Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta
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Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta
Danielle Smith's UCP wins a slimmer, rural-heavy majority government
Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party will form a majority government in Alberta and Rachel Notley’s NDP will form the Official Opposition.
As of 2:00am, the UCP has 49 seats and the NDP has 38, which I believe is the closest election result in Alberta’s history. There are still some remaining polls that haven’t reported in a few Calgary ridings with tight races, so those numbers could shift slightly.
According to Elections Alberta at 2:00am, the UCP earned 926,918 votes (52.5%) and the NDP earned 776,188 votes (44%) province-wide. Voter turnout was 62.3%.
This election has been a wild ride and the electoral map shows a deeply divided province.
The UCP replicated its 2019 results with big wins in most rural ridings outside the two major cities and the NDP held Edmonton like the fortress it has been for the party since 2015. The two parties competed in closely fought races in Calgary, with the NDP appearing to win 14 seats and the UCP holding 12 in that city.
Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta
Even if the Conservatives look like they are bruised, limping and even acting like they are trying to lose, it’s still not safe to bet against them in Alberta.
There’s no doubt that Danielle Smith was able to save her party from the political defeat it appeared headed for when Jason Kenney was premier. Smith dubbed last night’s win another “miracle on the prairies” in her victory speech, an homage to former premier Ralph Klein’s victory in 1993. But that was a very different time and Smith is a very different kind of politician.
A win is a win. This UCP win is the smallest seat count of any conservative government in Alberta since 1971, and it is far from the crushing victory Kenney led the party to in 2019.
The UCP lost at least 12 ridings in Calgary and the Edmonton area, including those represented by six cabinet ministers. Smith’s co-deputy premier Kaycee Madu was defeated by NDP candidate Nathan Ip in Edmonton-South West and health minister Jason Copping was unseated by the NDP’s Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity, and at 2:00am, justice minister Tyler Shandro was a narrow 7-points behind NDP candidate Diana Batten in Calgary-Acadia (scroll down to find a full list of seats that switched parties).
When Smith told Rick Bell last October that the UCP could lose half of its seats in Calgary and still form government, last night’s results are what she was talking about. But that’s going to be little consolation for defeated UCP MLAs. Losing so many seats in the province’s largest city is going to sting and raise questions about whether the populist politics driving Smith’s version of the UCP have a lasting appeal in a diverse and growing city like Calgary (the next electoral boundaries redistribution could happen before the next election).
It will be very interesting to watch the new dynamics in the smaller and more rural-heavy UCP Caucus, the role of the remaining Calgary MLAs, how the newly elected Take Back Alberta-backed candidates integrate into the governing caucus, and, of course, deciding who gets appointed to cabinet. How Smith navigates this will be a real test of her leadership skills, and probably determine how rocky things will be within the UCP Caucus over the next four years.
There’s also the question of how long UCP candidate Jennifer Johnson, who was elected in Lacombe-Ponoka, sits as an Independent MLA. Smith said she could not join the UCP Caucus after making monstrous comments about transgender children.
Governments are usually afforded a honeymoon period after the votes are counted to figure out these kinds of details. I expect Smith’s crew will start that work very soon and not try to spoil that opportunity.
An NDP win was within sight but out of grasp
Rachel Notley’s NDP were stung in 2015 with the moniker of being an “accidental government” but even though the NDP fell short of forming government I don’t think anyone can claim any of the votes they earned in this election were accidental.
Despite the 11-seats gained by Notley’s party in Calgary, not forming government made it a heartbreaking night for NDP supporters. The party’s big lead in the polls evaporated last November and it was unable to break the duelling leads it became locked into with the UCP going into this election.
The NDP’s path to victory was always much narrower and more difficult than the UCP’s. Going into this election with 23 seats, the NDP needed a clean sweep of Calgary and the donut of suburban ridings surrounding Edmonton to get to a bare majority of 44 seats. A win was within sight but out of grasp.
