Ten big questions about Alberta separatism in 2025

Is Premier Danielle Smith a separatist? Is the UCP a separatist party?

The Alberta Prosperity Project’s Jeffrey Rath shows off the separatist group’s proposed referendum question in Calgary (source: Facebook).

Are separatist parties a new thing in Alberta politics?

No. Separatist parties are not new in Alberta politics. There have usually one or two separatist parties occupying the far right-wing fringes of Alberta politics at any given time. The six parties supporting some version of separatism in the 2023 Alberta general election earned a combined 15,556 votes out of the total 1,777,321 votes cast. That’s 0.8 percent of the vote.

The federal Maverick Party, which was created by the Wexit separatist group in 2020 was dissolved in February 2025 after failing to properly submit its financial disclosures to Elections Canada, so there were no openly western separatist parties on the ballot in the recent federal election.

The only separatist party candidate ever elected to Alberta’s Legislative Assembly was Gordon Kesler. The Western Canada Concept candidate won a February 1982 by-election and then lost a bid for re-election in the a different riding in the November 1982 general election.

That year’s election was a high-water mark for the WCC. The party won 11 percent of the province-wide vote but failed to elect any MLAs. It faded into obscurity not long after Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives defeated the Liberals in the 1984 federal election and earned 0.65 percent of the vote in the 1986 provincial election. No separatist party has earned anywhere close to 10 percent of the vote in a general election since 1982.

Is Premier Danielle Smith a separatist?

NDP leader Naheed Nenshi thinks so.

It’s well-known that Smith’s political agenda is heavily influenced by the Free Alberta Strategy co-authored by her Chief of Staff, Rob Anderson. While she has stopped short of endorsing or denouncing separatism, she helped lay the groundwork for the current separatist narrative when she threatened a national unity crisis if Canadians elected Mark Carney’s Liberals.

Smith’s United Conservative Party government made it easier to collect signatures to trigger a province-wide referendum by lowering the number of signatures needed to force a vote. It’s unclear what would happen if a majority of Albertans supported a separation referendum, as it is not binding on the rest of Canada or compliant with process laid out in the Clarity Act. It would certainly create a political crisis.

The difference between this separatist push and past efforts is that today’s most vocal separatists are operating within the governing UCP. Smith gave her tacit public support for these groups in an online video address earlier this month and she knows that any direct effort to try to stop it would turn those groups, which included some of the UCP’s most enthusiastic activists, against her.

Many of those enthusiastic separatists inside the UCP helped topple former Premier Jason Kenney in 2022 and propel Smith to victory in the leadership race that followed. Writer

Jen Gerson

cleverly described Smith’s situation through one rule of politics: you get ate by the dragon you ride in on.

Is the UCP a separatist party?

According to a poll released by Angus Reid last week, 36 per cent of Albertans would definitely or lean toward voting to leave Canada, and most of them are supporters of the UCP (Note: I’m skeptical that support for Alberta separating from Canada is actually this high but I’m sure we will see more polling soon).

Sixty-five percent of UCP voters contacted for the Angus Reid survey said they would definitely or lean towards voting for Alberta to leave Canada. This is a stark contrast to NDP voters, among who 97 percent said they’d vote to stay in Canada.

University of Alberta political scientist professor Jared Wesley’s Common Ground Politics group has been measuring support for separation in Alberta regularly since 2019. Wesley told CBC the group finds 15 to 20 per cent of Albertans are hardline separatists and that, while it could change, their survey is “showing no real momentum at this point.”

Acutely aware of how easily the raucous right-wing of Alberta politics can split, Smith has indicated that she won’t go out of her way to stop the province’s separatist minority because she doesn’t want them to leave her UCP and start a new right-wing party.

UCP constituency president Mitch Sylvestre, MLA Scott Cyr, and Premier Danielle Smith share the stage at a UCP fundraiser in Bonnyville on May 8 (source: Facebook)

Smith shared the stage with influential UCP constituency president Mitch Sylvestre and local MLA Scott Cyr at a party fundraising dinner in Bonnyville earlier this week.

Sylvestre is the President of the UCP association in the Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul riding and the CEO of the Alberta Prosperity Project, which is one of the main groups collecting signatures to trigger a separation referendum. He is also head of the Alberta First Pension Plan group that has spent the past few years holding information sessions across the province, including a recent meeting in Sherwood Park where it was reported that he was criticized “for comparing the current political and social landscape in Alberta to Nazi Germany.”

Sylvestre’s constituency association has sent the largest single group of UCP delegates to the party’s annual general meetings for at least the past two years and, according to Smith, has been the party’s strongest local fundraisers.

Most UCP MLAs have been quiet in response to the threats from the separatists inside their own party, but Red Deer-South UCP MLA Jason Stephan continues to voice his support for their effort.

In an op-ed published on the RDNews website, Stephan shared his feelings about national unity: “If you are being led over a cliff, for the sake of “unity”, should you follow like a lemming? No.” This follows a pamphlet mailed to constituents last month in which Stephan described Canada as a “fake team.”

