Weird fever dream? Sleepwalking? What is even happening in Alberta right now?
Albertans need to get out and vote on October 19, 2026
Even after writing about Alberta politics for more than 20 years it’s still sometimes hard to fully understand and explain what is happening in our province.
Albertans are now 87 days away from having to vote on Premier Danielle Smith’s 10 referendum questions, including a convoluted question about holding a future binding referendum on Alberta separating from Canada. It feels like we’re having some kind of weird fever dream and we’re definitely sleepwalking into it.
Despite putting the future of Alberta’s place in Canada on the ballot in less than three months, I am shocked at how many people have told me Smith is barely or not even mentioning the separation referendum in many of the public speeches she is making during her summer travels across the province.
It doesn’t even really feel like it’s a priority for Smith’s United Conservative Party government, which Postmedia revealed paid more than $300,000 to a Toronto-based advertising firm run by a former Conservative Party ad-man and affiliated with an influential lobbyist firm.
Smith’s government appears to have done little to promote the expensive AlbertaReferendum2026.ca website, which Postmedia reports has only generated around 40,000 visits since April 2026 (Daveberta will have more traffic than that in a slow month).
Three Alberta-based PR company owners I spoke with this week were puzzled by the cost, saying that a website like that probably shouldn’t have cost more than $50,000 at most.
The government’s videos attached to the website had attracted an embarrsingly low 7,424 views and 795 views on YouTube as of July 24, 2026, and even Smith’s address to the province about the separation referendum that was posted on May 21, 2026 was sitting at a lonely 9,300 views. But perhaps the best example of how little importance Smith’s government has placed on their $300,000 website is that the latest update in the “latest updates” section is a link to an article published on May 25, 2026.
Smith speaks highly of the Memorandum of Understanding she signed with Prime Miniser Mark Carney on pipelines and electrification, but that’s a talking point that can be used by either side in this debate — either Canada is working as it should or Canada is broken because Alberta is only getting what it wants because it’s threatening to separate. Smith knows UCP supporters are deeply divided on separation, so she is intentionally sending mixed messages on this.
Even UCP cabinet ministers are largely mum on separation. The most referendum news generated by any cabinet minister has been from transportation minister Devin Dreeshen, who continues to refuse to answer reporters questions about how he’ll vote on October 19.
Albertans are barrelling towards the separation referendum that Danielle Smith forced upon us and she and her government don’t appear to be interested in talking about it.
Separatist groups have entrenched themselves inside Smith’s UCP and are having a heyday. Despite support for Alberta separatism sitting around 20 per cent to 25 per cent, depending on which poll you look at, a cottage industry of right-wing third party advertisers and social media influencers are churning out content and soliciting for donations at breakneck speed.
A live-streamed telethon featuring a rogues gallery of separatist organizers and online influencers was held last weekend and organizers claimed the effort raised more than $135,000 in donations. Notable guests featured on the 12-hour livestream included the Western Standard’s Cory Morgan, former People’s Party candidate Jason Lavigne, vlogger Lawrence Magee (known to his followers as “AlbertaProudDad”), Rebel Media’s Sheila Gunn Reid and Tamara Lich, and Let Alberta Decide spokespeople Keith Wilson and Tanya Clemens.
Also featured on the separatist telethon were Calgary-Lougheed UCP constituency association president Darrel Komack, and podcasters Madison Holmes and MayCee Holmes, the recipients of the UCP’s Rising Star Award at the party’s 2025 annual general meeting.
The telethon also featured a man wearing an Alberta-flag themed balaclava and shirt calling himself “Mister Alberta.”
As easy as this might be to mock, becuase some of it is pretty cheesy and amateur looking, it’s a sign that these groups are organized and working together toward October 19. They are actually doing something.
While this telethon likely spoke to an audience that is already in its own information silo, especially when delving into the more conspiracy-theory heavy rhetoric that defines a loud segment of Alberta’s separatist influencers, there are separatists who are trying to break out of that echo chamber.
The talking points used by Let Alberta Decide spokespeople Wilson and Clemens sound like they are aimed more intentionally at undecided or soft pro-Canadian voters who might just want to send a message to Ottawa. They are trying their best to sound reasonable and not dip into the culture war politics that already energizes separatist supporters.
Wilson and Clemens frame the referendum question as a chance to give Albertans a choice to decide. They claim that the Canada we once knew doesn’t exist anymore and the country isn’t working, while sugarcoating Alberta’s role in Canada and its possibilities as an independent republic.
