Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta

Danielle Smith's UCP wins a slimmer, rural-heavy majority government

Alberta’s election results as of 2:00 am on May 30. Blue represents ridings won by the UCP, orange ridings were won by the NDP (map source: CanadianPolling.ca)

Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party will form a majority government in Alberta and Rachel Notley’s NDP will form the Official Opposition.

As of 2:00am, the UCP has 49 seats and the NDP has 38, which I believe is the closest election result in Alberta’s history. There are still some remaining polls that haven’t reported in a few Calgary ridings with tight races, so those numbers could shift slightly.

According to Elections Alberta at 2:00am, the UCP earned 926,918 votes (52.5%) and the NDP earned 776,188 votes (44%) province-wide. Voter turnout was 62.3%.

This election has been a wild ride and the electoral map shows a deeply divided province.

The UCP replicated its 2019 results with big wins in most rural ridings outside the two major cities and the NDP held Edmonton like the fortress it has been for the party since 2015. The two parties competed in closely fought races in Calgary, with the NDP appearing to win 14 seats and the UCP holding 12 in that city.

Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta

UCP leader Danielle Smith on election night in Calgary (source: Danielle Smith / Facebook)

Even if the Conservatives look like they are bruised, limping and even acting like they are trying to lose, it’s still not safe to bet against them in Alberta.

There’s no doubt that Danielle Smith was able to save her party from the political defeat it appeared headed for when Jason Kenney was premier. Smith dubbed last night’s win another “miracle on the prairies” in her victory speech, an homage to former premier Ralph Klein’s victory in 1993. But that was a very different time and Smith is a very different kind of politician.