The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics
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The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics
Danielle Smith's party is now neck-and-neck with Rachel Notley's NDP in 2023
I’m Dave Cournoyer and this is the Daveberta Substack.
We are five days into Alberta’s election campaign and I have a lot to share. In this Substack you will find today’s column, as well as some thoughts about the past week and the UCP War Room’s new nightly broadcast.
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Thank you,
Dave
PS. I’m continuing to update the list of candidates running in this election.
tl;dr
If you don’t have time to read today’s column right away, here are some of my main points:
The United Conservative Party was a political juggernaut in 2019 but the party is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in 2023.
Danielle Smith is not running on the UCP’s record as government and is trying to reinvent the UCP, as well as her own record, in this campaign. You won’t hear Smith talk about open-pit coal mining and selling provincial parks, two big issues that upset a lot of Albertans after the UCP was elected.
Smith’s comments about paying out of pocket for doctor’s visits continues to dog her, as do her connections to groups like Take Back Alberta.
Rachel Notley’s NDP are also not running on their record as government but they have the advantage of 4 years in opposition to put some distance between then and now.
Notley is appealing to moderate voters, and specifically former UCP voters in Calgary who might be considering voting NDP. She has committed to not raise income taxes or fees, and that she plans to run a balanced budget. It’s not your grandfather’s NDP.
Today’s column
The UCP was a political juggernaut in 2019 but four years changed a lot in Alberta politics
It’s amazing how much can change in four years.
The United Conservative Party won big in Alberta’s 2019 election, taking 63 seats in the Alberta Legislature and earning 54.8 per cent of the province-wide vote. The party racked up huge margins of victory in rural ridings and swept Calgary.
It was a juggernaut.
It also wasn’t clear on that election night if the Alberta NDP would be able to recover from their defeat. It felt unlikely.
That the UCP is now neck-and-neck with the NDP in most polls with only 24 days left until the next election says a lot about the UCP’s four years as government and the NDP’s time in opposition.
It’s a big reason why the UCP isn’t really running on its record as government in this election.
We are probably not going to hear UCP leader Danielle Smith talk much about selling or closing provincial parks, open-pit coal mining in the Rocky Mountains, curriculum redesign, threatening to layoff nurses and cut doctors pay, or attacking Netflix over a kids movie. In fact, the two words Smith is most unlikely to say over the next 24 days might be “Jason Kenney.”
Smith is running away from the UCP’s record and hoping Albertans forget all the things they didn’t like when Kenney was premier. That’s not totally unheard of in Alberta politics, but Smith is also trying to reinvent herself at the same time.
The UCP is spending a lot of energy denying claims by the NDP that Smith wants Albertans to pay out of pocket to see a doctor. The problem for the UCP is that the NDP have a video recording of Smith saying exactly that and they are using Smith’s own voice in their attack ads.
Smith’s connections to controversial political activists, like Pastor Artur Pawlowski and Take Back Alberta leader David Parker, are also making a lot of moderate conservatives uncomfortable.
A screenshot of a communication from TBA Edmonton organizer Benita Pederson to supporters was circulated last week asking them to “please refrain from wearing your TBA T-shirts to UCP events.”
“We also recommend that you don’t bring up TBA when interacting with UCP supporters and potential UCP supporters,” Pederson added, recognizing that “not everybody is friendly to TBA.”
Globe & Mail reporter Carrie Tait published an in-depth article about Take Back Alberta, which was born out of the Coutts blockade and grievances with COVID-19 restrictions. The group is now a political force to be reckoned with inside Smith’s UCP.
The NDP aren’t really running on their record as government either. But the big difference is that NDP leader Rachel Notley has had four years in the opposition benches to put a bit of distance between herself and some of the more unpopular efforts her party pursued while in government from 2015 to 2019.
Notley has redefined her party since its defeat in 2019, positioning the Alberta NDP as a more moderate and stable alternative to the chaos offered by the UCP.
The NDP has also focused on building the party beyond its traditional base in Edmonton and purposely recruiting a slate of candidates in Calgary that they hope moderate conservatives would be comfortable supporting on Election Day.
But even with all that effort, the NDP are still tied in the polls with the UCP.
In an effort to break that logjam in her favour, Notley made an appeal to conservative voters who might be considering voting NDP for the first time.