The NDP made big gains in Calgary but still came up short and were only able to win two additional seats outside of the two major cities - Sherwood Park and Banff-Kananaskis.
The NDP is a much different party than it was eight years ago when Notley first became leader. She took the NDP from a fourth place party with 4 MLAs to form government in 2015 and then lead its rebuild into a viable opposition party after its defeat in 2019.
Notley’s NDP made a conscious effort to shift to the political center and recruit candidates who would appeal to moderate conservatives voters uncomfortable with Smith’s UCP. That shift paid off with the gains it saw in Calgary.
One of Notley’s big jobs now will be trying to figure out how those new Calgary MLAs will work as part of an opposition team. Most of them don’t come from traditional NDP backgrounds and might have had high hopes of becoming cabinet ministers sooner than after the next election.
The NDP is now an urban opposition to a rural-heavy UCP government.
But that doesn’t mean the NDP don’t have difficult questions it should be asking.
The NDP needs to ask why it came up short in Edmonton area ridings like Morinville-St. Albert, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, and Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville, why it has been unable to make gains in the rural areas it won in 2015, and what it needs to do to win enough Calgary seats next time to form government.
And there will be questions about Notley’s leadership, though I doubt there will be any serious move to replace her as leader. If she is going to leave it will be at a time of her choosing, and it might not be anytime soon.
The other parties
This election was a real two-party race and none of the smaller parties were able to get traction in this vote. Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita finished a distant third in Brooks-Medicine Hat with 6.2% of the vote, and the party’s hopeful in Calgary-Elbow, Kerry Cundal, finished with 4.5% in the riding.
Green Party leader Jordan Wilkie finished with 4% in Edmonton-Rutherford.
Ridings that changed hands
As of 2:00 am on May 30, it looks like 16 ridings have changed hands between the parties in this election (some may be pending a recount or uncounted polls, so some of these results are not final):
Banff-Kananaskis: NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi defeated UCP candidate Miranda Rosin. Rosin was first elected in 2019 and is the Parliamentary Secretary for Tourism.
Calgary-Acadia: NDP candidate Diana Batten has a narrow 7-vote lead over UCP candidate Tyler Shandro. Shandro was first elected in 2019 and is Minister of Justice and Attorney General.
Calgary-Beddington: NDP candidate Amanda Chapman defeated UCP candidate Josephine Pon. Pon was first elected in 2019.
Calgary-Currie: NDP candidate Janet Eremenko defeated UCP candidate Nicholas Milliken. Milliken was first elected in 2019 and is the Minister of Mental Health and Addiction.
Calgary-Edgemont: NDP candidate Julia Hayter defeated UCP candidate Prasad Panda. Panda was first elected in 2015.
Calgary-Elbow: NDP candidate Samir Kayande defeated UCP candidate Chris Davis. The riding was previously represented by UCP MLA Doug Schweitzer, who resigned as MLA in August 2022.
Calgary-Falconridge: NDP candidate Parmeet Singh Boparai defeated UCP candidate Devinder Toor. Toor was first elected in 2019.
Calgary-Foothills: NDP candidate Court Ellingson defeated UCP candidate Jason Luan. Luan was first elected in this riding in 2019 and is Minister of Culture.
Calgary-Glenmore: NDP candidate Nagwan Al-Guneid has a narrow 30-vote lead over UCP candidate Whitney Issik. Issik was first elected in 2019.
Calgary-Klein: NDP candidate Lizette Tejada defeated UCP candidate Jeremy Nixon. Nixon was first elected in 2019 and is Minister of Seniors, Community and Social Services.
Calgary-North East: NDP candidate Gurinder Brar defeated UCP candidate Inder Grewal. The riding was previously represented by UCP MLA Rajan Sawhney, who ran and was elected in Calgary-North West.
Calgary-Varsity: NDP candidate Luanne Metz defeated UCP candidate Jason Copping. Copping was first elected in 2019 and is the Minister of Health.