Let Alberta Decide also has the money to back up their messaging. According to Elections Alberta financial disclosures, the separatist group has raised $359,888.95 in donations as of June 23, 2026. This puts them far ahead of any other registered third-party advertiser in this referendum campaign.
What I expect to hear more of in the next few months is the argument that not voting in favour of having a future binding referendum on separation will give up Alberta’s leverage against the federal government. If you believe the rhetoric that Alberta has been ignored and maltreated by Ottawa for decades then it might be easy to be convinced that the threat of separatism is powerful leverage over the rest of Canada, even if you don’t intend to vote for separation in a future binding referendum.
But it’s hard to see a path back to politics as normal in Alberta, if there ever was such a thing. The lines have been drawn and regardless of the voting results, Smith’s decision to give the separatists their referendum has legitimatized them as a force in Alberta politics, and more importantly, inside the governing UCP.
This is an issue that will not be put to bed on October 20.
A roster of pro-Canada groups have formed over the last few months, but none feel as robust as the separatist groups.
Naheed Nenshi’s NDP appear to be doing ground work and doorknocking in their For Alberta, For Canada campaign and Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian campaign is distributing lawn signs and criss-crossing the province in his Unity Bus.
Campaign strategist Stephen Carter’s Alberta’s Voice group is spinning out spoof websites and fundraising to buy lawn signs, encouraging Albertans to vote to stay in Canada and no to the nine — probably the catchiest slogan of the campaign so far.
Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan might be one of the most aggressive pro-Canada campaigners in this referendum. McGowan showed up with a crew of volunteers at Premier Smith’s Calgary Stampede pancake breakfast to hand out pamphlets and confront provincial politicians about their position on Alberta separatism:
“Albertans deserve the facts, not spin, when they’re making a decision this important. The vast majority of Albertans oppose separatism. They understand it would be economically disastrous. They also understand this debate is dividing us and distracting us from the issues that actually matter – the affordability crisis, and the threats to our economy and democracy coming from the Trump administration. We’re going to keep making sure Albertans have the facts, and we’re inviting them to join us.”
Parkland MP Dane Lloyd has been tasked by Pierre Poilievre to be the federal Conservative Party’s pointman on Alberta separatism, but it is unclear how much organizational muscle Alberta’s dominant federal party will put into the referendum campaign. They share a voter base with the UCP that is equally as split on the separation question.
A host of Conservative-affiliated campaigns like Vote to Stay and Lead not Leave have launched and are publishing thoughtful commentary on their Substacks and in the pages of the daily newspapers but it’s not entirely clear what most of the pro-Canada groups campaigning towards this referendum are doing to ensure that voters actually get out on October 19.
Former NDP cabinet minister Shannon Phillips recently wrote that low turnout is the biggest threat facing Canadians who want Alberta to remain in Canada:
84% of Albertans say they are likely to vote and 66% say they definitely will, but the distribution of that intensity runs against Remain. Seniors are at 90% likely turnout while Albertans under 35 sit at 46%. White Albertans are at 75% and rural Alberta at 71%, while immigrants are at 47% and non-white Albertans at 48%, nearly 30 points behind, and both groups lean more Remain than average. Union members at 62% and Edmonton at 63% both trail the provincial figure. The committed Separatist side turns out at 84% among its sure voters against 69% for sure Remain voters.
It is a strange issue. The real split on Alberta separatism is on the political right, among UCP and Conservative voters, but they only make up around 50 per cent to 60 per cent of Albertans and they skew towards rural or small city Alberta.
There will need to be a strong turnout of Alberta NDP and federal Liberal voters in Calgary and Edmonton for the referendum to be defeated. This is why efforts by progressive groups and the NDP will matter in this referendum campaign and why voter turnout will matter. As standalone referendum in which Albertans will be handed 10 separate paper ballots to vote on, it’s unclear what the turnout will be.
Elections Alberta has opened applications for special ballots and, as University of Alberta Professor Jared Wesley warns, getting people to the polls and getting them to stay in line long enough to vote will be critical:
Turnout will matter in Alberta’s October referendums. In terms of campaigning, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts may matter more than persuasion, given that the vast majority of Albertans have made up their minds (at least on the separation question).
Unlike previous elections, however, GOTV efforts this summer and fall will confront a new challenge. Beyond getting people to the polls, organizers will need to ensure people stick around long enough to cast a ballot.
As we saw in last year’s municipal elections, changes made by the provincial government to how elections are administered and votes are counted led to long and slow lines at polling stations and very late night results as the ballots are counted.