“If I am your Premier, I will not raise your income taxes. I will not increase fees. And I will not increase your personal costs because I understand the most important budget is the family budget,” Notley said.
“I will take all the recommendations from former ATB Chief Economist Todd Hirsch and I will run a balanced budget,” she said. “I will take steps to get us off the fiscal roller coaster and I will not run deficits.”
It’s not your grandfather’s NDP.
Notley’s message has resonated with a few well-known conservative luminaries.
Former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, who served as the Progressive Conservative MLA for Edmonton-Castle Downs from 2001 to 2015, has been door-knocking with Morinville-St. Albert NDP candidate Karen Shaw and shared a video endorsement of Calgary-West NDP candidate Joan Chand’oiseau.
Calgary-Elbow NDP candidate Samir Kayande posted a photo of former Calgary-Buffalo PC MLA Ron Ghitter and former Conservative MP Lee Richardson at one of his recent campaign fundraisers.
But, at least in the case of Lukaszuk and Ghitter, neither were ever enthusiastic supporters of the UCP, so we will watch to see if they are joined by others.
Four years ago, it would have been hard to believe that the UCP would be anything but an unstoppable political juggernaut again in 2023. But, as we’ve seen, it’s amazing how much can change in four years.
The Brucecast: UCP launches nightly social media broadcast
The UCP War Room has launched an official nightly broadcast hosted by former Wildrose MLA and TV broadcaster Bruce McAllister. McAllister has most recently been working as the director of the Premier’s Office in the McDougall Centre in Calgary.
The nightly videos feature McAllister repeating the main UCP talking points of the day and interviewing guests like leader Danielle Smith, candidates Brian Jean, Rebecca Schulz and Jeremy Nixon, and UCP strategists Erika Barootes and Vitor Marciano.
McAllister described the purpose of the broadcast in it’s first episode:
“One of the things that you hear in every election campaign, frankly, whether it is the media’s reporting, whether it’s the opposition parties reporting, is you hear falsehoods and you hear stories that are stretched and often not true. And the intent of that, and again I spent 20 years in some of the biggest news rooms in the country, so pretty familiar with this, so the intent from opposition parties is to try to scare you into believing something that isn’t true to win your vote. With the UCP the belief is, we’ll tell you exactly what the opposition is doing and we’ll be honest about it and that’ll be enough.”
It’s cynical, but it’s politics.
Campaign promises
The parties are mostly sticking to their lanes in the first week of the election campaign.
The UCP started the week offering a tax cut for the first $60,000 earned by Albertans, which will have some broad appeal, and also announced a tax credit and signing bonus to recruit professionals to Alberta.
The NDP repeated their plans to increase access to family doctors, establish 40 new Family Health Clinics and hire an additional 4,000 allied health professionals. The NDP also released its Competitiveness, Jobs and Investment Strategy that includes an Alberta's Future Tax Credit, Alberta Petrochemical Incentive Program, and Fast Pass.
Banff-Kananaskis NDP candidate Sarah Elmeligi and Calgary-Buffalo candidate Joe Ceci released a commitment to end the housing crisis in Bow Valley communities west of Calgary. Banff-Kananaskis is a competitive riding in this election.
Alberta Liberal Party leader John Roggeveen released his party’s jobs and economy platform.
A few more things
The fine folks at POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook announced they will be hosting Alberta Election trivia nights in Calgary on May 23 and Edmonton on May 24. More details to come!
I was on CBC Edmonton earlier this week to talk about the first few days of the election campaign.
Country music star Corb Lund was on the Ryan Jespersen Show this week to talk about why he believes open-pit coal mining in the Rocky Mountains is still an election issue.
Public Interest Alberta released its priorities for public education. “Our educational system has been under attack from successive governments who have starved the system of vital funding, compromising the quality of public education in Alberta” said PIA executive director Bradley Lafortune. “All kids in Alberta have a right to a world-class education. Investing in public education is an investment in an Alberta for all.”
The Book Publishers Association of Alberta is asking Albertans and election candidates to submit their Alberta stories. The stories will then be highlighted on the BPAA website.
Alberta Municipalities is continuing its Think Alberta, Vote Local campaign and will be holding online media events on May 9 to bring attention to Alberta’s $30-billion municipal infrastructure gap.
I’m voting for…
I am excited to announce I’ve printed off a limited run of special edition Daveberta lawn signs. I’ll have more details to share about this soon.