What’s at stake in Alberta’s mid-term by-elections
Deciphering what happens in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills could be interesting
The three by-elections happening on June 23 could have a big impact on Alberta politics, but maybe not in the way you might think. The results of the mid-term by-elections in urban Edmonton-Strathcona, suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie, and rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills are an important test for Alberta’s political leaders and the results could impact provincial politics in our province in different ways.
As I’ve written before, all elections matter but deciphering the impact of by-election results can sometimes be tricky. Most of the time by-elections in Alberta have reaffirmed the status quo, but sometimes they are blips of voter frustration and a sign of things to come.
Political change isn’t always clear in by-election results. In the 31 by-elections held in the last 50 years, only five have resulted in the election of a candidate from a different party than previously held the riding. But who wins isn’t always the most interesting thing about by-elections.
Premier Danielle Smith’s first foray into provincial politics 16 years ago was bookended by a series of important by-elections.
Smith was the perceived frontrunner for the Wildrose Alliance Party leadership after she stepped down as a lobbyist for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business to enter that party’s race in 2009, but it was an unexpected by-election win that helped boosted the party’s momentum.
As Smith was running for leader, outgoing party leader Paul Hinman surprised political watchers when he won a by-election in the longtime Progressive Conservative-held Calgary-Glenmore riding. (Hinman is now the leader of the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition, a right-wing separatist party that he created after he was pushed out of the leadership of the Wildrose Independence Party in 2023).
That 2009 by-election put Wildrose back on the map after Hinman lost his bid for re-election in Cardston-Taber-Warner in 2008 and it foreshadowed Smith’s party overtaking the Liberals as the Official Opposition three years later. Only a few months later Hinman was joined by floor-crossers from the PC Caucus, including a young first-term PC MLA for Airdrie-Chestermere named Rob Anderson. Today, Anderson is Premier Smith’s Chief of Staff.
Five years later, Smith was the MLA for Highwood and the Leader of the Official Opposition when by-elections were called in a handful of Calgary and Edmonton ridings. Despite her party’s gains in the 2012 election and two solid years of PC government scandals, Wildrose hopes of capitalizing on any momentum evaporated as new Premier Jim Prentice and his three PC candidates sailed to by-election victories in Calgary-Elbow, Calgary-Foothills, Calgary-West, and Edmonton-Whitemud.
Smith’s Wildrose Party failed to win in Calgary-West, a riding the party poured considerable resources into, and placed third behind the NDP in Edmonton-Whitemud and Alberta Party in Calgary-Elbow, foreshadowing a then-unbelievable majority election win by Rachel Notley’s NDP and one-seat breakthrough by Alberta Party leader Greg Clark a few months later.
Less than two months after these by-elections, Smith, Anderson and most of her Wildrose MLAs crossed the floor to Prentice’s PCs. Smith lost her bid to win the PC nomination in her riding and none of the Wildrose floor crossers were re-elected in the next year’s general election. And with that by-election bookend, Smith’s first foray into provincial politics came to an end.
What’s at stake in the June 23 by-elections
The three by-elections on June 23 have different stakes for different parties.
Edmonton-Strathcona
Edmonton-Strathcona is a very safe NDP seat and party leader Naheed Nenshi should have no trouble winning that race. Nenshi has the endorsement of former MLA and premier Rachel Notley, who was first elected in the riding in 2008 and was re-elected in 2023 with 79 percent of the vote.
While the UCP is under no illusion that they will win a riding the NDP has won in almost every election since 1986, political staffer Darby Crouch has used her platform as a candidate to try to frame Nenshi as an out of touch outsider. That may have little impact in Strathcona’s reliably NDP-voting left-leaning and gentrifying neighbourhoods, but it might have an impact in other ridings the UCP hopes to pick up in the capital city, like suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie.
Candidates
Darby Crouch, United Conservative Party
Ravina Chand, Republican Party
Naheed Nenshi, Alberta NDP
Samuel Petrov, Alberta Party
Don Slater, Liberal Party
Jesse Stretch, Wildrose Loyalty Coalition
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Southeast suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie might be the sleeper race among the three by-elections and it might end up being the most interesting when the votes are counted on June 23. The NDP have held the riding since Notley’s 2015 sweep but former MLA Rod Loyola’s jump into federal politics was not the most graceful exit and could impact how voters view this by-election.
The NDP have nominated radio show host Gurtej Singh Brar and have been putting considerable resources in his campaign. Brar faces UCP candidate Naresh Bhardwaj, who represented the riding as a PC MLA from 2008 to 2015 and recently ran for the federal Conservative nomination in Edmonton Southeast.
The riding’s population has exploded in recent years with many of the city’s new subdivisions being built in this area. With some recent polls showing the UCP’s support increasing in Edmonton, this by-election will be a practical test of whether the growth in support is real. The NDP’s 25-point margin of victory from the last election could be difficult for the UCP to overcome but it could be a much closer race.
While the dominance of Alberta’s two main political parties makes it difficult for most smaller parties to get attention, their candidates have certainly been trying. In this by-election, those candidates include the Alberta Party’s Caroline Currie (who used to work for the Liberal opposition caucus at the Legislature), Liberal Manpreet Tiwana (who ran for the NDP nomination ahead of the 2023 election), and restaurant owner Fred Munn, who is running for the separatist Republican Party.
Candidates
Naresh Bhardwaj, United Conservative Party
Gurtej Singh Brar, Alberta NDP
Caroline Currie, Alberta Party
Pamela Hensen, Wildrose Loyalty Coalition
Fred Munn, Republican Party
Manpreet Tiwana, Liberal Party
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
The two Edmonton by-elections were long-expected but this by-election only showed up on the radar when three-term UCP MLA and Assembly Speaker Nathan Cooper was appointed as Alberta’s trade representative in Washington DC.
Unlike the two other ridings, which have been held by the NDP for many terms, voters in this rural central Alberta riding are very conservative (Cooper was re-elected with 75 percent of the vote in 2023). And while this by-election should be a slam dunk for UCP candidate and former grain association chairperson Tara Sawyer, the emergence of the right-wing separatist Republican Party led by former UCP organizer Cameron Davies has caught the attention of a lot of political watchers.
It is still unclear whether Davies’ party has enough support to finish with an impressive showing on June 23, but he has earned the endorsements of Cooper’s former campaign manager Nathan Anderson and former separatist MLA Gordon Kesler.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Daveberta - Alberta politics and elections to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.