Danielle Smith shows her love for Canada by holding a separation referendum
Does it make any sense? No. But not much does in Alberta politics these days.
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
That’s the referendum question that Premier Danielle Smith has decided to put on the 10th paper ballot that Albertans will be handed when they show up to vote on October 19, 2026.
Smith says the wordy multiple choice question was her only option because the court ruling quashing Elections Alberta’s approval of the separatist Stay Free Alberta citizen initiative petition ruled out a question where yes and no were the only answers.
Smith had an option to not hold the referendum at all but she opened this can of worms and it won’t easily be closed. The populist-turned-separatist-wing of the United Conservative Party that booted former premier Jason Kenney and then boosted Smith into the Premier’s Office is now firmly entrenched in the governing party — and they are not going away.
Despite polls consistently showing that around 70 per cent of Albertans would vote to stay in Canada, Smith is moving ahead on this referendum because the 30 per cent who would vote to leave are almost entirely supporters of her UCP (more than half of UCP voters, according to most polls).
Smith told reporters today that she’s fighting for Canada, has always fought for Canada, and will campaign for the stay side in the Alberta separation referendum that she is making sure happens in October.
She said all that with a straight face.
No patriotic Canadian would do what Smith has done up until now and continues to do.
Smith’s assertion that she is just standing up for more provincial autonomy and less interference from Ottawa is a story that can be told about every province in Canada since 1867, but only Quebec — and now Alberta — have made breaking up the country a real option available to voters.
From Smith’s endorsement of the Free Alberta Strategy to the introduction of the Sovereignty Act to openly threatening national unity to moving the citizen initiative goalposts for the separatists to this week’s committee fiasco, the intent was always to push Alberta closer to a political crisis that she believes she can control.
She said today that she couldn’t ignore the wishes of 700,000 Albertans who are believed to have signed two citizen initiative petitions. But she would still be ignoring the 456,000 Albertans who signed the Forever Canadian petition if a judge hadn’t quashed Elections Alberta’s approval of UCP constituency president Mitch Sylvestre’s Stay Free Alberta separatist petition.
Nine other referendum questions will be on the ballot, including a handful that aim to remove or further restrict access for refugees and immigrants to public education and health care in Alberta. Given the anti-immigrant ideas promoted by separatist activists who have called for mass deportations of new Canadians, it is no shock that these questions have been paired with the separation referendum question.
This is why it’s so important that Albertans judge Smith by her actions and not by her confidently delivered statements at press conferences or quips on her weekend radio show.
The decision to put this wordy separation referendum question to Albertans was Smith’s to make and, if you want to believe her explanation, she’s doing it because she loves Canada.
Does it make any sense? No. But that’s how we got here. What happens next is up in the air.
No one is happy with the separation question
The wording of the referendum question will make no one happy.
Many, if not most, of the more than 456,000 Albertans who signed Thomas Lukaszuk’s pro-Canada Forever Canadian petition did so with the belief it would block an actual separation referendum from ever happening. Lukaszuk said he’d rather have MLAs vote on the question in the Legislature to save Albertans from having a costly and divisive referendum.
The leaders of Alberta’s separatist Stay Free Alberta petition are spitting mad and calling for Smith to be toppled by UCP members for not holding a yes or no question. Some separatist organizers are trying to convince 22 UCP constituency association presidents to sign a letter to trigger a Special General Meeting to remove Smith as party leader before October.
Outside these two camps, I imagine a lot of Albertans are fairly confused about the whole situation.
Referendum for another referendum blocks unilateral declaration of independence
Grinding the gears of many separatist organizers is the referendum for another referendum-style question.
A referendum to hold a referendum to open constitutional negotiations is a pretty dry rally slogan and it robs more radical separatist elements of the temptation to just unilaterally declare independence if a clear separation question was successful.
Since there is no separation process in the Canadian constitution, we’ll have to guess what Smith believes the next steps would be. Legal minds I have spoken with suggest that the constitution would need to be amended and we all know how long and drawn out that process would be.
Some prominent separatist organizers have openly dangled the threat of American President Donald Trump immediately recognizing Alberta’s independence, forcing the hand of the federal government and other provinces that would want to undertake constitutional negotiations.
