Rachel Notley made the NDP relevant in Alberta
Notley announces she won't lead the NDP into the next election, kicking off a leadership race
It’s the end of an era in Alberta politics. Former premier Rachel Notley announced today that she will not lead the Alberta NDP into the next election.
Alberta politics hasn’t been the same since Notley won the leadership of the NDP almost ten years ago.
When the 3,589 votes were counted on October 18, 2014, Notley won 70 percent of the vote and assumed the leadership of a party that was in fourth place with 4 MLAs and hadn’t won a seat outside of Edmonton in 25 years.
That all changed in Spring 2015, when Notley and her NDP slayed the 44-year old Progressive Conservative dynasty and shattered the mould of Alberta politics.
All safe bets in that election favoured the long-in-the-tooth PCs getting re-elected for a 13th consecutive term in government, but Jim Prentice’s decision to call an early election on the heels of an unpopular budget, the controversial floor crossing by Danielle Smith and most Wildrose MLAs, and the plummeting international price of oil, was devastating for that party.
The PCs really believed they were invincible. Notley proved they weren’t.
Notley was impressive in that election. She brought a new kind of energy and professionalism to the NDP campaign that the party had never seen before in Alberta. A few killer blows in the televised leaders debate solidified her as Albertans chosen alternative, but the PC’s also met her halfway by running one of the clumsiest re-election campaigns in recent memory (with a little help from their friends).
Timing is everything in politics and Notley was in the right place at the right time.
Winning the 2015 election turned out to be the easy part. Being the first new government in Alberta in 44 years was a lot harder.
Notley walked a fairly moderate line as premier but the collapsing international price of oil created a mountain of challenges for a party that promised big reinvestments in public services. Economic times were tough for a lot of Albertans and the NDP did themselves no favours by fumbling the introduction of farm worker safety laws and the closure of rural coal-fired power plants, and embracing an unpopular carbon tax.
The oil pipeline debates that sucked up so much of the political oxygen during that period created a clash between the Alberta NDP and its counterparts in British Columbia and Ottawa. In the end, Notley ended up being one of the most pro-pipeline premiers Alberta has seen.
The NDP racked up some notable accomplishments during Notley’s time as premier, like raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour, building the Calgary Cancer Centre, cutting child poverty in half, reforming many of Alberta’s outdated labour and workplace safety laws, and providing stability that our public health care and education systems hadn’t seen in decades.
But perhaps the most notable lasting change that Notley left in Alberta politics is breaking the province’s long history of one-party dominance.
The NDP lost re-election in 2019 to Jason Kenney’s new United Conservative Party, but being in government for four years left the party more politically sophisticated and with a caucus that includes MLAs with cabinet experience, something that is far from normal in Alberta politics.
The NDP’s painfully close loss in the 2023 election was heartbreaking for its supporters, but it left the party and caucus in better financial and organizational shape than it probably has ever been.
A few months ago, a UCP MLA asked me why I thought NDP members didn’t demand Notley’s resignation after the party failed to form government in 2023. If the UCP had lost the election, I was told, there is no way that Danielle Smith would have remained party leader. It would have been bloodbath.
The answer? The Alberta NDP is a different political beast. Unlike conservatives in Alberta, the NDP aren’t accustomed to winning every single election, so winning 38 seats and making major gains in Calgary was a pretty decent consolation prize. The lack of open rebellion against a leader who had led the party to lose two elections speaks to the level of discipline Notley has over the party and caucus, and the deep respect that many NDP supporters have for her and what she has done for their party.
It’s because Rachel Notley made the NDP relevant in Alberta.
From Notley’s announcement
The most emotional part of Notley’s announcement today occured when she spoke about her parents, Sandy Notley and Grant Notley, who led the party from 1968 to 1984, and the values they instilled in her:
“I was raised by both my father and mother to believe that public service is something one should strive for throughout your life.
I wish they could have been here to see some of what we’ve accomplished.
Either way it would not have happened with the examples they both set - demonstrating daily the value of hard work, compassion for our neighbours and the importance of social democratic convictions.”
What’s next?
From what we learned at today’s announcement, Notley will remain party leader until her successor is chosen and could possibly even remain as MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona until the next election. Notley quashed rumours that she might jump into federal politics, saying she has no plans to jump into the federal arena.
Alberta NDP President Nancy Janovicek issued a statement saying that the party’s Provincial Council will meet on Jan. 27, 2024 in Red Deer to discuss leadership rules and timelines.
The Alberta NDP constitution outlines how the party chooses its leaders.
Article 6.01(a)(i) of the constitution says that “the ballots cast by Party members shall be weighted to a total of at least 75% of the votes counted in a leadership election, with the balance of up to 25% of the votes being allocated among the affiliated members.The Provincial Council shall determine the exact percentage to be allocated to affiliates, based on the number of affiliated organizations at the time that the Leadership election is called.”
It’s unclear whether those rules will change ahead of this leadership race.
Janovicek also announced that Amanda Freistadt has been appointed as Chief Returning Officer. Freistadt is a longtime party volunteer and former treasurer of Alberta NDP. She was recently hired by the party to facilitate its Election Debrief process. She currently lives in Regina where she works as Director of Labour Relations for the Saskatchewan General Employees Union.
Look who’s running
While Notley just announced her plans today, potential candidates have been very carefully and quietly testing the waters for months. I wrote about who might run for the NDP leadership back in November 2023, and there has been plenty of discussion since, with Calgary-Mountain View MLA Kathleen Ganley, Edmonton-Glenora MLA Sarah Hoffman, and Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Rakhi Pancholi frequently named as early frontrunners.
Ganley, who has been an MLA since 2015, released a video on her social media accounts last week that many political watchers interpreted as a soft-launch of her leadership campaign. She served as Minister of Justice from 2015 to 2019 and currently serves critic for energy and climate focusing on oil & gas, natural gas, minerals & hydrogen.
I expect we’ll hear more from the others soon.
A few more things…
Jeremy Appel will launch his new book, Kenneyism, on Feb. 6 at the Aviary in Edmonton. The launch will feature an Q&A with Appel and veteran political columnist Graham Thomson. I had a chance to read an advance copy of the book and it is quite good and worth adding to your political reading list in 2024.
Premier Danielle Smith is heading to Ottawa on Feb. 5 where she will be a special guest at a reception organized by the Canada Strong & Free Network (formerly known as the Manning Centre). An email invitation from the group says that Smith will be joined by “a number of Cabinet ministers.”
Federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will be in Edmonton on Jan. 23 for a cost of living town hall. The location of the event has not yet been announced but it is expected to be attended by Edmonton-Griesbach MP Blake Desjarlais, Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson, and public school trustee Trisha Estabrooks, who has been nominated as the party’s candidate in Edmonton-Centre.
Thank you
We’re halfway through the first month of 2024 and there’s no shortage of topics in Alberta politics that I want to write about! I’m happy to share this first Daveberta newsletter of 2024 for free to the more than 3,500 subscribers (!) who have signed up on Substack. If you want full access to all Daveberta columns and episodes of the Daveberta Podcast, please consider signing up for a paid subscription.
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Thanks,
Dave