Is Naheed Nenshi ready to be the next Premier of Alberta?
Flashy new NDP ad gives a glimpse into what the NDP wants to fight for in the next election
Naheed Nenshi is ready. That’s the main message of a new campaign ad released by the Alberta New Democrats last week. The video reintroduces Nenshi to Albertans and tries to lay out some clear contrasts between his party and Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.
The new ad is reportedly the result of the Alberta NDP’s new relationship with the US-based Fight Agency, the political consultants behind Zohran Mamdani’s wildly successful campaign to become the next Mayor of New York City. And it’s an impressive ad.
Nenshi won the NDP leadership in a landslide in June 2024 but getting attention and staying on the radar has proven challenging for the three-term former Mayor of Calgary. His June 2025 by-election win in Edmonton-Strathcona was an easy hurdle to clear and a summer of travelling town hall meetings aimed to reignite the momentum that carried him to the party’s leadership.
The town halls were considered a success and gave Nenshi an opportunity to connect with NDP MLAs who had hoped Rachel Notley would be premier today, but after the tour wrapped up in September a lot of NDP supporters were left wondering “what’s next?”
And, until recently, one of the most frequent questions I was being asked was “where’s Nenshi?”
With a fairly exciting first two weeks in the Legislature, it appears Nenshi has returned to the political scene, leaving many party supporters to hope this flashy ad is just the start of what’s next on the road to the next provincial election, which is scheduled for October 2027 but could be held much earlier.
The ad reintroduces Nenshi by retelling his compelling backstory and making an emotional contrast between his NDP and Smith’s UCP on the big issues of affordability and cost of living, education, health care, and Alberta’s separation from Canada. Creating that contrast isn’t hard but communicating it in a clear and compelling way that breaks through the noise will take some effort.
Despite being one of the most recognizable politicians in Alberta after his 11 years as Mayor of Calgary, it’s still not entirely clear how Nenshi’s NDP is different from Notley’s NDP. That might be a big part of the “what’s next” many NDP supporters are waiting for.
It’s all about affordability
Five months ago I wrote about five opportunities facing Nenshi’s NDP in 2025, and the first was that they need to wake up every morning asking the question “how can we make life more affordable for working-class Alberta families?”
Nenshi’s decision to shuffle Sherwood Park MLA Kyle Kasawski into the Affordability and Utilities critic role last month is a good start. Kasawski was one of the bright additions to the NDP Caucus in the last election, and as the former president of a solar power company and instructor at NAIT, he will have a good grasp of the complicated electrical utility system that is frequently at the centre of the affordability debate in this province.
Smith’s UCP have been successful at deflecting criticism about affordability towards the federal Liberal government in Ottawa, but a private members’ bill introduced by Calgary-Mountain View MLA Kathleen Ganley was a timely reminder that the provincial government plays a big role in determining the cost of living.
Ganley’s bill would have increased the minimum wage from the current $15 per hour to $18 per hour by October 2027.
But like most opposition bills it was defeated. UCP MLAs voted against the bill at the second reading stage yesterday.
“Today UCP MLAs had the chance to stand with workers, vote for higher wages, and help put the basics back within reach of more Albertans”, Ganley said in a blistering press release. “Instead, the UCP decided to vote against workers and to keep Alberta’s minimum wage the lowest in the country.”
The NDP’s efforts to raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour are well intentioned and a step in the right direction but their proposed increase would still fall far below what Alberta Living Wage Network identified in a report this week as the living wages in communities across Alberta.
The organization’s report shows hourly living wages to be $29 in Airdrie, $26.50 in Calgary, $25.60 in St. Albert, $23.40 in High River, $22.30 in Edmonton and Lethbridge, and $21.80 in Grande Prairie.
Nenshi won’t make deals with separatists
Nenshi’s NDP have also staked out a position firmly in the pro-Canada camp in the Alberta separatism debate, but embracing the status quo might not be good enough.
As we discussed on the Alberta Edge Podcast last month, there is a large group of Albertans who are not separatists but are unhappy with Alberta’s relationship with Ottawa. A lot of those Albertans don’t want the province to leave Canada and are open to proposals about how to improve the province’s role in Confederation.
Right now, Smith has been successfully walking the precarious line between that group and the burgeoning separatist wing of the UCP who are openly calling for Alberta’s independence or joining the United States.
With a separation referendum in the next year a real possibility, there is a receptive audience waiting for Nenshi to share some concrete and aspirational ideas aimed at improving Alberta’s position within Canada.
Health care is fertile ground for the NDP
The NDP can lay claim to being the founders of public health care in Canada and Alberta’s one-term NDP government oversaw what probably was one of the most stable periods in the health care system. But the NDP have largely been silent in response to the large-scale restructuring and privatization scheme that UCP are pursuing while dismantling Alberta Health Services, the province-wide public health authority created in 2009.
Despite Smith’s promise to fix health care in 90-days, more than 1,000 days later none of the now-four health ministers can clearly explain how the UCP’s massive bureaucratic restructuring will improve care for patients. In fact, the cannibalizing of AHS has largely been overshadowed in the public spotlight by alleged political interference with big money private surgical contracts, roadblocks created to stop Albertans from getting the COVID-19 vaccine, and an outbreak that led to Canada losing its measles-free status.
There also appears to be an increasing number of Albertans who are unhappy with the direction the province is headed. A Leger poll released last month showed that 61 per cent of Albertans believed the province is on the wrong track, a 10 point jump from a few months earlier, and Smith’s own approval rating dipped from 44 per cent to 38 per cent.
And a wave of recall campaigns being launched against UCP MLAs has given some of those unhappy Albertans an avenue to channel their frustration with Smith’s government.
So there are some natural openings and opportunities for Nenshi’s NDP, but it will take hard work and more than just one ad, no matter how good that ad is.
Nenshi will need to out hustle Danielle Smith
Notwithstanding Danielle Smith’s faults, her government’s scandals and bullying, and her party’s controversies and culture war politics, she remains a skilled communicator and one of the hardest working retail politicians in Alberta. Smith also understands her electoral coalition, what issues make her party’s most enthusiastic supporters tick, and how easily her voter base could shatter over issues like Alberta’s separation from Canada.
Smith has also been unrelenting in implementing her UCP government’s agenda.
The NDP will face some of the same electoral math challenges that made the party’s path to victory so narrow in 2023. Nenshi’s party will need to figure out how to break through into medium and smaller urban areas that overwhelmingly voted UCP in the last election.
Most polls show the NDP has regained support after dipping over the summer and remain relatively competitive in fundraising. The party also scored convincing wins in the recent Lethbridge-West and Edmonton-Ellerslie by-elections, two urban ridings where the UCP had hoped to make gains.
Nenshi will have to outwork Smith, and it won’t be easy. Nenshi will need to be present, be visible, and connect with Albertans to prove that he is indeed ready to be the next Premier of Alberta.
NDP staff turnover and changes
One of the ways Nenshi has made his mark on the Alberta NDP after Notley’s departure is through a significant turnover of senior staff at the party and caucus offices.
