Nenshi and Harper endorsements set tone for final weekend of Alberta's election
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Nenshi and Harper endorsements set tone for final weekend of Alberta's election
But maybe Albertans made up their minds a long time ago.
There are two days left until Election Day in Alberta.
I was planning on taking a short break from writing election commentary this morning, but I decided I had a few thoughts I wanted to share about some recent high-profile election endorsements.
Former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi endorsed the Alberta NDP and joined leader Rachel Notley on a whistle stop tour through 8 Calgary ridings yesterday afternoon.
The normally non-partisan Nenshi penned a thoughful endorsement of the NDP earlier in the day:
“I’ve never done this before, and I take it very seriously. It’s not because it brings out the colour of my eyes – well not just because it brings out the colour of my eyes. Purple is a combination of red and blue and I wear it to remind myself and others that we are not defined by our political tribe but by our common humanity.
For me, this means not only being in the political centre, but also that I need to engage with politics and elections fluidly and based on the context of the moment, as well as who is running. I have voted for at least four different parties provincially and federally, and for municipal candidates all over the ideological map. And this time, I’m voting NDP.”
He and his conservative former rival Jeromy Farkas have both been publicly critical of the United Conservative Party during the campaign.
The UCP released a second endorsement video from prime minister Stephen Harper yesterday.
Unlike the first video from Harper that was released at the start of the campaign, in this video the former prime minister mentions UCP leader Danielle Smith and her party by name.
In the 59-second video, Harper repeats a handful of key UCP talking points about Notley and the NDP’s economic record, but the part that personally bothered me was when he warned that “the Trudeau Liberals are voting NDP in this election.”
I understand Harper was trying to draw a connection between Notley and Justin Trudeau but the voters he was talking about are Albertans who have voted for the federal Liberals. It felt like an unnecessarily divisive way to talk about people who could be our family, friends and neighours. But I guess that’s politics in 2023.
The federal Conservatives remain a strong force in Alberta but provincial politics have changed dramatically since Harper left elected office. Many Albertans who voted for Harper’s Conservatives in his last election in 2015 now cast their ballots for Notley’s NDP. Some are even planning to not vote at all.
The second Harper endorsement video was released the day after current federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre released a similar endorsement video.
Neither Harper or Poilievre have been seen in-person on the campaign trail. The UCP’s 2000-person rally this week feels like it would have been a picture perfect moment for Smith to be joined on stage by Harper and Poilievre.
During the 2019 election, then-leader of the federal Conservatives Andrew Scheer travelled to Alberta to campaign alongside then-leader of the UCP Jason Kenney.
The two leaders spoke to a rally in Calgary and were later photographed in an Irish pub wearing Calgary Flames jerseys (the Flames were playing the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs). Kenney later returned the favour by spending a week campaigning for Scheer’s Conservatives in Toronto-area ridings in the 2019 federal election.
Endorsements by high-profile figures can sometimes lend credibility and generate media attention for parties and leaders, but with the two main parties so equally matched and deeply entrenched in the polls, it’s unclear what impact these final weekend endorsements will have on Monday night’s results.
Perhaps in this election, which has often been marked as being outside politics as usual, Albertans made up their minds a long time ago.
Nenshi and Harper endorsements set tone for final weekend of Alberta's election
A long time ago I was doing some reading on persuasion and I seem to remember that unexpected endorsements are more effective than the usual suspects showing up. So, if that is close to what the research shows, perhaps Jeromy's blasts against Conservatives are more effective than Harper's and Poilievre's. In that vein, many UCP probably viewed Nenshi as left anyways, so perhaps that one is less surprising or less likely to move voters. Given we're talking some ridings may be really close, perhaps it's enough to sway the needed numbers... We'll see.