Please Take Your Seats, the Show is About to Get Under Way
The next two weeks will be a lot of fun for political watchers
I’m Dave Cournoyer and this is the Daveberta Substack.
We’re halfway through the third week of Alberta’s election campaign and we’re seeing how the two main parties are laying the groundwork for this week’s marquee event: the televised leaders debate.
After a rough first two weeks of the campaign, the United Conservative Party is stepping up its attacks on the Alberta NDP’s economic record, trying to shift attention away from health care and the never-ending stream of controversial comments that have come out of Danielle Smith’s mouth.
The economy is traditionally not the firmest ground for the NDP, especially because their only term as government from 2015 to 2019 coincided with the job losses caused by the plummeting price of oil, but it is also an issue the party can’t ignore.
NDP leader Rachel Notley tried to neutralize the attacks by promising to completely eliminate the small business tax (the NDP cut the tax from 3% to 2% in 2018) and having ATB Financial’s former chief economist Todd Hirsch endorse the party’s fiscal plan.
The UCP shot back with claims that Notley will raise the corporate tax rates by 38%, which is true but not as dramatic as it sounds. The NDP would raise tax rates on large corporations from the current 8% to 11%, which would still be the lowest in Canada and lower than the 12% the NDP raised it to in 2015 (the UCP cut the corporate tax from 11% to 8% in 2020).
We’ll hear a lot more about this in the next few days.
I’m trying something a little different today on the Substack. I’ve reached out to a few insightful people from across Alberta to ask if they would share some thoughts on the campaign. Today, you’ll find some commentary in this newsletter from Justin Archer of Berlin Communications.
Thank you to everyone who reads and subscribes to the Daveberta Substack. If you like what you read here today, share it with a friend or coworker, and feel free to leave a comment or send me an email if you have any feedback or ideas you want to share.
Thanks,
Dave
PS. Just in case you missed it, paid subscribers can listen to my recent podcast interview with Éric Grenier from TheWrit.ca.
Please Take Your Seats, the Show is About to Get Under Way
By Justin Archer
This election is taking place with little fanfare, which is surprising given how competitive it is. We have two parties with almost even chances of winning, and who have very different fundamental views on the philosophical nature and role of government in a society.
In Edmonton where I live, the Oilers just-finished playoff run and the beautiful early summer weather we have been having seem to have captured the lion’s share of the public’s attention, and the wildfires across the province are making most of the news.
I suspect this will change this week starting with the leaders debate on Thursday, and people will start to tune in more the rest of the way.
A High-Stakes Moment – Wildfires Joint Photo-op
The biggest moment of the campaign so far for me was the joint photo op/advice session/boots-on-the-ground thingy between Smith and Notley. The wildfires are dangerous for all of those directly affected, and also politically dangerous for both parties.
This will remain the case throughout the campaign. Smith and Notley have both been careful not to be seen to politicize them, while of course considering every last ounce of the political implications of the way they manage this issue. It was a clever move of Notley to offer to provide advice (i.e. remind people she is an experienced Premier) and Smith handled the challenge well by meeting with Notley and including her an appearance on the front lines at an evacuation centre (i.e. demonstrated that she puts the best interests of Alberta ahead of her own political interests).
Notley surprised Smith with two difficult options, and Smith chose one and handled it very well.
The whole thing was fraught for both of them and I think they played it to a draw, politically. It was like watching two chess players competing their hardest in a high stakes match while both insisting they are not playing chess at all. Sure, you’re not.
“She’s So Scary” “Nope – SHE is!”
The parties seem very committed to a contest to show how scary the other one is. Perhaps for the bases this is true (although in a place as stable, peaceful and prosperous as Alberta, are we really actually scared of the politicians?”)
But for the voters in the centre, where this will be won and lost, I don’t know that either party leader evokes a sense of frightening terror. I suspect they are both playing “she’s scary” early in the campaign to warm up the base and will probably shift to a more vision-oriented message the rest of the way.
It will be interesting to see how much the debate turns in this direction, or if they largely move past it.
Delete Your Account
I am ashamed to admit, mostly to myself, how many hours I have scrolled through political Twitter in my life.
For those old enough to remember, there was a competitive provincial Liberal Party here in Alberta many moons ago, and I was on their central campaign team in the 2008 and 2012 elections.
In 2008 we didn’t have Twitter in Alberta politics, and by 2012 it had not only arrived but it had already turned into the Filthy Swamp of Disingenuous Hyperbole (FSDH) we all know and love. There was a year or two in between there somewhere, I can’t remember the exact ones, when it was actually quite a lovely thing if you can believe it.
