Who’s going to stand up for Canada in Alberta’s separation referendum?
The time to stand up for a Strong Alberta within a Strong Canada is now.
Alberta is barrelling toward a referendum on the province’s separation from Canada.
As I write this, the organizers of the Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative campaign are travelling the province in a bid to collect more than 177,732 in-person signatures to trigger a province-wide referendum asking the question “Do you agree that the Province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?”
The signature collection period ends on May 2, 2026 and it’s expected that the group will collect a lot more signatures than the required amount.
The group behind the referendum campaign, the Alberta Prosperity Project, has been wending its way through rural and small town Alberta for years holding meetings promoting separation and replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta Pension Plan, and opposing COVID-19 public health restrictions.
Regional alienation and unhappiness with Ottawa is nothing new in Alberta. Many Albertans harbour various levels of grievances, both real and perceived, towards the federal government. But it doesn’t take much digging to also discover that the APP’s leadership and many of its supporters espouse some pretty radical views about immigrants and embrace conspiracy theories about COVID-19, the World Economic Forum, United Nations, World Health Organization, vaccinations, and a communist new world order.
The years-long travelling road show has given the group and its allies a lot of time to build a network of supporters across the province and lay the groundwork for their referendum campaign.
Alberta separatists have traditionally been relegated to small fringe political parties on the far-right, but most polling shows that separatist sentiments are now strong almost exclusively among United Conservative Party voters. In their move from the fringe, they’ve become part of the mainstream inside the UCP.
The UCP AGM last November saw candidates endorsed by separatist groups winning a majority of positions in the board of directors elections and APP lawyer Jeff Rath was given a standing ovation when he challenged Premier Danielle Smith’s warming relationship with Prime Minister Mark Carney. The party even bestowed APP CEO and Stay Free Alberta leader Mitch Sylvestre, who is the President of the UCP constituency association in Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, with its annual Best Fundraiser Award.
Sylvestre and APP co-founder Dr. Dennis Modry, who briefly ran for the UCP nomination in Edmonton-Riverview in 2022, were pictured sharing a laugh with Smith at the party’s fundraising dinner in Bonnyville in May 2025.
The UCP’s establishment blocked attempts to have an official debate about separatism at the party’s AGM but Postmedia columnist Don Braid writes that party president Rob Smith is now openly musing about holding a vote on whether to adopt separatism as a party policy.
We know who’s leading the separatist side, but who’s going to lead the pro-Canada campaign?
It’s still unclear who will lead the pro-Canada side in a referendum campaign that could happen as early as fall of this year. This is likely because a lot of prominent supporters of federalism in Alberta have had a hard time believing Albertans would vote in favour of separation or that a referendum will even be held in the first place.
Polls show support for Alberta leaving Canada sits at around 28 per cent and drops to 15 per cent when people are faced with the possible consequences, but this is not the time for Albertans who also count themselves as proud Canadians to be complacent.
In another time, the Premier of Alberta would be a strong voice against separatism, but Smith is now leading a party with an activist base deeply engaged in the separatist movement and she is not interested in upsetting that base of supporters.
Smith continues to take shelter behind the Alberta Next proposals and the well-used talking point that she supports a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” This has not hurt her in the polls and, so far, appears to have helped her maintain the support of both separatists and Albertans who are cool to separatism but still think the province is getting a bad deal from Ottawa.
Over the decade when Justin Trudeau was Prime Minister, there appeared to be a real lack of understanding among many politicians in Ottawa about how much Alberta’s oil and gas sector wasn’t solely an economic issue. The oil and gas industry is intertwined into Alberta’s culture and politics, which makes it unsurprising that perceived attacks against it would get an emotional reaction.
That’s one of the reasons why Smith’s memorandum of understanding with Prime Minister Mark Carney was such an important political moment. Having grown up in Edmonton, Carney almost certainly has a better understanding of Albertans and the politics of this place.
There are some strong contenders to lead the pro-Canada forces in a referendum campaign and it might even be the case that there are multiple people leading multiple campaigns.
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has tried to position himself as Captain Canada by going so far as outright calling Smith a separatist. Nenshi has challenged UCP MLAs to publicly sign a pro-Canada pledge and arguments from NDP MLAs like Edmonton-Whitemud’s Rakhi Pancholi have been strong and compelling. So far the tactic has attracted no bites.
The former three-term Calgary mayor is one of only a few politicians who can claim to have pretty broad name recognition across Alberta, but the partisan divide in Alberta is still deep. Despite a UCP government wading up to their waist in scandals and allegations of corruption and a growing number of Albertans signalling their unhappiness with the direction of the economy, the NDP hasn’t been able to gain traction in the polls.
Nenshi has positioned the NDP as the “Stand up for Canada” party but he needs to appeal to that significant group of Albertans who want our province to remain in Canada but also think we could get a better deal out of Confederation. Nenshi should come up with some concrete and aspirational ideas aimed at improving Alberta’s position within Canada because the status quo isn’t going to be good enough.
At this point it feels unlikely that the leader of the Official Opposition, even the largest opposition caucus in Alberta’s history, could convincingly build a coalition broader than the space already occupied by the NDP.
Former Progressive Conservative MLA and deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk was the public face of the Forever Canadian citizen initiative in 2025. The wildly successful grassroots campaign collected the signatures of 456,365 Albertans who support of Alberta staying in Canada.
Lukaszuk traveled the province in his Unity Bus and drew the support of former premier Ed Stelmach, former Edmonton mayor Don Iveson, former federal MPs Anne McLellan and Ian McClelland, and former PC cabinet minsters and MLAs including Shirley McClellan and Verlyn Olson.
Forever Canadian was a broad coalition but Lukaszuk’s long history as an unapologetic keyboard warrior and online critic of Smith and former premier Jason Kenney might make some people question whether he’s the person to lead an even broader pro-Canada coalition in the upcoming referendum campaign.
