What I learned tracking election candidate nominations in Alberta
What I learned tracking election candidate nominations in Alberta
“Hey, you’re the candidate nominations guy!”
“Hey, you’re the candidate nominations guy!”
It’s not what people usually call me when I meet them for the first time, but it’s what a longtime daveberta.ca reader said when I met them for the first time a few weeks ago.
But I guess it’s true.
I started tracking the names of people running for nominations to become party candidates in elections 16 years ago and have since done it for every provincial and federal election in Alberta and municipal election in Edmonton. By my count that’s 15 elections.
I started writing about and building the lists of nomination candidates because I find it interesting and no one else was doing it. I treat it as a bit of a public service, which is why I maintain the list and publish it for free over at daveberta.ca.
The current round of provincial nomination tracking began on March 19, 2021, when Julia Hayter announced she was seeking the NDP nomination in Calgary-Edgemont. Since then, I’ve written close to 70 articles on daveberta.ca about candidate nominations ahead of the 2023 Alberta election.
Now, with Alberta’s election only 35 days away, I have a few thoughts that I’m happy to share about this round of candidate nominations.
1. Lots of competitive nominations
One of the biggest differences between this round of candidate nominations and the round before the 2019 election is the number of contested nominations for both the Alberta NDP and United Conservative Party. Four years ago, the NDP only held a handful of contested nomination votes while the UCP had many. But this round drew a lot more interest for the NDP.
The NDP held contested nomination votes to choose 28 of the 83 candidates they currently have nominated (the NDP still have not announced candidates in Cardston-Siksika, Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, Grande Prairie-Wapiti, and Taber-Warner).
Twenty-seven of the UCP’s 87 candidates were chosen through a contested nomination vote (it was 28 until this past weekend when Zulkifl Mujahid was disqualified and Tany Yao was appointed in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo).
Two incumbent MLAs lost their nominations: NDP MLA Chris Nielsen in Edmonton-Decore and David Hanson in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul (the already mentioned Tany Yao was defeated in 2022 but was appointed last week).
2. Women on the ballot
This is the second election in Alberta’s history where the two main political parties are led by women - UCP leader Danielle Smith and Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley.
Significantly more women have been nominated to run for the NDP than the UCP in this election. Forty-one of the 83 candidates currently nominated by the NDP are women. This is close to the same number of women the NDP nominated in the 2019 election.
The UCP have nominated 18 women in Alberta’s 87 ridings, which is a drop from 27 women candidates on the UCP slate in 2019. The UCP has nominated only one woman in Edmonton: Melissa Crane in Edmonton-Glenora.
3. NDP recruitment outside the big cities
Unlike previous elections, when the NDP would frequently parachute bright-eyed university students or dedicated party activists into rural ridings outside the big cities, the NDP put in a real effort this year in recruiting local candidates who actually live in ridings.
The NDP’s recruitment push generated contested nomination races in some unexpected places. The NDP held nomination votes in ridings including Airdrie-Cochrane, Banff-Kananaskis, Camrose, Central Peace-Notley, Cypress-Medicine Hat, Morinville-St. Albert, and West Yellowhead.
It might not pay off for the NDP with wins in some of those ridings in this election, but it is certainly a way to build that party outside its traditional areas of support for future elections.
4. Take Back Alberta influence on UCP nominations
There are always a certain number of private interest groups and internal party factions that play a role in candidate nomination races, especially in Alberta’s conservative parties. But the outsized role of the Take Back Alberta political action committee in some UCP nomination contests in this round is undeniable.
With roots in the Coutts border blockade and protests against COVID-19 public health measures, TBA is well-organized and has actively backed candidates in UCP nominations races.
As a result, there are an increased number of UCP candidates in this election whose politics are defined by opposition to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and, as a result, the UCP much different kind of conservative party than Albertans are used to.
5. Plenty of familiar names
There are a few familiar names on the ballot this year, including UCP leader Danielle Smith, who led the Wildrose Party from 2009 to 2014, and NDP leader Rachel Notley, who is the first former premier in Alberta’s history to attempt a return to office after their party was defeated in a past election.
Four former MLAs are running to get back into the Legislature.
Former UCP MLA Scott Cyr is running for the UCP in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul and former Liberal MLA Raj Sherman is running for the UCP in Edmonton-Whitemud. Sherman was leader of the Alberta Liberal Party from 2011 to 2014.
Former NDP MLAs working hard to make an electoral comeback are Danielle Larivee in Lesser Slave Lake and Oneil Carlier in Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland.
Second time NDP candidates who first ran in 2019 include Amanda Chapman in Calgary-Beddington, Julia Hayter in Calgary-Edgemont, Parmeet Singh Boparai in Calgary-Falconridge, Rebecca Bounsall in Calgary-Fish Creek, and Janet Eremenko in Calgary-Currie (she ran in Calgary-Elbow in 2019).
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin NDP candidate Katherine Swampy previously ran in Drayton Valley-Devon in 2015 and Brooks-Medicine Hat NDP candidate Gwendoline Dirk is running for a second time after last year’s by-election. And Kevin McLean is running for the NDP in Grande Prairie and previously ran for the provincial Liberals in 2012, 2015 and 2019.
Ali Haymour is running for the UCP in Edmonton-North West. He previously ran for the NDP in 2008 and 2012 and for the Alberta Party in 2019.
Alberta Party leader Barry Morishita is running in Brooks-Medicine Hat, where he ran in last year’s by-election. He also ran as a Liberal candidate in Strathmore-Brooks in 2001. Alberta Party candidate Myles Chykerda is also running for a second time in Lacombe-Ponoka.
Dan Bildhauer is running for the Liberals in Edmonton-West Henday, an area where he ran for the party in 2015. And Donna Wilson is running for the Liberals in Edmonton-Whitemud, where she ran in a 2014 by-election. She also ran in Edmonton-Riverview in 2015.
But the reigning champion of running in elections is Naomi Rankin, who is running as the Communist Party of Alberta candidate in Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood. Rankin has served as leader of the Communist Party since 1992 and has run in every provincial and federal election in Alberta since 1982. Her best result in a provincial election was in 1982, when she earned 0.7 per cent of the vote in Edmonton-Highlands.
6. There could be a lot of two candidate races in 2023
Without a third political party organizing a full slate of candidates, there could be a lot of ridings with only UCP and NDP candidates on the ballot.
In the last election, the UCP, NDP and Alberta Party nominated full-slates of 87 candidates but the Alberta Party announced earlier this month that it would not try to nominate a full-slate in this election.
As far as I am aware, the last time there was a provincial election race with only two candidates on the ballot was in 1997 when Progressive Conservative Gary Friedel and Liberal Bruce MacKeen ran in Peace River. Fridel was re-elected with 61 per cent of the vote. Before that, you have to go back to 1986 to find another two candidate race (there were six in that election!).
I am planning to share more thoughts about the people running in the election when the deadline for candidates to get on the ballot passes ten days after the election is called. Let me know if there is anything that you think is notable about this round of nominations or the candidates who have stepped forward.
Thank you!
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Thank you!
Dave
Thank you, Dave! The greatest additional contribution you could provide - on top of the yeoman service of generating this candidate list and the colour commentary on those nomination races - would be to tally how many of them are members of Take Back Alberta or endorsed by them. Of course, if the remaining half of the party executive seats are captured by TBA at the next opportunity, the entire party will be beholden to them or under their sway. They could oust Smith as surely as they ousted Kenny, and not necessarily by waiting four years to do it.