Just like the federal conservatives a decade ago, the UCP is not a true merger, but a hostile takeover of the Progressive Conservative Party by the Wildrose. The “Red Tories” have all long since been driven from the ranks of the federal Conservative Party of Canada, and the Alberta UCP is purging itself of any remaining PC stalwarts. But Smith’s problem now will be the same one she had with her Wildrose caucus in the mid-2010s, and that Brian Jean had with his WR caucus after taking over following Smith’s disastrous floor-crossing: Wildrosers simply won’t be led. People often compare caucus management to herding cats — leading the UCP will be herding feral cats.
On top of this, we have Smith herself. She had maintained a veneer of reasonableness and respectability in the months and weeks leading up to the 2012 election — becoming a credible threat to beat Alison Redford’s PCs — and indeed as Leader of the Official Opposition during the last PC government up until that infamous floor-crossing. But now her recent years as a talk radio host have sanded away that veneer to expose the extremist heart beneath, and it isn’t pretty. There are certainly parts of Alberta where that’s a feature, not a bug, but in the two big cities where most of the votes and seats are, I think that will repel more voters than it attracts.
So whether or not we take Horner’s maxim as applying here, Brooks-Medicine Hat will be an interesting litmus test. If Dirk gains more than 30% of the vote, and Morashita also shows well, the rural dominance for Smith may not be such a slam dunk. Put another way, with the lead from 2019 that Smith has inherited and the marketing advantage of having a local Premier, she needs to do better than 40% to look strong, wouldn’t you say?
Open questions - will the WIP/IPA candidates take a meaningful chunk of the conservative vote? Will Morashita draw more votes from Dirk or from Smith? Does the weakness of the Alberta Party across the province, demonstrated by very few candidates; very little money, matter to Brooks voters? (If he won, he would be on his own in the legislature). How much of the remaining calendar will Smith be able to devote to the campaign and will that matter? How strong a campaign is each candidate putting on?
Just like the federal conservatives a decade ago, the UCP is not a true merger, but a hostile takeover of the Progressive Conservative Party by the Wildrose. The “Red Tories” have all long since been driven from the ranks of the federal Conservative Party of Canada, and the Alberta UCP is purging itself of any remaining PC stalwarts. But Smith’s problem now will be the same one she had with her Wildrose caucus in the mid-2010s, and that Brian Jean had with his WR caucus after taking over following Smith’s disastrous floor-crossing: Wildrosers simply won’t be led. People often compare caucus management to herding cats — leading the UCP will be herding feral cats.
On top of this, we have Smith herself. She had maintained a veneer of reasonableness and respectability in the months and weeks leading up to the 2012 election — becoming a credible threat to beat Alison Redford’s PCs — and indeed as Leader of the Official Opposition during the last PC government up until that infamous floor-crossing. But now her recent years as a talk radio host have sanded away that veneer to expose the extremist heart beneath, and it isn’t pretty. There are certainly parts of Alberta where that’s a feature, not a bug, but in the two big cities where most of the votes and seats are, I think that will repel more voters than it attracts.
So whether or not we take Horner’s maxim as applying here, Brooks-Medicine Hat will be an interesting litmus test. If Dirk gains more than 30% of the vote, and Morashita also shows well, the rural dominance for Smith may not be such a slam dunk. Put another way, with the lead from 2019 that Smith has inherited and the marketing advantage of having a local Premier, she needs to do better than 40% to look strong, wouldn’t you say?
Open questions - will the WIP/IPA candidates take a meaningful chunk of the conservative vote? Will Morashita draw more votes from Dirk or from Smith? Does the weakness of the Alberta Party across the province, demonstrated by very few candidates; very little money, matter to Brooks voters? (If he won, he would be on his own in the legislature). How much of the remaining calendar will Smith be able to devote to the campaign and will that matter? How strong a campaign is each candidate putting on?
Can’t wait for a poll to come out!