Danielle Smith's mid-term by-elections
By-elections in Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Strathcona, and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills on June 23
It was two years ago today that Premier Danielle Smith led the United Conservative Party to re-election in Alberta. It was a close election by Alberta standards, with former premier Rachel Notley’s NDP making big gains in Calgary but not enough to block a conservative re-election.
Despite implementing a political agenda much more radical than anything that was promised on May 29, 2023 and being dogged by controversial scandals and allegations of corruption, Smith’s UCP continues to hold its support in the province.
Smith is a deeply divisive figure in Alberta but she is a shrewd politician and skilled communicator who knows how to appeal to and govern with her party’s voters exclusively in mind, even if it sometimes puts her offside with most Albertans.
The UCP’s political agenda will be put to an important test on June 23 when by-elections are held in three Alberta ridings that represent a fairly distinct cross-section of Alberta’s political map. Votes will be held in very urban Edmonton-Strathcona, suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie, and very rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.
These mid-term by-elections, if we are to borrow a term from our southern neighbours (and some people would like us to borrow more than that), will be the first electoral test of the UCP government and the NDP opposition since last December’s by-election in Lethbridge-West, which was won by New Democrat Rob Miyashiro.
The results of these by-elections could also be an indicator of whether the Naheed Nenshi-led NDP’s focus on the “Corrupt Care” scandal and other government controversies are actually registering with voters in the suburban ridings that party will need to hold in the next election, or whether the UCP has been able to make inroads.
Edmonton-Strathcona should be an easy NDP hold
Edmonton-Strathcona should be an easy hold for the NDP with Nenshi as the party’s candidate. The former Calgary mayor has been without a seat since winning the NDP leadership last June and voters in the riding have been waiting since Notley resigned on December 30, 2024 for Smith’s UCP to call this by-election.
The NDP have won this seat in every election since 1986 except one (the Liberals won in 1993) and Notley was re-elected with 79 percent of the vote in 2023, so a Nenshi victory is a safe bet.
The UCP nomination in this safe NDP riding was hardly a stampede with political staffer Darby Crouch defeating past candidate Emad El-Zein to win the candidacy. The Alberta Party is running Samuel Petrov and the separatist Republican Party has nominated Ravina Chand.
Suburban Ellerslie could be a race to watch
Edmonton-Ellerslie has been a solid NDP seat since Rod Loyola was first elected in 2015. Loyola resigned in March to run for the federal Liberals in the Edmonton Gateway riding but was dropped by that party and ran as an Independent instead.
The NDP have nominated talk radio host Gurtej Singh Brar as their candidate and he will face former Progressive Conservative MLA Naresh Bhardwaj, who represented the riding from 2008 to 2015.
Ellerslie has been a safe riding for the NDP in the last three elections but the jump in support that the federal Conservatives earned in ridings with large and vibrant south Asian communities, like the Edmonton Southeast riding that overlaps this area, is something to pay attention to.
The only other person who has announced plans to run in this by-election so far is separatist Republican Party candidate Fred Munn.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills should be a safe UCP riding, but…
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills shouldn’t be a riding the UCP is afraid to lose. Former MLA Nathan Cooper, who has resigned to become the Alberta government’s trade representative in Washington DC, was re-elected in 2023 with 75.2 percent of the vote.
But you wouldn’t know that Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills a safe UCP seat from the way Smith’s government is acting. Smith’s tacit support for Alberta separatism and scaremongering about inappropriate books in schools suggests that she is trying to solidify the loyalty of her party’s right-wing base of supporters ahead of this by-election.
The UCP is spooked that influential separatists inside the party will leave to create their own party or join another one, making the United Conservative Party not a very united conservative party.
The UCP was so concerned of a split in the party that it didn’t risk holding an open nomination meeting and instead appointed local farmer and Alberta Grains chairperson Tara Sawyer as the candidate.
If this rural central Alberta riding is actually competitive, then it’s probably not a race between the UCP and NDP — it’s more likely a race between the UCP and the separatist Republican Party of Alberta.
The newly renamed far-right separatist party doesn’t register on any provincial-level polls but party leader Cameron Davies, a former UCP organizer, is forcing the UCP to put resources into a campaign that should otherwise be a cakewalk.
The UCP expect to lose in Edmonton-Strathcona and wouldn’t be shocked to lose in Edmonton-Ellerslie, but the UCP losing in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills would deliver the most significant blow to Danielle Smith’s political career since she crossed the floor in 2014.
The NDP have nominated local educator Bev Toews, though the party’s chances in this by-election are slim to none. The NDP candidate in the 2023 election placed second with 18.8 percent of the vote, the party’s highest-ever level of support in this riding.
Nenshi has not held back in his criticism of Smith’s tacit support of Alberta separatism (he calls her a separatist), so these by-elections could also be a perfect opportunity for the NDP to wrap themselves in the Maple Leaf Flag as Alberta’s pro-Canadian party.
Do by-elections matter?
All elections matter, of course, but deciphering the impact of by-election results can sometimes be tricky and confusing. Sometimes by-elections affirm the status quo, sometimes they are blip of voter frustration, and sometimes they are a sign of things to come.
By-elections give voters a unique opportunity to send a message to the government or opposition that usually doesn’t drastically change the political landscape. So if you live in one of these three ridings, be sure to take advantage of this opportunity and vote.
I’ll be writing more about these by-elections in the weeks to come.