Danielle Smith does a victory lap on Trump's oil and gas tariffs

But remember, this is not a trade war.

The Canadian flag waving in the wind in Jasper National Park in January 2025 (source: Dave Cournoyer)

With American President Donald Trump announcing 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian products imported from Canada into the United States and a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian oil and gas, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing retaliatory 25 per cent tariffs on US imports, the era of free trade between Canada and the United States appears to have come to an end.

But despite all the tariffs, this is not a trade war.

Trump’s tariffs were not imposed as a retaliation to any trade dispute or economic disagreement his country has with Canada. Trump claims the tariffs are a response to illegal fentanyl crossing the US border from Canada and Mexico, but his frequent rants on social media about annexing Canada to make it the 51st State mean it’s unlikely that any action on border security taken by Canadian federal or provincial government’s will actually appease the US President.

Trump once again posted a threat to annex Canada as the 51st State on his Truth Social social media platform on February 2, 2025 (source: Screenshot)

It was also clear from the moment Trump first made his threat that this was not up for negotiation. It’s been widely speculated that Trump believes he is using the tariffs to generate revenue to offset the cost of tax cuts he promised in the last election, but in doing so, he’s bullying a neighbouring country that has historically been America’s closest economic partner and most reliable ally.

Team Canada (minus Alberta)

While Trudeau and most provincial and territorial Premiers have rallied around a “Team Canada” response, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith shunned her counterparts to launch her own charm offensive south of the border. Smith and United Conservative Party cabinet ministers have made numerous trips to the United States since Trump was elected in November 2024 and the Premier plans to return to the American capital in the coming weeks.

The Alberta Premier’s reluctance to embrace a Team Canada approach led by Trudeau isn’t surprising. Trudeau is deeply unpopular in Alberta and is used by Smith’s UCP as a political punching bag on a daily basis. And increasing provincial autonomy from Ottawa has been one of Smith’s key goals since she entered the Premier’s Office in 2022, so being the odd-Premier-out is a natural fit.

Three senior UCP cabinet ministers, Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange, Minister of Affordability and Utilities Nathan Neudorf, and Minister of Mental Health and Addiction Dan Williams, are in Washington DC this week to meet with American officials and attend National Prayer Breakfast events.

It’s not clear what exactly the three UCP cabinet ministers will say while they are in the American capital but it is clear that the time for hobnobbing and polite small talk is over.

Danielle Smith takes a victory lap

Smith took a victory lap in an op-ed published in the National Post this weekend where she framed Trump’s 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil and gas as a win. But if Smith’s stateside charm offensive, including a quick visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago with celebrity investor Kevin O’Leary and conservative gadfly Jordan Peterson, was a success why are there any tariffs on Canadian oil and gas at all?

Smith’s victory lap could make it harder for her to make the case that the rest of Canada needs to provide additional support to offset the impact of the American tariffs on Canadian oil and gas. The lower tariffs are going to make it more difficult to make the argument that Alberta needs to suffer less, or needs to have more support from Ottawa than other regions of Canada.

Canadian Labour Congress President Bea Bruske called for cutting off oil and gas shipments to the US, but Smith says she will push back if the federal government tries to turn off the taps.

Smith made a pretty convincing case for not shutting off oil and gas in her recent interview on

Paul Wells

’ podcast, noting that oil shipped from Alberta to refineries in Ontario, like the one in Sarnia, is mostly transported through pipelines that go through Michigan. This might retroactively make a stronger case for building something like the defunct Energy East Pipeline proposal, but building thousands of kilometres of pipeline is not a quick fix to a problem staring us in the face today.

Nenshi asks: Where’s the beef?

While Smith has been talking a lot about tariff exemptions for oil and gas, that isn’t the only major industry in Alberta that will be impacted by Trump’s tariffs. The tariffs could also have a big impact on cattle ranchers who move their livestock across the border multiple times before the cattle are sent to packing plants.

“While lower tariffs on oil and gas are welcome, other sectors in Alberta will face devastating 25% tariffs, including agriculture and manufacturing,” said Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi.

“For example, this government has failed to take proactive measures to safeguard our producers, promote our agricultural products, and ensure Alberta remains competitive on the global stage,” Nenshi said. “These tariffs put at risk the billions of agricultural goods Alberta producers and farmers export to our southern neighbours.”

Smith’s enthusiastic cross-border advocacy for the oil and gas industry is not a surprise, but the lack of focus on other important industries in the province is puzzling, especially when you consider how much money the large oil and gas corporations are also likely spending on lobbyists in Washington DC.

What happens now?

With tariffs soon in place and Canadian sports fans booing the Star-Spangled Banner in hockey arenas and basketball stadiums across the country, it’s likely that tensions between the two countries will escalate before it calms down. Trump’s tariffs will destroy a lot of goodwill that Canadians have held for their American neighbours, especially if he continues his threats of annexing Canada, and it is unlikely we will forgive and forget these transgressions anytime soon.

This poses a big challenge for Smith, who is a fan of many of the key players in Trump’s orbit and sees herself as a kind of Canadian interlocutor in the MAGA world. She has also spent years playing footsie with Alberta separatists by making provincial autonomy a key part of her governing agenda, so enthusiastically joining Team Canada will not come naturally (or it will come with a price from her base of supporters).

Smith is a smart communicator and no political slouch, but in politics being too clever by half can be a dangerous thing.

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