It’s all about the UCP leadership review
Protected rights for the unvaccinated and tax cuts aimed at appeasing unruly UCP members ahead of November vote
I’m back! After a slower than planned return from my summer break, I am happy to share this Alberta politics column with you today.
But, before I get to today’s column, I know many readers will have been following the news about the devastating wildfire that has raged through the beautiful mountain town of Jasper and Jasper National Park.
Jasper is a special place where many of us spend our vacations hiking, skiing, canoeing, and camping. Let’s support our friends and neighbours from Jasper as they recover and rebuild from this wildfire tragedy. If you’re able, please consider donating to the Canadian Red Cross 2024 Alberta Wildfires relief or other efforts.
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Today’s column
It’s all about the UCP leadership review
Protected rights for the unvaccinated and tax cuts aimed at appeasing unruly UCP members ahead of November vote
Summer is normally a time when politics cools down and politicians hit the BBQ circuit, but there’s something smelly in the air and it’s not just the wildfire smoke that Albertans have become accustomed to being part of our increasingly hot summers.
A political scandal surrounding Premier Danielle Smith and senior United Conservative Party cabinet ministers accepting tickets to skybox seats during the Edmonton Oilers NHL playoff run has erupted. Globe & Mail journalist Carrie Tait first broke the story that Smith and some UCP cabinet ministers had accepted box seat tickets to NHL playoff hockey games from private corporations that have close connections to or are lobbying the Alberta government.
The Premier appeared visibly annoyed when Tait asked about the hockey tickets at a recent government press conference and Smith has been noticeably careful with the language she has used when responding to questions from reporters.
Smith’s strange argument that she is not responsible for her staff has only put more attention to the rumours that senior political staffers in the government allegedly accepted tickets and flights from well-connected business people. While the rumours are unproven for now, they were the talk of the town on the political BBQ circuit during this year’s Calgary Stampede.
It doesn’t make the situation any better for Smith that the UCP changed the rules about gifts to politicians earlier this year and appointed a former UCP nomination candidate as Alberta’s new Ethics Commissioner.
This is all unravelling ahead of the mandatory leadership review that Smith will face at the UCP annual general meeting on November 1 and 2 at Westerner Park in Red Deer. Smith has launched a charm offensive ahead of the vote aimed directly at UCP members who might be starting to feel a little skeptical about the Premier’s leadership.
Smith is criss-crossing the province over the next month to headline about a dozen UCP member-only town hall meetings. She has already spoken at member-only meetings in in Bonnyville, Coaldale, and High River, and will be front and centre at an online town hall tonight and in-person town halls in La Crête and Peace River on August 7, Grande Prairie on August 8, Olds on August 10, and Lacombe on August 17.
Smith also spoke at a ticketed town hall meeting hosted by Calgary-Lougheed UCP MLA Eric Bouchard this week, where she faced questions that are front of mind for many party activists planning to vote in the leadership review.
Journalist Katie Teeling live-tweeted Smith’s Calgary town hall, where the Premier answered questions from UCP members about COVID-19 vaccinations, climate change denial, leaving the Canada Pension Plan, election tabulator fraud, provincial sovereignty, protecting doctors who prescribe ivermectin, and much more.
Teeling’s tweets are important snapshots but not verbatim quotes, because it does not appear anyone from the mainstream media or political columnists were in the room. But it does give us pretty clear idea of what issues are paramount for the most motivated group of UCP members.
The topics of the questions also explain a lot about Smith, who honed in on some of these issues with laser focus during the UCP’s 2022 leadership race and later declined to talk about them during the 2023 provincial election.
Speaking to more than 300 UCP members in Bonnyville last month, Smith reiterated her plans to introduce amendments to the Alberta Bill of Rights in the upcoming fall session of the Legislature to protect the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated for COVID-19.
Smith promised to make this change during her 2022 leadership campaign but quietly pushed the controversial idea aside in order to moderate her image during last year’s election. The slow pace of change on this issue has led to increased grumbling in some circles of UCP supporters.
Smith announced during a December 2023 interview on the Shawn Newman Podcast that she had tasked Red Deer-South UCP MLA Jason Stephan with reviewing the COVID-19 report prepared by former Reform Party leader Preston Manning and recommending changes to public health laws. Smith told Newman that the Bill of Rights could also be amended to include other protections and she mentioned firearms ownership rights as an example of a protection that she believed could be considered.
Smith also recently told Postmedia columnist Rick Bell that tax cuts initially promised during the 2023 election and later delayed until 2027 will be announced this fall instead.
These promises and much of the UCP’s fall legislative agenda will be aimed at the leadership review and quelling any internal dissent among Smith’s base of supporters.
Over the two past UCP AGMs, slates of candidates backed by right-wing populists groups, including Take Back Alberta and the Alberta Prosperity Project, have managed to take control of the UCP’s provincial executive board and many of the party’s most active and well-funded constituency associations. Many of the people elected to the UCP board and their supporters cut their political teeth protesting public health measures meant to stop the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and that remains one of their key issues.
Smith’s support among the coalition that helped her sweep the UCP leadership race two years ago has started to fray, most notably with Take Back Alberta executive director David Parker and former Fort Macleod town councillor Marco Van Huigenbos publicly criticizing the Premier. But her promise to expand human rights protections to people who refuse to get vaccinated and shifting date of the promised tax cut will likely be enough to quell any serious rebellion against her in the UCP ranks.
Smith remains an incredibly divisive politician, but, despite her embracing some pretty extreme and just plain weird politics and conspiracy theories, she does remain one of the most skilled communicators in the conservative movement in Canada today.
It would be foolish to underestimate Danielle Smith, because what happens this fall in Alberta politics is as clear as a smoky Alberta sky.
Leadership reviews can be risky
The AGM in November will mark the first time UCP members will have a chance to vote in a leadership review since Premier Jason Kenney’s political career was dealt a fatal blow in 2022.
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