Five UCP constituency associations, including MLA Eric Bouchard’s Calgary-Lougheed association, are hosting a “Building a Framework for a Sovereign Alberta” fundraising event on June 25 (this UCP association previously hosted “Injection of Truth” events with speakers promoting COVID-19 conspiracy theories).

While Smith is feeling pressure from inside her own party, she is also feeling it from outside voices like conservative movement grandfather Preston Manning and external groups led by people formerly affiliated with the UCP.

The newly renamed Alberta Republican Party, formerly known as the Buffalo Party, has formed a coalition with the Independence Party to promote Alberta’s separation from Canada. The Republicans are being led by former UCP operative Cameron Davies, who was Brian Jean’s campaign manager in the Wildrose Party’s 2015 leadership race and who’s role in the Jeff Callaway’s 2017 leadership campaign led to him being issued $27,000 in fines from Elections Alberta.

The Republican Party’s board of directors now includes former UCP board director Peter Weichler and former Calgary-Lougheed UCP chief financial officer Daniel Warwick.

Is this just because Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives lost the federal election?

I am one-hundred percent confident that there would be very little discussion about Alberta separatism today if Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party had defeated the Liberals in the April 28 federal election.

Are any Alberta Conservatives speaking up for Canada?

NDP MLAs have wrapped themselves in the Maple Leaf flag, Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek and Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi are warning that a referendum on separation could be very damaging, and newly elected Calgary Confederation Liberal MP Corey Hogan is calling on cooler heads to lower the political temperature.

The response from Indigenous leaders has been swift. Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations Grand Chief Greg Desjarlais said in a statement:

For the separatists, we are fully prepared to hold Smith’s government accountable in court. Our rights are affirmed and protected by Section 35 of the Constitution — we will not hesitate to assert them. Our sacred Treaty will not be undone by the thoughtless and careless actions of a loud minority. You cannot undermine our rights or our future.

UCP MLAs have been mostly silent on this issue and the federal Conservatives appear to be still reeling from their loss in the federal election. Alberta Conservative politicians speaking out the loudest have either left or been kicked out of the UCP.

Former premier Jason Kenney, who led the UCP from 2017 to 2022, has not held back in voicing his opposition to Alberta separatism. Speaking to reporters outside the ATCO board meeting this week, Kenney said Smith’s UCP government will be “playing with fire” if it continues to fan the flames of a referendum on separation

Airdrie-Cochrane MLA Peter Guthrie, who resigned from the cabinet in February and was kicked out of the UCP caucus in April, has also spoken out against Smith’s separatist games:

"Albertans now know that Premier Smith intended to use the federal election as a platform to push her own agenda—the threat of a separation vote. Immediately following Carney’s victory, she introduced legislation designed to enable such a vote, coinciding with the launch of a petition by advocates pursuing the same objective.

The issue with this move is a lack of foresight. It risks triggering economic instability. Markets thrive on certainty, and these kinds of political shenanigans send the opposite signal. As a result, Alberta—Canada’s economic engine—could see its economy stall, with investment drying up, unemployment climbing, and businesses delaying projects. This creates an environment in which political stability may further erode, fueling division and potential social unrest.

Alberta must, at the very least, attempt to reshape Confederation in a way that strengthens all Canadians—a Confederation where the West no longer compromises to the whims of the East. After a decade of failed, divisive Liberal policies, we owe it to the next generation to use Alberta's intelligence, wisdom, and the tools available to us to build a stronger province.

Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair, who was kicked out of the UCP Caucus in March and now sits as an Independent, delivered a passionate statement in support of Canada in the Legislature on May 14:

Mr. Speaker, I respect democracy and that Americans voted for President Trump, but the second he mentioned Canada becoming the 51st state, he crossed the line for me. Albertans have been waiting too long for a Conservative in this province to say it, so I will. I’m conservative, and I love being Canadian. I’m conservative, but I respect treaty rights. I’m conservative, but I’ll never join the United States.

Mr. Speaker, a lot of issues that are hurting our province are self-inflicted and separate from Ottawa’s failures. The UCP government must take care of their own sandbox before we continue to blame everything on Ottawa. It should be fair to say as a conservative that I don’t like Justin Trudeau, but I also don’t like Donald Trump. Both things can be true, just like we can be angry with the federal government but still love this country.

Former finance minister Travis Toews, who placed second to Smith in the UCP’s 2022 leadership race, penned an article for The Hub, where he argued “[f]ocusing on separation has real potential to undermine investment in the province. It will also risk diminishing Alberta’s influence on the nation at this critical juncture in Canada’s history.”

Why do some people want Alberta to separate from Canada?

Economic grievances, both real and perceived, about how federal Liberal governments treat the oil and gas industry is one of the most common threads in separatist arguments.

It’s important not to confuse legitimate feelings of alienation and unhappiness with the federal government in Ottawa with support for Alberta leaving Canada. Feeling some level of frustration with politicians in Ottawa might be one of the most Canadian things you can feel — but that doesn’t mean it should be ignored or discounted.

Regional alienation is not uniquely Albertan but there are some unique things about Alberta that many federal politicians don’t understand — the cultural relevance of the oil and gas industry probably being the biggest (our professional hockey team is called the Edmonton Oilers, for starters).

