The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics

Danielle Smith's party is now neck-and-neck with Rachel Notley's NDP in 2023

I’m Dave Cournoyer and this is the Daveberta Substack.

We are five days into Alberta’s election campaign and I have a lot to share. In this Substack you will find today’s column, as well as some thoughts about the past week and the UCP War Room’s new nightly broadcast.

Thank you to everyone who has read and subscribed to this Substack. If you like what you read, please feel free to share it with a friend. And if you feel it’s useful, please consider signing up for paid subscription to support my writing.

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Thank you,

Dave

PS. I’m continuing to update the list of candidates running in this election.

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tl;dr

If you don’t have time to read today’s column right away, here are some of my main points:

• The United Conservative Party was a political juggernaut in 2019 but the party is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in 2023.

• Danielle Smith is not running on the UCP’s record as government and is trying to reinvent the UCP, as well as her own record, in this campaign. You won’t hear Smith talk about open-pit coal mining and selling provincial parks, two big issues that upset a lot of Albertans after the UCP was elected.

• Smith’s comments about paying out of pocket for doctor’s visits continues to dog her, as do her connections to groups like Take Back Alberta.

• Rachel Notley’s NDP are also not running on their record as government but they have the advantage of 4 years in opposition to put some distance between then and now.

• Notley is appealing to moderate voters, and specifically former UCP voters in Calgary who might be considering voting NDP. She has committed to not raise income taxes or fees, and that she plans to run a balanced budget. It’s not your grandfather’s NDP.

Today’s column

The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics

UCP leader Danielle Smith at a campaign announcement on May 4, 2023 (source: UCP livestream/Facebook)

It’s amazing how much can change in four years.

The United Conservative Party won big in Alberta’s 2019 election, taking 63 seats in the Alberta Legislature and earning 54.8 per cent of the province-wide vote. The party racked up huge margins of victory in rural ridings and swept Calgary.

It was a juggernaut.