Cypress-Medicine Hat: UCP candidate Justin Wright defeated NDP candidate Cathy Hogg. This riding was previously represented by Independent MLA Drew Barnes, who was elected as UCP candidate in 2019 and removed from the UCP Caucus in 2021. Barnes did not seek re-election.
Edmonton-South: NDP candidate Rhiannon Hoyle defeated UCP candidate Joseph Angeles. The riding was previously represented by Independent MLA Thomas Dang, who was elected as an NDP candidate in 2019 but left the caucus in 2021. Dang did not seek re-election.
Edmonton-South West: NDP candidate Nathan Ip defeated UCP candidate Kaycee Madu. Madu was first elected in 2019 and is the co-deputy premier and Minister of Skilled Trades and Professions.
Sherwood Park: NDP candidate Kyle Kasawski defeated UCP candidate Jordan Walker. Walker was first elected in 2019.
Predicting the vote
I joined Ryan Jespersen on RealTalk yesterday morning to talk about some of the key ridings I was planning to watch on election night, including Calgary-Glenmore, Calgary-Bow, Calgary-North West, Sherwood Park, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, Lethbridge-East and Banff-Kananaskis. It was a fun segment and I think a good preview of last night’s results.
Never bet against the Conservatives in Alberta
Going forward there are, it seems to me, two matters of particular interest.
First, who will Premier Smith name as Attorney General? I stand to be corrected, but to my knowledge the only Member of the Law Society of Alberta that is a sitting Member of the UCP is Brian Jean. The Attorney General does not have to be a lawyer (but the Deputy must be a Law Society Member in good standing), but since the Attorney General is the Chief Legal Officer of the Government, it does make sense to have a lawyer in that position.
Second, and of even more significance, The work of the Ethics Commissioner concerning her investigation of Premier Smith is not yet concluded. She specifically (and rightly) concludes her Investigation Report by reserving the right to make a Recommendation to the Legislative Assembly following the Election. Here is what the Conflicts of Interest Act says in this regard:
Ethics Commissioner’s report
27(1) A report by the Ethics Commissioner to the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly under section 25(12) must be concise and may set out the following:
(a) the facts relating to the alleged breach found by the Ethics Commissioner,
(b) the Ethics Commissioner’s findings as to whether the individual under investigation has breached or contravened this Act and, if so,
(i) the nature of the breach or contravention of this Act, including any contravention of advice, recommendations or directions or conditions of any approval given by the Ethics Commissioner, and
(ii) the Ethics Commissioner’s recommendation for the sanction, if any, that the Legislative Assembly may impose on a Member for a breach,
and
(c) the Ethics Commissioner’s recommendations, if any.
(1.1) Notwithstanding subsection (1), if a report relates to a former Minister who is no longer a Member or to a former member of the Premier’s and Ministers’ staff, subsection (1)(b)(ii) does not apply.
(2) The Ethics Commissioner may recommend any one of the following sanctions:
(a) that the Member be reprimanded;
(b) that a penalty be imposed on the Member in an amount recommended by the Ethics Commissioner;
(c) that the Member’s right to sit and vote in the Legislative Assembly be suspended for a stated period or until the fulfilment of a condition;
(d) that the Member be expelled from membership of the Legislative Assembly,
and may also recommend the alternative of a lesser sanction or no sanction if the Member carries out recommendations in the report for the rectification of the breach.
Only the Assembly may actually impose a sanction against a Member, and of course the UCP does have a majority, so they may well vote to not impose whatever sanction is Recommended by the Commissioner (assuming such Recommendation is made).
Given the Commissioner's opinion that attempting to influence a criminal prosecution brings the administration into disrepute, that would seem on the face to be particularly egregious from which it follows that the sanction Recommended ought to reflect that.
Dave, the same headline could be written that the leadership of Danielle Smith as leader of the UCP, has risen from the walking dead at the end of the Kenney term back to a majority.
Or, this one Notley loses again despite all odds being in her favor nine months ago if u remember the polls