The stakes are high for Nenshi's NDP in the Lethbridge-West by-election
Two former City Councillors running for NDP nomination
The stakes are high for Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi in the upcoming Lethbridge-West by-election. This will be the new NDP leader’s first electoral test since his landslide victory in June and, because of that, it’s also a race that Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party really want to win.
The by-election to choose who will succeed former three-term NDP MLA Shannon Phillips’ hasn’t been called yet but the date of the vote will need to be set by January 1, 2025. The NDP and UCP have both started their nomination process to select candidates.
Nenshi’s first test as leader
Nenshi announced shortly after he won the NDP leadership race that he would not run in the by-election to replace Phillips, saying that a local candidate from the southern Alberta city was preferable.
Lethbridge-West is one of only two ridings the NDP holds outside of the Calgary and Edmonton areas, so winning the by-election is key to demonstrating Nenshi’s ability to win seats outside of the two big cities. A loss in Lethbridge-West would be a damaging blow.
The NDP have held the riding since 2015 and Phillips increased her margin of victory in 2023, partly because the UCP scrambled to replace their candidate weeks before the election, and also because the local NDP association has a strong organization on the ground.
A by-election win is not guaranteed for the NDP but there is little indication the NDP has lost ground since the last election. On the provincial-level, nearly 73,000 members voted in the NDP’s recent leadership race, fundraising returns show the party raised a healthy $1.2 million in the second quarter of 2024 and the NDP remains competitive in most public opinion polls.
A recent survey from Abacus showed the NDP with 40% support compared to 54% for the UCP, which is not far from where the party’s finished in last year’s election. A poll conducted by Sovereign North Strategies for The Western Standard showed the NDP with 47% to the UCP’s 46%.
Nenshi has been popping up at events across the province since becoming leader but the normally prolific social media user has not been as active on social media. This led political columnist David Climenhaga to ask the question “Where’s Nenshi?”
In a recent interview with CTV’s Michael Higgins, Nenshi said he has been dealing with “less sexy stuff” like organizational work and connecting with the NDP’s 37 MLAs. There’s no doubt Nenshi has been busy but his staff need to make sure some of that work is being seen in photos, videos and reels on social media.
A UCP win would be big
The United Conservative Party has set an August 22 deadline for candidates to enter the party’s nomination race in Lethbridge-West.
The UCP already has a majority of the seats in the Legislature, so winning the riding won’t change the government, but picking it up would be a big win for the UCP.
A win by the UCP would symbolically isolate the NDP in the two big cities and provide Smith with validation for her government’s agenda and her own controversial political positions.
But the UCP has vulnerabilities. The insistence of some of the UCP’s most vocal activists on re-litigating the COVID-19 pandemic and leaving the Canada Pension Plan, instead of focusing on Albertans top issues - cost of living, health care and housing affordability - could hurt the governing party at the polls.
Local UCP association president Davey Wiggers told the Lethbridge Herald last month that the riding will be a “central focus for the UCP” because it is the sole orange riding south of Calgary.
“I know the party and the (constituency association) are going to throw everything we’ve got at this,” Wiggers told the Herald. “Now, that in and of itself by sheer willpower does not guarantee us a win, but whoever the candidate for the NDP will be is going to face a hell of a fight.”
The local UCP constituency association hosted a town hall meeting for UCP members on August 8 that featured Lethbridge-East UCP MLA Nathan Neudorf as a guest speaker. No candidates have yet publicly announced their plans to run for the UCP nomination but there is speculation that the party could be trying to recruit Mayor Blaine Hyggen to enter the race.
Two former City Councillors running for NDP nomination
Two former Lethbridge City Councillors have announced plans to run for the Alberta NDP nomination in the urban southern Alberta riding.
Former city councillor Rob Miyashiro was the first to jump into the race when the nomination process was launched last week.
“This election is about three things. It’s about health care. It’s about repairing the chaos that the UCP has caused. It’s about standing for our CPP, stopping Danielle smith’s plan to gamble with our retirement security. And it’s about building on the groundbreaking work of our longtime MLA Shannon Phillips to be a strong voice for Lethbridge,” Miyashiro said at a press conference.
Phillips was at Miyashiro’s side at his launch event, leaving no doubt who the former NDP MLA would like to be her successor.
“I have full faith in Rob’s work ethic, his values and his roots in our community. I know the dedication, the hard work and the good humour that it takes to win a seat in southern Alberta and I know Rob has all of that along with the team he has built,” Phillips said in her endorsement.
Miyashiro served on City Council from 2013 to 2021 and is the Executive Director of the Lethbridge Senior Citizens Organization. He ran for the NDP in the neighbouring Lethbridge-East riding in last year’s provincial election. The NDP had high hopes of reclaiming that seat from the UCP, but Miyashiro landed 637 votes short of unseating cabinet minister Nathan Neudorf.
He was also the Alberta Liberal Party candidate in Lethbridge-East in the 2012 provincial election (that riding was represented by Liberal MLAs from 1993 to 2011).
On the same day Miyashiro launched his campaign, former councillor Bridget Mearns announced her bid for the NDP nomination through a statement on social media.
“I am thrilled to announce that I am officially entering the race to win the NDP nomination for Lethbridge West,” Mearns wrote. “I am the only candidate that can beat the UCP in the by-election and keep a strong voice in Lethbridge on the issues that matter, like health care, your CPP, and school class sizes.”
Mearns served on City Council from 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017 before placing a very close second in the race for mayor in 2021. She is currently the Executive Director of BILD Lethbridge, an association representing construction and development companies in the region.
She is also the daughter of former Lethbridge-East MLA Bridget Pastoor, who was elected as a Liberal in 2004 and 2008 and crossed the floor to run as a Progressive Conservative in 2012.
NDP members will vote to select their candidate at a meeting on September 7.
Not your usual southern Alberta riding
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