I pulled the plug on my Twitter account in 2022 as an act of self care (I cannot recommend it highly enough, politicos) and so this is my first election without it in a long time. I would say I feel more disconnected from the campaign as a result, but probably have a better view of how normal people see the campaign.
Who’s Going to Win?
People ask me this all the time, and like everyone else, I don’t know. I’m also no good at predicting – I thought Jim Dinning would be Premier, then Gary Mar, and so on and so forth. But if I had to hazard a guess, I think Notley will get back in there. The NDP have clearly learned a thing or two about campaigning in the last few elections, and they have yet to do anything truly weird, which is always their Achilles heel.
The next two weeks will be a lot of fun for political watchers, I look forward to following along.
Justin Archer is a partner at Berlin Communications, an Edmonton-based public relations and advertising agency. He’s not helping anyone with anything in this campaign.
Digital Ad Watch
The UCP and NDP have been making some big digital advertising purchases on the Meta platform, which includes ads that show up on Facebook and Instagram.
According to the Meta Ad Library, the Alberta NDP spent $27,703 on digital ads between May 10 and 16, and the UCP spent $17,354 in the same period. The two parties also spent money advertising through their leaders accounts, the UCP spending $11,351 through Danielle Smith’s account and the NDP spending $2,326 through Rachel Notley’s account.
The top geographic areas targeted by the NDP ads are Calgary, Canmore, Banff and Lethbridge while the UCP ads were heavily targeted at people living in Calgary and Cochrane. Women are the target audience of 51% of the NDP ads, with 41% being shown to users of all genders and only 6% targeted specifically at men.
If you are under the age of 30, you probably aren't seeing the UCP ads because they aren't targeting you.
The UCP have been running digital ads featuring a cartoon of Notley as Pinocchio that accuses the NDP of lying about Smith’s plans for health care and pensions.
According to the Meta Ad Library, the UCP have spent between $10,000 and $15,000 promoting versions of this one ad, which has had between 900,000 and 1,000,000 impressions on Facebook and Instagram. It directs to the UCP’s attack website, NDPlies.com.
A quick glance of the NDPlies website frames claims like "The UCP sold Alberta parks” and "The UCP is fighting with and firing nurses" as lies the NDP is telling Albertans. The UCP is not currently doing these things but they are things the UCP tried to do and were forced to back down from because they were so unpopular (and are a big reason why the UCP doesn’t have a 20-point lead in the polls like it did in the 2019 election).
The NDP have spent between $7,000 and $8,000 on a digital ad featuring a video recording of Danielle Smith admitting that she refused to wear a poppy on Remembrance Day as a protest against COVID-19 health measures. That ad has more than 1 million impressions on Facebook and Instagram.
A few more things
POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook is hosting Alberta Election Trivia nights on May 23 at Calgary’s Hose and Hound Neighbourhood Pub and on May 24 at Edmonton’s Hudson’s on Whyte. The POLITICO crew and special guest quiz masters will deliver “six rounds of brain stumpers tailor-made for the sharpest political minds.”
Public Interest Alberta and Climate Justice Edmonton are hosting a leaders debate watch party at the Bent Stick Brewing Co. in Edmonton.
The West of Centre Podcast’s most recent episode includes a panel of local reporters covering the election in Canmore, Red Deer and St. Albert.
Red Deer Advocate managing editor Byron Hackett writes about the staffing shortages and wait times at the Red Deer Regional Hospital becoming a bigger election issue in central Alberta.
Graham Thomson writes about Notley’s tightrope walk back into the Premier’s Office.
The Parkland Institute has released a new report about the Alberta Surgical Initiative. David Climenhaga breaks down the key findings.
Press Progress reports that Take Back Alberta-affiliated organizers are holding webinars training supporters on how to infiltrate campaigns, get appointed as scrutineers and raise doubts about the election results.
Former Calgary city councillor and mayoral candidate Jeromy Farkas has some harsh words for conservatives supporting Danielle Smith.
Battle River-Crowfoot Conservative MP MP Damien Kurek was spotted door knocking with UCP candidate Nate Horner in Drumheller-Stettler and Edmonton-Mill Woods MP Tim Uppal recorded a video endorsement of UCP candidate Raman Athwal, who is running for the UCP in the provincial Edmonton-Mill Woods riding.
Former Progressive Conservative MLA and deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk is travelling across Alberta to support NDP candidates in the election. He’s campaigning with Leduc-Beaumont NDP candidate Cam Heenan on May 17.
This shapes up to be a very interesting election with some players taking unexpected positions. Also—Dave, please correct me if I'm wrong here—it's one of the most competitive elections in Alberta's history. Thanks for keeping track of the goings-on.