Who will be the big election winners in Calgary and Edmonton?

Jagmeet Singh, Pierre Poilievre, and maybe Mark Carney make final stops in Alberta

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The final pitch: Who will be the big election winners in Calgary and Edmonton?

Canada’s federal election is four days away and most polls are pointing to a big national victory for Mark Carney’s Liberal Party. While the national polls show the gap between Carney’s party and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives slightly tightening, the Liberal lead in Ontario and Atlantic Canada looks insurmountable unless something drastic happens before April 28.

While most of Alberta’s federal ridings will be solidly Conservative blue on election night, the province’s two biggest cities could produce some interesting results. I haven’t seen any actual riding-level polls, which are both expensive and difficult to conduct, but most national polls show the Liberals with around 30 percent support in Alberta. This would represent the largest percentage of votes for the federal Liberals in Alberta since 1968.

Most polling aggregator sites, like 338Canada.com, have used the plethora of polling to project some fairly competitive races in Calgary and Edmonton.

As of this morning, Philippe Fournier’s popular website shows Calgary McKnight, Edmonton Centre, and Edmonton Southeast as Liberal leaning. The Liberals have seen some electoral success in those areas in the past 10 years. The website marks Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation, Calgary Skyview, Edmonton Gateway, Edmonton Manning, Edmonton Northwest, Edmonton Riverbend, and Edmonton West as toss up races between the Conservatives and Liberals.

The aggregator puts Heather McPherson’s Edmonton Strathcona riding as “likely NDP” and Blake Desjarlais’ Edmonton Griesbach riding as an NDP-Conservative toss up.

The riding-level information shared on these kinds of aggregator sites should not be confused with actual riding-level polls - they are modelled projections made at a riding-level using national and regional level polls. They come with the same caveat as any poll — they show snapshots and trends, but not necessarily exactly what will happen in the future. Things can change and events can happen, but the window for people to change their minds in this federal election is quickly closing.

The optimistic projections for the Liberals in Calgary and Edmonton took me by surprise in this federal election. The Liberal Party is usually just not this competitive in Alberta and, until Carney turned around his party’s fortunes, they were bracing for a total wipeout in the province. The party’s organization in Alberta fell into deep disrepair in the final years of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership and the party was left scrambling to nominate candidates and organize campaigns when Carney called the election at the end of March.

The Liberals are trying to catch up to the red wave that has turned around the party’s fortunes nationally and locally in Alberta’s two big cities. But that means the high level of support the Liberals are seeing in the polls isn’t necessarily apparent in the normal ways political watchers might gauge voter support on the ground.

There isn’t a tidal wave of red lawns signs in most ridings in the toss up category, likely because most Liberal campaigns haven’t had the time to properly canvass and identify their supporters.

Aside from higher profile candidates like Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi, incumbent MP George Chahal, and political commentator Corey Hogan, the last minute nomination of candidates means that even in ridings the Liberals are projected to be competitive in, voters might not have a clue who their local candidate is until they mark a check beside their name on the ballot (this isn’t unique to this election, but it’s probably more likely).

Those factors could give the Conservatives an edge in close races with the Liberals because they might have stronger organizations and campaign infrastructure on the ground in some of these urban ridings. It might also be a factor in Edmonton Centre, where NDP candidate Trisha Estabrooks' campaign appears to be quite well-organized.

After twenty years writing about Alberta politics, I’m always very cautious not to write off the Conservatives in elections in this province. Even when they look weak in Alberta they are still strong. But it’s just a fact that an increasing number of voters in Calgary and Edmonton have become comfortable voting for non-Conservative parties, especially in provincial elections.

Ten years ago the federal Liberals broke a 47-year drought in Calgary by electing two MPs in that city, along with two in Edmonton. After being shut out of the province in 2019, the Liberals elected one MP from each city in the 2021 election. The NDP have had a lock on Edmonton Strathcona since 2008 and doubled the size of their Alberta caucus by winning Edmonton Griesbach in 2021.

At the provincial level, the Alberta NDP have dominated Edmonton since 2015, and less than two years ago the Alberta NDP won more votes and elected more MLAs in Calgary than Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.

Smith has played a big role in this federal election. Her attempts to charm Donald Trump’s America and threats to create a national unity crisis if the Liberals are re-elected appear to have been less than helpful to Poilievre’s Conservatives. That is almost certainly why Smith has spent the final week of the election campaign more than 7,000 kilometres away in Japan and South Korea.

Former UCP cabinet minister Peter Guthrie, who resigned from cabinet in February and was kicked out of the UCP Caucus, penned a scathing public letter yesterday in which he accused the Premier of “using the federal election as an opportunity to raise her own national profile - possibly at the expense of the CPC and Pierre Poilievre's efforts to become Canada's next Prime Minister.”

As one of Canada’s most effective Conservative politicians, Smith has solidified her position as UCP leader, but being seen as a big reason why the federal Liberals were able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat might prove to be very politically damaging.

If this election does represent a true realignment of Canadian politics, as some political watchers are suggesting, then maybe the Liberals will make historic gains in Calgary and Edmonton. A strong showing by the Liberals in Alberta, especially in the popular vote, could build a fascinating bulwark against people who would use a Conservative defeat to bang the drums of Alberta separatism.

(If you don’t follow them already, I highly recommend subscribing to Fournier’s 338Canada.ca Substack and Eric Grenier’s TheWrit.ca Substack, and their excellent The Numbers Podcast).

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Federal leaders in Alberta, again

• NDP leader Jagmeet Singh joined former premier Rachel Notley and Amazon Labour Union leader Chris Smalls at a rally for Edmonton Centre candidate Trisha Estabrooks. Journalist Jeremy Appel wrote about the event.

• Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre will make a brief stop in his childhood hometown of Calgary tomorrow. Poilievre will speak at a “Whistle Stop for Change” event at an air hanger at the Calgary International Airport at 12:30 pm on Friday, April 25.

• Liberal leader Mark Carney is making campaign stops in British Columbia and Manitoba today, putting him a quick flight away from his childhood hometown of Edmonton. Carney’s team has not released any plans to return to Alberta but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make one more quick stop in the final days of the campaign.

• In the 2021 federal election, Singh was the only party leader to visit Alberta twice. Liberal leader Justin Trudeau stopped in Calgary once and Conservative leader Erin O’Toole made a quick visit to Edmonton in that campaign.

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With Premier Smith travelling to South Korea to meet with the Governor of that country’s Gangwon state government this week, I am re-sharing an amusing article I originally published on March 22, 2023. Enjoy!

Government almost accidentally auctioned off Gangwon Bell of Friendship

If you are in the market for used office furniture or old electronics, then the Alberta Government’s online auction website is probably for you. Sometimes you might also find an old piano, intriguing piece of art, mobile trailer or heavily-used ATV, but a few months ago something very unique was put on the government’s auction block: a Bell of Friendship.

This particular Bell of Friendship was gifted to the Government of Alberta in 1981 by the then-Governor of Kangwon-do (known more commonly as Gangwon), South Korea.