NDP's Rob Miyashiro wins by-election in Lethbridge-West
Nenshi's NDP holds southern Alberta seat the party first won in 2015
Alberta NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro won the provincial by-election in Lethbridge-West.
Unofficial results from Elections Alberta:
Rob Miyashiro, NDP: 7,239 votes (53.4%)
John Middleton-Hope, UCP: 6,089 votes (44.9%)
Layton Veverka, Alberta Party: 233 votes (1.7%)
As the votes from the Election Day polls were counted after the voting stations closed at 8:00 p.m. last night, Miyashiro maintained a fairly consistent ~5 point lead ahead of UCP candidate and current City Councillor John Middleton-Hope. When the two large advance polls reported after 11:00 p.m., Miyashiro’s lead increased to 8 points, giving the NDP candidate a convincing win in the party’s lone seat south of Calgary.
Miyashiro succeeds former NDP MLA Shannon Phillips, who represented the riding from 2015 until her resignation last July. Phillips was a powerhouse in the NDP during the party’s time in government and opposition, and she spent years helping build a formidable NDP organization in the riding. That decade long organizing project appears to have paid off with Miyashiro’s victory over Middleton-Hope in yesterday’s by-election.
As the long-time executive director of the Lethbridge Senior Citizens Organization and a former two-term City Councillor, Miyashiro is well-known in the southern Alberta city. This was his third attempt at provincial office, having previously run twice in the neighbouring Lethbridge-East riding (in 2023 as a New Democrat and in 2012 as a Liberal).
Both the NDP and UCP poured significant organizational resources into the by-election to support their high-profile local candidates.
Premier Danielle Smith visited the riding numerous times and joined Middleton-Hope and volunteers for two door-knocking blitzes during the campaign. The UCP held its pre-fall session cabinet retreat in Lethbridge, giving cabinet ministers a chance to spread across the riding to meet with business and community groups.
Cabinet ministers Nathan Neudorf and Joseph Schow, who represent the neighbouring Lethbridge-East and Cardston-Siksika ridings, also put considerable effort into the UCP campaign.
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi and NDP MLAs also spent a considerable amount of time in the riding, and it’s not hard to explain why. The party needed to show that it could hold its electoral ground from the 2023 election. And, of the two main party leaders, the stakes of this by-election were highest for Nenshi, who needed to prove that his high-profile three-terms as Mayor of Calgary didn’t limit his party’s chances outside that big city.
Speaking at Miyashiro’s victory party in Lethbridge, Nenshi told supporters that the results of the by-election were a rebuke of Smith’s political agenda. The by-election results are a rebuke of Smith’s UCP, but a rebuke by voters who already rebuked the UCP in the 2019 and 2023 elections. So it’s unlikely we will see a big course change in the Premier’s Office as a result of yesterday’s vote.
The by-election results also suggest that the UCP’s big advertising push to brand Nenshi as a close ally of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has fallen flat with voters in this southern Alberta city.
With Miyashiro retaining Lethbridge-West for the NDP, the seat count in the Legislature remains the same and it feels like it’s status quo in Alberta politics.
The next Alberta by-election
Attention will soon turn to another by-election that is expected to be held in the first six months of 2025. Former NDP leader Rachel Notley announced last week that she will resign as the MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona on December 30, 2024.
A by-election will need to be called in the riding within six months of her resignation. It is widely expected by NDP activists and people who would otherwise be considered prospective candidates that Nenshi will run in the riding to secure a seat in the Legislature and run in a Calgary riding in the next general election.
Alberta by-election facts:
The Lethbridge-West by-election was the first time in 24 years that the NDP had to defend a seat in a by-election. The last time was the Edmonton-Highlands by-election of 2000, which saw future party leader Brian Mason win the seat previously held by former party leader Pam Barrett.
Of the 31 provincial by-elections held in the past 50 years, only five resulted in the election of a candidate from a different political party than the previous incumbent: Olds-Didsbury in 1982, Three Hills in 1992, Calgary-Elbow in 2007, Calgary-Glenmore in 2009, and Calgary-Foothills in 2015.
The last time a governing party in Alberta won a by-election in an opposition held seat was way back in 1968 when Social Credit candidate Damase Bouvier won the Lac La Biche by-election held to replace Liberal MLA Michael Magaccao. Magaccao had resigned to run as a federal Liberal in the 1968 election.
One decade since the Wildrose floor-crossings of 2014
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