Lethbridge-West by-election a big test for Naheed Nenshi and Danielle Smith
Race to replace Shannon Phillips called for December 18
Nearly five months after Alberta NDP MLA Shannon Phillips resigned her seat in the Legislature, a by-election has been called in Lethbridge-West and it’s happening on December 18.
For the past five years, this urban riding located in southwest Alberta has been an electoral anomaly: a lone orange island surrounded by a sea of blue. The riding was one of two won by the NDP in 2023 that was outside of the immediate Edmonton and Calgary areas.
The NDP are hoping that former City Councillor Rob Miyashiro can continue the winning streak that started when Phillips’ first won the riding in 2015.
Miyashiro is a well-liked local figure from his two terms on city council from 2013 to 2021 and in his longtime role as Executive Director of the Lethbridge Senior Citizens Organization. This is his third time running as a provincial candidate in Lethbridge, having run in the neighbouring Lethbridge-East as a Liberal in 2012 and a New Democrat in 2023 (that neighbouring riding was represented by Liberal MLAs from 1993 to 2011).
The United Conservative Party are pinning their hopes on City Councillor John Middleton-Hope candidacy. As the city’s former police chief and a police officer in Calgary for two decades before that, Middleton-Hope’s tough on crime agenda from his city council campaign in 2021 fits neatly into the UCP’s “crime and social disorder” narrative.
The UCP have never won this riding before, which was represented by Progressive Conservative MLAs before Phillips’ win, so the stakes are somewhat lower for the governing party. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to win it now.
The governing party is pouring resources into Middleton-Hope’s campaign, with Premier Danielle Smith and various cabinet ministers making high-profile stops in the riding over the past few months, and the UCP holding its pre-session caucus retreat in the city in October. Smith will be back in the riding tomorrow for a door-knocking blitz with Middleton-Hope.
The stakes are much higher for NDP leader Naheed Nenshi. The results of the by-election in this riding could serve as an indicator of his popularity outside of the Calgary. A win would mean the NDP retains a seat it has held since 2015. A loss could cast doubt on Nenshi’s appeal outside of Calgary and his ability to lead the NDP to victory in the 2027 provincial election.
A UCP win would symbolically isolate the NDP in the two big cities and provide Smith with validation for her government’s agenda and her own controversial political positions.
A win is not guaranteed for the NDP but there is little indication the party has lost ground since the last election. In Lethbridge-West, the NDP have had a strong ground game in this riding for more than a decade in large part because of Phillips’ skills in political organizing.
The two main party leaders shot back and fourth at each other through the media over the past few weeks about the timing of the by-election, with Smith cheekily suggesting she was waiting for an NDP MLA in Calgary to resign so Nenshi could run in another by-election at the same time. Nenshi responded by calling on Smith to fire a UCP cabinet minister in Calgary to trigger a by-election for him.
And with the by-election finally called this week, Nenshi accused Smith of cynically scheduling it just before Christmas and at the end of final exams in hopes that students at the University of Lethbridge and busy families won’t bother voting. Smith responded again that she was waiting for Nenshi to make up his mind.
The geographic distance between Lethbridge and the Legislature in Edmonton, about 500 kilometres, will make it difficult for many MLAs to campaign in the by-election over the next two weeks. But when the fall session of the Legislature ends for the Christmas break on December 4, I expect a large number of MLAs from both parties will head south to campaign in the by-election.
Like provincial politics in Alberta has been since 2019, it feels pretty clear that is a two party race between the NDP and UCP. Smaller parties like the Alberta Party, which has named Layton Veverka as its candidate in the by-election, will have a big uphill battle to get attention.
This by-election won’t change who forms government now and might not even resemble to results of the next provincial election in 2027 but, like any opposition party, the NDP really want this by-election to be a referendum on the government.
“Lethbridge-West residents will finally have their chance to send Danielle Smith a message that better is possible,” Nenshi said in a press release on the day the by-election was called. “This by-election is an opportunity for Lethbridge-West residents to say enough is enough, we need change that will provide all of us a better future.”
There’s no shortage of issues that the NDP could criticize the UCP about, and that is part of the problem. A firehose of chaotic announcements, pronouncements, restructuring, firings, hirings, and appointments coming from the UCP government on a daily basis has made it difficult for the NDP opposition to break through the noise.
To their credit, the NDP has abandoned the almost equally hard to follow tactic of responding to every single issue with a barrage of hourly press releases, which was the norm under former leader Rachel Notley. But five months after Nenshi won the party’s leadership it’s still difficult to figure out what are the top issues the NDP want front and centre.
It is also certainly possible that important local issues not on the radar of political watchers observing from afar could be on the minds of voters in Lethbridge-West. If that’s the case, then the results of the by-election might end up being a bigger indicator of just how much attention voters in the city are or aren’t paying attention to provincial politics.
We’ll find out in 26 days.