While feelings of alienation can be real, Albertans should be cautious that when it comes to separatism, sometimes, where there’s smoke … there’s often a smoke-making machine.

Opposition to the National Energy Program, the metric system, and official bilingualism were the rallying cries of Alberta separatists in the 1980’s. But even then it was still largely a right-wing movement. Many of the major players in those separatist parties had deep connections to far-right political groups, like Aryan Nations leader Terry Long, who ran as a WCC candidate in Lacombe in 1982.

Today, separatist rallying cries are closely tied to the oil and gas industry, pipeline construction, firearms rights, and the much-maligned equalization system. But you don’t have to dig too far through the social media feeds of some of today’s most vocal separatists to discover many of them enthusiastically embrace conspiracy theories about COVID vaccines, transgender people, 15-minute cities, the World Economic Forum and United Nations, and are avid supporters of American President Donald Trump.

Would leaving Canada make things easier for Albertans?

No. Leaving Canada would not resolve the major grievances held by the most separatists and life would almost certainly become more complicated for Albertans.

Canada would be under no obligation to allow companies to build oil pipelines from an independent Alberta through its territory to ports in British Columbia. An independent Alberta would also have to spend significant amounts of money to build replacement federal services and infrastructure currently paid for by all Canadians through the federal government in Ottawa. And there is no guarantee that leaving Canada would lead to never-ending Conservative governments in Alberta (the NDP were government in this province only six years ago and came very close to winning the last provincial election).

There’s also the question of whether all of Alberta would be carved out of Canada? Surely if Canada is divisible, so is Alberta.

Being part of Canada has benefited Alberta greatly through the sheer number of people from all across the country who have moved here to work and live. It’s a fair assumption that many of those people would return to their home provinces in Canada if Alberta was no longer part of Canada, creating a significant brain drain and economic chaos.

Do separatists want to leave Canada so Alberta can join the United States?

APP lawyer Jeffrey Rath, former APP CEO Dennis Modry, and current CEO Mitch Sylvestre are members of the “Commonwealth of Alberta Delegation to Washington DC” that plans to send a delegation to Washington to gauge the Trump administration on its support of Alberta statehood or Alberta becoming the 51st state or a US territory. Trump has earned the ire of Canadians for his frequent comments about annexing Canada into the US and his ramblings likely cost Poilievre’s Conservatives their federal election win.

Is this just a big distraction from other things happening in Alberta politics?

Smith is a talented communicator and she might have successfully created a distraction big enough to overshadow the long list of serious allegations of corruption and political interference related to government contracts with private surgery companies. She has rebuked calls to establish an independent public inquiry into the growing scandal that now includes a lawsuit involving her former chief of staff and calls from the NDP opposition to fire Minister of Justice Mickey Amery because of his personal relationship with a person at the centre of the allegations.

Smith is also facing serious heat from the pair of former UCP MLAs who now sit as Independents in the opposition benches.

What about the by-elections?

Three provincial by-elections that need to be held before the end of 2025 will be the first electoral test of how much support there actually is for separatist parties in Alberta.

Edmonton-Strathcona: It has been almost five months since former former premier Rachel Notley resigned as the NDP MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona and the UCP appears comfortable waiting the entire six month period required to call the by-election. NDP leader Naheed Nenshi is running for his party in this safe NDP seat and the UCP has nominated political staffer Darby Crouch. The Republican Party has not named a candidate but the party’s supporters have been spotted canvassing the riding.

Edmonton-Ellerslie: Gurtej Singh Brar won the NDP nomination to run in the Edmonton-Ellerslie by-election. The local talk radio host defeated public school board trustee Saadiq Sumar, urban planner Shaminder Singh Parmar, and past city council candidate Sana Kakar. Former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj, who represented the riding from 2008 to 2015, is the UCP candidate, and the Republicans have nominated Fred Munn as their candidate.

Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: The UCP appointed Alberta Grains chairperson and Grain Growers of Canada board member Tara Sawyer as its candidate in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills for the by-election that will be held to replace outgoing UCP MLA Nathan Cooper. Sawyer’s appointment happened without an open nomination race, which is likely an indication the UCP was concerned a pro-separatist candidate could possibly create a messy nomination contest in that rural central Alberta riding.

This should be one of the safest UCP ridings in Alberta but past by-elections in this part of the province have produced some wild results with a separatist being elected in Olds-Didsbury in 1982 and a Liberal winning in Three Hills in 1992.

Most of the Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills riding is part of the Battle River—Crowfoot riding where Conservative MP Damien Kurek has said he will step down to allow Poilievre to run in a by-election after losing his Ottawa-area seat to the Liberals. If the separatists wanted to show their displeasure with Poilievre’s failure to win on April 28, this provincial and federal by-elections in this riding would be the place to try to do it.

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🎙️Listen to the Daveberta Podcast

On the latest episode of the Daveberta Podcast, friend of the pod and Partner & Chief Strategist at Y Station Communications and Research, Chris Henderson, joins us to break down the federal election results and what they mean for the country, Alberta, and Smith’s continued pursuit of a sovereignty agenda.