Hey Dave! Who’s going to be the next Mayor of Edmonton?
Walters, Knack, Cartmell? It could be anyone's game.
“Hey Dave! Who’s going to be the next Mayor of Edmonton?”
That’s a question I get asked a lot these days. There are 23 days left in Edmonton’s municipal election campaign and I have no idea who is going to win the mayoral election.
Is it an open race for mayor?
Yes, it is. Incumbent Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is not running for re-election. Sohi was first elected Mayor in 2021 after serving on City Council from 2007 to 2015 and as a Member of Parliament and federal cabinet minister from 2015 to 2019.
Who are the frontrunners to replace Sohi?
The latest public opinion poll shows current councillors Tim Cartmell and Andrew Knack and former councillor Michael Walters leading the pack in a close three way race. But with nearly 50 percent of voters saying they are undecided, it could be anyone’s to win.
The Cardinal Research poll showed Walters with 15 per cent support and Cartmell and Knack with 13 per cent each, and 48 per cent of voters undecided. I don’t want to focus too much on the horse race, but that poll shows a pretty tight race in a big open field.
Cartmell was the first candidate to launch his campaign when he entered the race with a big “capital conversation” fundraiser at a downtown convention centre last spring. With the support of wealthy and well-connected business owners, a large campaign war-chest, and a made-for-Tim political party, for a brief period, he looked like the clear frontrunner.
But after four years of trying to position himself as the alternative to Sohi, any momentum Cartmell had appears to have stalled the moment he left for summer vacation instead of showing up for an important vote on the city’s controversial infill zoning bylaw. His attempts to regain that narrative have fallen flat.
Cartmell lost his frontrunner status but being the only mayoral candidate running under a political party banner — the Better Edmonton Party — means he ostensibly has the support of the candidates running on his city council slate (the lukewarm response to Cartmell’s party led him to announce it will go dormant after the election).
Whatever momentum Cartmell lost could be Michael Walters’ gain.
Walters is a former councillor and community organizer turned advertising company partner who launched his campaign right after Cartmell’s vacation vote fumble. Timing is everything in politics and Walters’ entry into the race was perfectly timed to offer an alternative to voters who wanted a Cartmell-like change in the mayor’s office but were unimpressed with the former frontrunner.
Walters has the support of former mayor Stephen Mandel, former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan, and former councillor Scott McKeen and, while I’m reluctant to describe any mayoral campaign as having momentum, his feels like it has some energy behind it.
Rounding up the top three contenders is west-end councillor Andrew Knack.
Knack has been an earnest voice on council who earned a reputation over his 12 years on city council for going far beyond what’s normally expected to engage with his constituents. Until a few months ago, Knack was known as a reliably moderate and centrist voice but in this mayoral election he’s been adopted as the closest thing to a progressive candidate.
Knack has the support of some prominent NDP and Liberal organizers as well as unions like CSU 52 and labour-backed third-party groups like Working Families Edmonton.
The Cartmell campaign’s decision to take aim at Knack by claiming in two consecutive emails to supporters that it is a race between him and Knack suggests to me that their real concern is Walters. But at this point in the campaign there’s not much evidence to show this is anything but a three-way race.
Who else is running?
There are 10 other candidates on the ballot, notably including former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer, former councillor Tony Caterina, and paediatric dental surgeon Dr. Omar Mohammad. The Cardinal poll showed Jaffer with 5 per cent support and Mohammad with 4 per cent.
Reemerging into electoral politics after a 17-year break, Jaffer is running a “back to basics” campaign that promises to “freeze the greed” and “take back our streets” and proposes to increase parking downtown and revive Edmonton.
Jaffer’s campaign is punchy and he’s probably the closest thing to an actual conservative candidate in this race but many of his proposals feel outdated and harken back to the Edmonton of the 1990s.
Former councillor Caterina’s campaign isn’t printing lawn signs but is instead asking his supporters to tie white ribbons on their front doors to show support for his bid for mayor.
What are the big issues of this campaign?
When I wrote about this election campaign a few months ago, the pack of moderate centrist candidates were running on platforms that mostly focused on affordability and taxes, public safety and crime, and better city management — and that still remains close to the case. The candidates have released different policies, but at this point a lot of the differences appear to be mostly about style and vibes.
Edmonton has grown in leaps and bounds over the past decade and that population growth has put all sorts of pressures on the municipal government. A lot of those pressure points involve construction needed to keep up with the services people demand — roads, transit, parks, and public services — and the taxes needed to be levied to pay for it.
Some of the pressures the city is feeling are a result of lack of planning and funding by the provincial government, like not building enough schools and hospitals to keep up with the population boom (Edmonton’s newest hospital was built in 1988). While new municipal affairs minister Dan Williams is eager to taunt the big cities with politically-charged threats, the next mayor will need to effectively stand up for the city’s 1.5 million residents in the face of a hostile rural-based provincial government.
The population boom has also put a lot of pressure on housing and the cost of living, which isn’t unique to Edmonton, but is causing the city to sprawl further and further away from its core. Growing pains aren’t just being felt at the city limits. Growth in older neighbourhoods is also a hot button issue after the city implemented a blanket zoning bylaw that allowed the construction of mid-block eight-plexes in mature neighbourhoods.
The homelessness, mental health and opioid crisis in Edmonton’s downtown is heartbreaking and undeniable. Years of success with the ambitious and aspirational 10-year plan to end homelessness appears to be largely undone. This crisis is not unique to Edmonton but how we treat and protect our most vulnerable neighbours has defined the past four years and will define the next mayor’s term in office.
Former mayor
wrote a thoughtful response to the current situation in Edmonton’s downtown and core neighbourhoods:
But really, Dave, who’s going to win?
Despite the crowded race for mayor, it remains a low-key and quiet affair. Drive through most neighbourhoods and you’re more likely to see signs on private lawns with the names of city council or school board candidates than anyone running for mayor.
Walters’ campaign feels like it has energy and Knack’s campaign has attracted an impressive group of progressive organizers but Cartmell could have an important edge. Despite a lacklustre campaign, Cartmell’s early start and party slate of council candidates (and their individual campaigns) might give him the fundraising and vote identification advantage needed to sneak a win on October 20.
With 23 days to go it could be anyone’s game.
Book Launch! Edmonton author Carissa Halton is launching her debut novel, Revolution Songs, on October 2.
Edmonton MP Heather McPherson to launch NDP leadership bid
Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson is expected to launch her campaign for the federal NDP leadership on September 28 at La Cité francophone. McPherson was first elected in 2019 and was one of seven NDP MPs re-elected in the recent federal election. She will be joined by supporters at the event, including former Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley, who served as Premier of Alberta from 2015 to 2019.
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