Important by-election dates:
Candidate nominations are open until November 30 at 2:00 pm.
Tuesday, December 10 – Advance voting begins.
Saturday, December 14 – Last day of advance voting.
Wednesday, December 18 – Election Day. All voting places will be open from 9:00 am to 8:00 pm.
Stephen Harper appointed new AIMCo chair
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the new chairperson of the board of directors of AIMCo, the crown corporation responsible for managing more than $160 billion worth of Alberta government and public sector pension investments. Harper’s appointment comes a week after Finance Minister Nate Horner fired the previous board and replaced CEO Evan Siddall with the temporary appointment of senior public servant Ray Gilmour.
Harper is joined on the AIMCo board by Bob Dhillon, Jason Montemurro, and James Keohane, members of the fired board who have been reappointed. Also joining the board is Deputy Minister of Finance, Katherine White, which will significantly increase direct government influence over what is supposed to be an arms-length body.
While I suspect that Harper’s appointment will be reassuring to many Albertans who supported him as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, I suspect reaction to his appointment is, in part, a sort of Rorschach test for people’s individual partisan loyalties.
Also of note is the announcement this week that Dale McFee plans to retire from his job as Edmonton’s Chief of Police. It’s an open secret in most political circles that the UCP would love to recruit McFee to replace Gilmour in the role of Deputy Minister of Executive Council on a permanent basis.
A few more things…
Minister of Health Adriana LaGrange announced this week that the dismantling of the province-wide health authority known as Alberta Health Services will continue next spring when Acute Care Alberta will be operational. Acute Care Alberta will ostensibly act as another province-wide health authority overseeing hospitals, health care centres currently operated by Alberta Health Services and Catholic-health provider Covenant Health, and private surgical facilities operated by private corporations.
Premier Smith announced that the government plans to increase the auto insurance premium cap on good drivers from the current 3.7 per cent to 7.5 per cent in the new year and plans to create a new privately delivered auto insurance system that aims to limit legal action in certain instances.
Edmonton Centre Liberal MP Randy Boissonnault resigned from the federal cabinet after facing months of allegations and accusations about his former business partner’s questionable activities and how he has publicly described his relationship to his adopted family’s indigenous heritage. His resignation means there are now no federal cabinet ministers from Alberta.
A citizens’ group campaigning in favour of a Southern Alberta coal mine project in the Crowsnest Pass area has undisclosed connection to an oil and gas lobbying group, according to a Great West Media investigation. Residents of Crowsnest Pass will vote in a non-binding plebiscite on November 25 to determine the community’s stance on the development of a metallurgical coal mine at Grassy Mountain.
Earlier this week, country music artist Corb Lund played a sold-out benefit concert in Coleman, with money going to Crowsnest Headwaters, a local group committed to protecting the area. Lund has been very vocal about his opposition to open-pit coal mining in the Eastern Slopes.
City Councillor Tim Cartmell launched his campaign for Mayor of Edmonton. Speaking yesterday on Ryan Jespersen’s Real Talk, Cartmell says he plans to run for a currently unnamed municipal political party and hopes to recruit like-minded candidates to run for City Council under his banner. Cartmell has represented south Edmonton on City Council since 2017 and is seen as having closer connections to the UCP than most of his councillor colleagues.
Two fledgling municipal political groups, PACE (led by former PC MLA Doug Main) and TAPYEG (led by gondola enthusiast Jeffrey Hansen-Carlson) are expected to announce their merger at an event this weekend.
According to the Gulf Islands Driftwood news, Edmonton-Strathcona MLA and former NDP leader Rachel Notley recently spoke to a crowd at the Salt Spring Forum where she was presented with an honorary membership in the Salt Spring Unicorn Riders Association (SSURA).
According to the article in the Driftwood, the lighthearted SSURA was created after Notley made headlines back in 2018 when she said people in Alberta “ride horses, not unicorns” when criticizing anti-pipeline activities and mentioning Salt Spring Island at the same time.
Thank you for reading
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Thanks again,
Dave
Thanks Dave. You are the go to guy for what's ticking in City & AB politics. It's interesting the UCP candidate is late of the Lethbridge Police given Shannon Phillips when she was MLA was harassed & stalked by members of the Lethbridge police. She had to fight to get the police to do anything about it. No one lost their job, just got reprimanded. The UCP, high on the MAGA win in the US, will throw everything at this riding & do anything for a win. This is Take Back Alberta home country.
Appointing Stephen Harper as CEO of AIMCo distracts from the really concerning move of AIMCo to under political control. (A replacement for the Tapscal Trust perhaps?) For those enamoured by this move, how would they feel about Trudeau and the Liberals putting the CPP under their political control. The UCP is the foreshadow of what the real plans and policies Poilievre and the CPC have for Canada if they win a majority in the next federal election. They will run a Bait and Switch campaign just like Danielle and the UCP did in 2023.