Separatists are entrenched in the UCP and aren’t going away
Former conservative party premiers Peter Lougheed and Ralph Klein would have told the separatists to pound dirt and wouldn’t have allowed them to dig themselves into their party like they have in the UCP.
The referendum will almost certainly further deepen the divide in conservative politics in this province along pro-Canada and pro-separation lines.
In her press conference today, Smith called for the losing side of this referendum to “accept the judgement of people and the direction that we go.”
That seems unlikely.
This referendum is guaranteed to string out this debate.
While many Albertans who support separatism have longstanding legitimate and perceived grievances against Ottawa, it is important to remember that the current version of the Alberta separatist movement doesn’t have its roots in old timey grievances about NEP, the metric system, or Official Bilingualism.
The current crop of separatist leaders cut their political teeth opposing public health restrictions and vaccine requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic. They are well-organized and have now embraced many of the fringy online conspiracy theories associated with the MAGA movement south of the border.
A UCP member connected to the Centurion Project, the group responsible for the largest privacy breach of personal information in Canadian history, has already submitted a policy resolution for the UCP AGM in November 2026 for the party to officially endorse Alberta leaving Canada.
Given the enthusiastic support for Alberta separatism among the UCP’s most engaged activists, it seems entirely possible that delegates at the party’s AGM could endorse a policy of separating from Canada, regardless of the referendum results.
This week’s pre-referendum cabinet shuffle and the release of a new election-style ad with the tagline “Getting the job done” suggests Smith is already on the campaign trail for her own job, and leaving her options open for a snap election if things really go sideways (the UCP continues to lead the NDP in recent polls and in party fundraising).
Captain Canadas begin to step up
First Nations Chiefs and leaders have been a strong legal bulwark against the separation referendum and played a central role in blocking the Stay Free Alberta petition. The Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations released another statement yesterday:
“First Nations are once again carrying the burden of defending the Constitution of Canada while the Government of Canada remains silent. The Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations calls directly on the Government of Canada to step up and fulfil its duty to protect Treaty Rights, the rule of law and the Constitution. This is a Treaty matter, and this unacceptable silence and inaction dishonour the Treaty relationship.
We will not be idle. The Confederacy will continue this battle in unity with all Treaty No. 7 and No. 8 Nations.
Treaty is forever.”
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi held a rally today in Calgary’s Confederation Park as part of his party’s For Alberta For Canada campaign.
“All of us have a role to play, and now is the time to stand together For Alberta, For Canada,” Nenshi said at the rally today. “That’s why I’m thrilled that proud Canadians like Olympic gold medalist Catriona Le May Doan are speaking out, lending their voice in the fight to save Canada. Thank you Catriona for joining us at our rally today in Calgary and for sharing why you will be standing up to save Canada.”
A group of pro-Canada conservatives led former federal cabinet minister Monte Solberg, former premier Kenney, former finance minister Travis Toews, and political writer Jen Gerson have launched VoteToStay.ca.
“Our goal is simple: inform voters, listen to their concerns, and get more people on board with pledging their vote to stay,” Solberg said in a press release today. “This is about engaging Albertans directly and building a movement rooted in facts, respect, and a shared commitment to Alberta’s future within a united in Canada.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, who grew up in Edmonton, released a video today in which he talked about the important role Alberta plays in Canada.
Federal Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who represents the rural Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot, announced yesterday that he would campaign for Canada in the referendum.
Curiously missing from the growing roster of pro-Canada conservatives in Alberta is former prime minister and Bragg Creek resident Stephen Harper. His silence on this referendum question can’t last for long.
Recommended reading
There has been no shortage of smart commentary about Smith’s separation referendum question published over the last 24 hours.
I encourage you to add these columns, articles, and podcasts by Jared Wesley, Jen Gerson, David Climenhaga, Lisa Young, Paul Wells, Jeremy Appel, Arlene Dickinson, Joseph Lavoie and Evan Menzies, and Kyla Ronellenfitsch to your weekend reading list.
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Thanks again,
Dave
Love your comment, Dave - "She said all that with a straight face."...... how she is able to talk out of both sides of her mouth and not choke is her single greateat feature.
Thanks Dave for your clarity and humour.