Kenney has been an outspoken critic of the separatist movement and the APP’s leadership’s attempts to curry the favour of President Donald Trump’s government in Washington DC but his thorny relationship with Lukaszuk is long-standing. Kenney described the Forever Canadian petition as unhelpful and couldn’t even bring himself to say Lukaszuk’s name during his recent appearance on The Herle Burly Podcast.
Some hatchets and political disputes might feel too tough to bury, but our leaders will need to put Canada ahead of their own pride and bruised egos.
First Nations leaders representing communities in Treaties 6, 7 and 8 have been very vocal in their opposition to separation and their commitment to preserving the treaties signed with the Crown, represented by the federal government in Ottawa and at least one prominent First Nations voice — University of Alberta’s Matthew Wildcat — suggests this needs to be part of a more united political movement.
Edmonton Mayor Andrew Knack and Calgary Mayor Jeromy Farkas have been clear about their support for remaining in Canada, as has Alberta Federation of Labour President Gil McGowan. Business leaders in Edmonton have warned about the economic havoc a referendum could wreak on Alberta and Nancy Southern, CEO of the ATCO corporation, has warned against the damage it could have on the province.
Along with the NDP MLAs in the opposition benches of the Legislative Assembly, former UCP MLA-turned-leader of the Progressive Tory Party of Alberta, Peter Guthrie, has been vocal in his opposition to separatism, as has Independent Lesser Slave Lake MLA Scott Sinclair.
Liberal Corey Hogan made his views on Alberta separatism clear during his successful campaign for election in Calgary-Confederation in 2025 by making the clever “Confederation is worth fighting for” his campaign slogan.
Disappointingly, Alberta’s UCP MLAs and Conservative MPs have remained mostly silent or very low-key about how they would vote in a separation referendum.
There are no shortage of federal politicians with deep and meaningful connections to Alberta. Prime Minister Carney grew up in Edmonton and launched his campaign for the Liberal Party leadership at the Laurier Heights Community Hall, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was born and raised in Calgary and is the MP for Battle River-Crowfoot, and Edmonton Strathcona NDP MP Heather McPherson is from Edmonton and is a frontrunner for the federal NDP leadership race.
Past political leaders like former premier Rachel Notley and former prime minister Stephen Harper could also lend their powerful voices and credibility to the pro-Canada efforts.
This is mostly a list of politicians, but there are plenty of Albertans from sports, cultural, creative, community, and business backgrounds who could step up and out of the spotlight to champion Canada in Alberta.
Time to stand up for a strong Alberta within a strong Canada
A majority of Albertans would vote against leaving Canada if a referendum were held today, but referendums and political campaigns can take unexpected and wild twists and turns. There is too much at stake to simply expect a referendum held 10 months from now will be easily defeated.
That’s why it is more important than ever that a broad and welcoming pro-Canada campaign emerge. Any campaign’s leadership shouldn’t assume they have a referendum win in the bag and they can’t wait until the referendum is called to start campaigning.
The referendum could redefine our politics and divide and damage communities and families in Alberta like never before — and will almost certainly be a target of foreign groups and governments with an interest in destabilizing our country. Alberta is a ripe target.
Social media is already being inundated by AI-generated images and “fact” sheets promoting separatism, and most of them draw on emotional arguments and stereotypes about how Albertans define themselves and other Canadians. Some of them are comical but a lot of them could be effective. It will be quantity over quality.
While separation is not popular, it’s almost certain that the campaign to convince Albertans to leave Canada will try to make the ballot question on people’s minds about something else.
The pro-Canada campaign must be unabashedly and positively pro-Canadian and pro-Albertan. If I were to suggest a talking point, I would say that instead of being a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada,” as Smith frequently says, we should build a strong Alberta within a strong Canada.
Now more than ever, with growing economic and political threats from Trump’s America, having a strong Canada from coast to coast to coast is critical.
As Edmonton City Councillor Michael Janz recently told the Edmonton Journal, “It’s OK to have beefs with the federal government, the provincial government or your local government, but we need to work together.”
A pro-Canada campaign should show humility and understanding of Albertans who feel a genuine mistrust and unhappiness of the federal government. Alberta isn’t perfect and neither is Canada but it’s one of the best countries to live in — and any campaign that is interpreted as condescendingly pro-Ottawa will turn large swaths of Albertans off.
And most of all, it should remind Albertans that you can be Canadian and Albertan at the same time.
Now is the time for proud Canadians and proud Albertans to get themselves organized, because Alberta and Canada are depending on it.
Thank you for reading and subscribing
Thank you for reading and subscribing to Daveberta. It continues to be a pleasure to write about Alberta politics and share it with the nearly 8,900 subscribers of this newsletter.
If you like what you read here today, please feel free to share it with your friends and colleagues. And if you have any feedback or questions, feel free to leave a comment below or email me at david.cournoyer@gmail.com.
2026 is going to be an important year in Alberta and I’m looking forward to sharing my analysis and observations about what is happening with you.
Cheers,
Dave
Good questions Dave. Who will stand up for Canada? We do need a strong leader to speak for all of us loyal Canadians in Alberta. I feel like PMMC is doing a fantastic job on the world stage and here in Canada. I would now love to see him take a hard line against the Alberta separatists and stand up FOR the Canada Health Act. That would be a great start 🇨🇦
I think part of the strategy should be pointing out that the APP’s absurd and racist right wing goals in separation would be the foundation for the constitution of a new country of Alberta. And anyone thinking this new nation would be a democracy with non conservative choices is fooling themselves.
I’ll be calling a realtor and leaving this nuthouse province if this referendum starts to look like it has any possibility of passing.