Can Nenshi charm the NDP old guard? He'll need to at this weekend's Provincial Council meeting

First, the Lethbridge by-election; then the federal NDP - do they stay or do they go?

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi speaks at a healthcare town hall forum in Lethbridge on October 1, 2024 (source: Naheed Nenshi / Instagram)

The next step in the Alberta NDP’s transformation from Rachel Notley’s NDP to Naheed Nenshi’s NDP takes place this weekend in Calgary.

NDP members from across Alberta will gather in the province’s largest city this weekend for the party’s first meeting of its Provincial Council since Nenshi won his landslide victory in the race to replace Notley.

Nenshi’s 86% win with 62,746 votes means there is no doubt who the vast majority of the party’s membership wanted as leader. But meaningfully connecting with the people in the room this weekend will be Nenshi’s next big step. 

Expect a charm offensive.

Nenshi spent a lot of time since his June leadership win reaching out to party volunteers and dealing with behind the scenes organizational issues, so this weekend will be a sort of internal party debut for the new leader. Many of the constituency association representatives and activists that will make the trip to the Calgary meeting will have first got involved in the NDP when Notley was leader, and some even before then.

NDP members are going to want to hear what Nenshi has to offer and, after a quiet summer during which some political observers asked “where’s Nenshi?”, they might have high expectations.

After 11 years as Mayor of Calgary, Nenshi got a lot of experience being the centre of attention in the political circus. But leading the official opposition party without a seat in the Legislature means getting media attention, especially not on terms set by the governing party, requires a bit more effort.

Nenshi’s low key summer hasn’t hurt the NDP in the polls though. He’s still the leader of the government-in-waiting and could be the next Premier.

A recent poll released by Cardinal Research shows the NDP sitting at 43 percent support across the province and ahead of Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party in Alberta’s two big cities with 50 percent in Calgary and 53 percent in Edmonton. But NDP support outside the two urban major centres sits at around 29 percent compared to 65 percent for the UCP.

Consolidating support in the two big cities is important for the NDP ahead of the next election, especially with an Electoral Boundaries Commission expected to be formed in the next year, but winning ridings in medium-sized cities like Lethbridge is a critical part of the NDP’s path to victory.

The Lethbridge-West by-election will be the first big test of Nenshi’s appeal outside of Calgary. Nenshi has been spending time campaigning with candidate Rob Miyashiro and he joined health critic Sarah Hoffman and Calgary-Varsity MLA Dr. Luanne Metz at a town hall focused on healthcare in that city earlier this week.

Nenshi thrives in front of a crowd, so it was no surprise to see a town hall meeting being held in conjunction with the Provincial Council in Calgary. The biggest public highlight of the weekend’s activities will give Nenshi an opportunity to charm the audience of party stalwarts with his trademark mix of policy talk and self-deprecating humour (with no doubt he’ll include some kind of joke about chemtrails).

In the business portion of the Provincial Council meeting, NDP members will choose a new Second Vice-President (an opportunity for a Nenshi loyalist to be named to the party’s governing board) and participate in an engagement session to provide feedback on the party’s constitution, operations, and finances. The engagement session is meant to collect feedback and will not include a formal debate or traditional resolution process, so the fireworks could be limited. 

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be any controversy. 

The Federal NDP Question

Section 1 of the Alberta NDP’s constitution notes its relationship with the federal NDP, an issue that was one of the few flashpoints in the recent leadership race. It was this issue that convinced Notley to blast Nenshi in the final days of the leadership race, though it did not seem to have any impact on his overwhelming win.

A complete split from the federal party might be a road too far for some of the NDP’s old guard, but in this case the party might consider following the lead of Alberta’s old Progressive Conservatives.

Back in 1991, Alberta PC Party members voted to end automatic membership in both parties in response to the declining popularity of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney’s PC government in Ottawa and the skyrocketing support for Preston Manning’s Reform Party in Western Canada. It didn’t completely split the two parties but it did create some political distance (the final constitutional split didn’t happen until 2012).

Nenshi’s team

Not having a seat in the Legislature adds an extra layer of challenges to anyone leading a party with MLAs in the Assembly but Nenshi is putting his stamp on the Official Opposition Caucus, something that will be highlighted to party members this weekend.

A new critic lineup announced last month confirmed important roles for Nenshi supporters like Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi as deputy leader, Calgary-Foothills MLA Court Ellingson as finance critic, Calgary-Glenmore MLA Nagwan Al-Guneid as energy and minerals critic, and Calgary-Falconridge MLA Parmeet Singh Boparai and Edmonton-Ellerslie MLA Rod Loyola as co-chairs of outreach for the caucus.

A staff shakeup at the NDP Caucus also landed Will Tigley a job as Director of Communications. Tigley played a similar role as Communications Lead during Nenshi’s final year in the Mayor’s Office.

Experienced Edmonton MLAs Christina Gray and David Eggen were tapped as Leader of the Official Opposition and House Leader, and Caucus Chair. The two veteran MLAs didn’t endorse anyone in the leadership race, have strong ties to traditional NDP supporters, and are well-respected in the labour-wing of the party.

Where will Nenshi run?

One big question that NDP supporters might ask Nenshi this weekend is when and where will he try to get elected to the Legislature. With three years until the next provincial election, there doesn’t seem to be a rush but it will be surprising if an opportunity isn’t opened up for Nenshi before then.

Aside from Lethbridge-West, the most obvious by-election that could happen in the next year would be triggered if Notley stepped down as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona. It’s arguably the safest NDP seat in Alberta. Notley was re-elected with 79.7 percent of the vote last year and the NDP has held it for 33 of the last 37 years.

But Nenshi’s big appeal in the leadership race was that he is the Mister Calgary of Alberta politics. Nenshi running in Edmonton-Strathcona would probably just be confusing for most voters and NDP supporters alike. That’s why keen political watchers are keeping an eye on former finance minister Joe Ceci, who was handed an important but low profile role as the NDP’s Arts and Culture critic.

Rachel Notley and Joe Ceci at the launch of his election campaign in Calgary-Fort during the 2015 Alberta election (source: Rachel Notley / Facebook)

Ceci is a veteran of Calgary politics, starting as a city councillor in 1995 and jumping into provincial politics in 2015. His decision to run for Notley’s NDP in 2015 was a big boost for the party ahead of that year’s historic election. He’s a close ally and running buddy of Notley’s and his downtown Calgary-Buffalo riding is one of the safest NDP seats in that city.

Even if Nenshi decided to run closer to his home turf in Calgary’s north east in the next election, Calgary-Buffalo would be an ideal place for the NDP to run its new leader in a by-election before then.

But future by-elections and a seat in the Legislature will have to wait. Nenshi’s job this weekend is to charm the NDP’s old guard.

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