the latest in her United Conservative Party government’s plans to help the oil industry double its production. That announcement was, without a doubt, meant to be a big poke in the eye to Trudeau and Minister of Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault. The Liberals have spent a decade building a regime of climate change initiatives that will be systematically dismantled if Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives romp to victory in this year’s federal election.
The Liberal Party’s impending defeat and the leadership vacuum in Ottawa has emboldened Smith south of the border. It’s not hard to see why she has launched her own diplomatic charm offensive. The oil and gas industry is a huge employer and economic driver in western Canada, and it fits perfectly into her government’s Alberta autonomy agenda.
As I wrote a few weeks ago, Smith is also Canada’s Trumpiest Premier. She and her circle of close advisors embrace and immerse themselves in MAGA politics and media more than any other Canadian Premier’s office.
Smith’s UCP government has adopted populist messaging and attitudes that mirror some of Trump’s politics, and a big portion of the UCP’s activist membership base lives and breathes in the expanded MAGA social media universe. Smith was a guest of honour at Tucker Carlson’s live performance in Calgary early last year and she and UCP cabinet ministers have appeared on Jordan Peterson’s podcast.
But while Danielle Smith is racking up air miles lobbying for oil and gas exemptions, she might also be undermining the biggest stick a future Canadian government in Ottawa has to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs - the oil and gas we export into the United States.
Nenshi running in Edmonton-Strathcona by-election
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi will run as his party’s candidate in the by-election in Edmonton-Strathcona. The riding was represented by former NDP Premier Rachel Notley from 2008 until her resignation on December 30, 2024. A by-election will need to be called before the end of June.
The NDP will hold a campaign-kickoff style nomination meeting to formally name Nenshi as the candidate on January 22 at the Hazeldean Community Hall, located in the south side of the central Edmonton riding.
Nenshi’s choice to run in an Edmonton riding, rather than a riding in Calgary where he was mayor from 2010 to 2021, may seem like an odd one. It had been widely rumoured that a longtime NDP MLA in Calgary might step down to allow Nenshi to run in a by-election, but Notley’s resignation created an easy opening for the new party leader in the safest riding in the province (Notley was re-elected in 2023 with 79.7 percent of the vote).
It’s almost a certainty that Nenshi will win this by-election when it is held and it seems just as likely that he will run in a Calgary riding in the next general election, expected to be held in October 2027.
Who comes after Trudeau? Carney and Freeland have Alberta connections
Two of the leading candidates to replace outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have roots in Alberta, and members of their family have experience in Alberta politics.
Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is expected to launch his campaign for the Liberal Party leadership at an event in Edmonton on Thursday, January 16. It’s expected that if Carney were to become the federal Liberal Party leader, he could run in an Edmonton riding because of his connections to the city, writes Abbas Rana of the Hill Times.
Carney grew up in Edmonton and attended St. Rose Catholic junior high school and St. Francis Xavier high school.
His father, Bob Carney, was the Liberal candidate in Edmonton South in the 1980 federal election. He finished in second place with 26 percent, behind Progressive Conservative MP Douglas Roche.
The elder Carney was an education professor at the University of Alberta, and served as executive director of the Alberta Catholic School Trustees’ Association in the early 1970s and Alberta’s deputy minister of recreation, parks and wildlife from 1975 to 1976.
In December 1980, a young Mark Carney wrote a letter to the editor that was published in the Edmonton Journal chastising the newspaper for its anti-Trudeau slant.
Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland is expected to run for the Liberal Party leadership. I wrote last month about her family connections to Alberta. Freeland grew up in Peace River and Edmonton and attended Old Scona Academic High School.
Her family also has a history in Alberta politics:
Her father Donald Freeland ran as the Liberal Party candidate in Peace River in the 1979 provincial election.
Her mother Halyna Freeland ran as the NDP candidate in Edmonton Strathcona in the 1988 federal election.
Her grandfather, Wilbur Freeland, ran for the Liberal Party in the 1955 provincial election and in a 1961 provincial by-election in Peace River. He was defeated in a bid for the federal Liberal nomination ahead of the 1963 election and later ran for the leadership of the Alberta Liberal Party in 1966, finishing in third place on the second ballot behind former Calgary City Councillor Adrian Berry and future leader Bob Russell.
Her great-uncle, Ged Baldwin, was the PC Party MP for Peace River from 1958 to 1980.
Thank you for your dive into the historical background of the two candidates
So David Staples is just a reincarnation of a Journal bootlicker from 1980? That’s mind blowing.