Mar 22, 2023Liked by Dave Cournoyer

Last election, the AB Party and the ALP took 11.5% of the total vote. If, under the pressure of a tight 2-party race, that total falls to, say, 5%, who should benefit more? Have you seen any polls that considered that?

Conversely, in Calgary Elbow, if the AB candidate takes, say, the 15% total that Morashita did, who benefits more than the other between the UCP or the NDP?

Finally, if Barnes does run in CMH, which of his opponents will benefit and will it matter?

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Thanks for the comment, Morrey. Great questions.

I'm not totally sure how the Alberta Party vote would split, which makes Calgary-Elbow quite interesting. I don't recall seeing any second place preference polling out of the last election (there was some second place polling in 2015), but my gut tells me the Alberta Party vote would probably split a little heavier to the NDP than the UCP.

If Drew Barnes runs for re-election as an Independent in Cypress-Medicine Hat, I think he would mostly compete for votes with the UCP candidate, but the NDP would have to do a lot better than its 26% result in 2019 to put this riding in contention. The NDP have a well-known candidate in school trustee Cathy Hogg and the NDP did well in Medicine Hat in the 2022 Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election, but it is still a tough road for them in this riding.

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