Legislative Assemby Speaker and Calgary-Hays UCP MLA Ric McIver is one of the few conservative politicians I’ve noticed who is encouraging Albertans to apply for a mail in ballot to avoid any long lines on October 19. Along with a link to the Elections Alberta website, McIver posted his plea on LinkedIn:
That is where I will get my mail in ballot to vote to keep Alberta in Canada.
You should too. All eligible voters can use the mail in ballot so do it now.
Remember, the vast majority of Alberta people want to remain in Canada.
So, the only way to lose is to not vote.
Do not do that.
We can only hope that there are long lines and a huge turnout but I’m worried there won’t be.
It continues to be troubling how nonchalant many non-political Albertans I’ve spoken with are about the approaching separation referendum. They are mostly bewildered that the separtation referendum is even happening and they are confused about why the province is asking Albertans to vote on the other nine questions. Most of these folks are pro-Canada and would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada — if they vote on October 19 — but they are not particularly engaged in the issue.
Elections are decided by those who show up. Albertans who want our province to remain part of Canada need to show up to vote on October 19 or it won’t just be a weird fever dream we wake up from on October 20. It could be a weird new reality.
Two UCP MLAs face nomination challenges
It appears that at least two UCP MLAs will face challenges for their nominations ahead of the next provincial election:
Seun Ogunsola is challenging UCP MLA Rajan Sawhney in Calgary-North West.
Sawhney was elected in this riding in 2023 after switching from Calgary-North East, where she was elected in 2019. She currently serves as Minister of Indigenous Relations.
Ogunsola a senior partner with Crest Business Advisory and a former regional vice president with RBC Wealth Management. He resigned from the Alberta Law Foundation board after the government introduced legislation that allowed the Minister of Justice to interfere in the foundation’s granting process.
Former Vegreville town councillor Tina Warawa is challenging UCP MLA Jackie Armstrong Homeniuk in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
Armstrong Homeniuk has served as the UCP MLA for this riding east of Edmonton since 2019.
Warawa is a former mayor and councillor of the Village of Andrew and served on Vegreville town council from 2017 to 2025. She is the former president of the Vegreville Minor Hockey Association.
Warawa works as a constituency assistant for Lakeland Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs and previous worked in a similar role for Progressive Conservative MLA Jacquie Fenske from 2012 to 2015.
More nomination news:
Trisha Estabrooks launched her campaign for the Alberta NDP nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. Supporters at the campaign launch included NDP MP Heather McPherson, former MP Linda Duncan, and former MLA Ray Martin.
Adam Doyle is the fifth candidate to enter the UCP nomination contest in Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright. The other candidates in the race are Dale Aalbers, Paul Conlon, Stacy Miskiw, and Jackie Tomayer.
Upcoming nomination dates include:
July 24: Deadline for candidates to enter the UCP nomination contests in Cypress-Medicine Hat, Calgary-North West, and Sherwood Park.
July 25: Lawyer Michelle Baer is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Red Deer-South.
July 30: School trustee Angela Sommers is expected to be nominated as the NDP candidate in Red Deer-North.
More Alberta politics
“That's not going to happen,” was Premier Smith’s response to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s suggestion that Canada could cut off energy to the United States in retaliation against American President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs targetting Canadian goods.
At the PNWER conference in Edmonton, US Ambassador Pete Hoekstra toasted his country’s trade relationship with Canada just hours before Trump announced a 50 per cent increase to the tariffs on Canadian exports America.
Minister of Municipal Affairs Dan Williams is on a province-wide tour of rural and small town municipalities.
Forward Canada’s Omar Mouallem sat down with Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi for a 30 minute interview.
The Alberta NDP is launching an AI data centre consultation:
“While the government and its so-called ‘concierge service’ take marching orders from billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg, the Alberta NDP is focused on engaging directly with Albertans and fighting for their priorities. We want to hear directly from Albertans about where they stand on AI data centres and what safeguards they expect to see in place.”
Although I'm concerned about the separation referendum, I'm afraid it has led to little discussion of the other 9 noxious questions. Those questions about constitutional matters and immigrants rights could well pass if people pay little attention to them, and even might not vote on them if they become fed up with the predicted snail's pace of voting. I sure hope thoughtful people will be sure to vote no to all those hare-brained questions (apologies to hares).
So this is me taking a wild shot in the dark but I think one of the major reasons Smith hasn’t done or said anything about the referendum at this point is because she knows it’s politically toxic to her so at this point she’s positioned herself similarly to David Cameron on Brexit: Let it play out and decide what to do from there
Although it would be interesting if we saw history repeat itself and Smith decided to resign regardless of the outcome, I don’t think she will but neither am I ruling out the possibility either