Alberta is getting a bad deal and it’s always Ottawa’s fault

Danielle Smith's Alberta Next Panel looks a lot like a UCP re-election tour

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Alberta is getting a bad deal and it’s always Ottawa’s fault

Danielle Smith's Alberta Next Panel looks a lot like a UCP re-election tour

Alberta is getting a bad deal and it’s always Ottawa’s fault. That’s Premier Danielle Smith’s key message in a 6 minute and 26 second long video posted on her social media channels on Tuesday.

Less that 24 hours after the polls closed in three provincial by-elections that saw voters deliver one win for Smith’s United Conservative Party and two wins for Naheed Nenshi’s NDP, the premier was ready to announce a new panel to hear people’s grievances about Ottawa and views on the provincial government taking control of immigration, which immigrants should have access to social services, and creating a provincial tax collection agency, provincial pension plan and provincial police force.

While repeating many well-rehearsed talking points and tropes about Albertans that Smith frequently includes in her speeches and interviews, she announced that her Alberta Next Panel will travel the province to hold 10 in-person town hall meetings to decide what questions Albertans should face in a referendum next year.

The Alberta Next Panel’s membership includes prominent voices like economist Trevor Tombe, former justice Bruce McDonald, and business association leader Adam Legge, but it is also stacked with UCP MLAs, party donors and activists. The 15-member panel doesn’t appear to include anyone from Edmonton, the province’s capital city and home to more than 1 million Albertans.

The travelling panel, which is a rehashed version of the Fair Deal Panel that toured the province in 2020, is a follow up from Smith’s threat to create an unprecedented national unity crisis if Canadians re-elected Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals (they did).

While many Albertans hold grievances, both legitimate and perceived, about how the federal government treats the province, the political slant of the panel and the education information included on its website aligns clearly with the UCP’s political agenda and Smith’s tacit support of party members trying to force a referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada.

Despite saying she wouldn’t campaign on sovereignty and creating a provincial police force and provincial pension plan in the 2023 election, Smith nonetheless interpreted the UCP’s re-election as an enthusiastic endorsement of her Alberta Autonomy and Free Alberta Strategy agenda.

Albertans will remember that it was just four years ago when a majority of people voted in favour of a UCP-initiated referendum to remove the national equalization formula from the Constitution. It’s unclear whether the UCP government did anything as a result of that vote other than writing strongly worded letters to federal cabinet ministers.

It’s also unclear why some issues, like the unpopular idea of an Alberta Pension Plan, are even on the panel’s agenda. Just last week, Postmedia succeeded in pushing the government to release the results of its extensive 2023 survey that showed 63 percent of Albertans didn’t want to leave the Canada Pension Plan and only 10 percent were interested in a new Alberta Pension Plan.

The government’s pension survey received some very strong reactions from Albertans about a provincial pension plan. Among the more than 6,200 responses to the survey, which can be found here, the word "fuck” was used 255 times, “shit” was used 85 times, “terrible idea” was used 190 times, “do not support” was used 255 times, and “do not trust” was used 120 times.

Judging from these reactions, Pension Plan Engagement Panel chairperson Jim Dinning wasn’t far off when he compared creating an Alberta Pension Plan to a “a renovation from hell.” (Unsurprisingly, Dinning has not appeared at a government press conference since he shared his brutally honest description in December 2023).

This panel serves a few political purposes for Smith.

Stopping a UCP split

Smith is at her best when she is in front of crowds of conservatives, so taking this panel on the road will give her a chance to solidify her support among UCP voters deeply divided on the question of Alberta’s separation from Canada.

This travelling road show and the promised referendums are aimed at stopping a split in Smith’s party ahead of the party’s AGM in November and the next provincial election, especially with the possible threats posed by smaller right-wing parties like the separatist Republicans.

One recent poll showed 65 percent of UCP voters would vote yes in an independence referendum and prominent activists in her party are the key organizers of a campaign to collect signatures to trigger a referendum on separation next year. Smith gave her tacit public support for their efforts by rushing to lower the guardrails that stopped frivolous citizen initiatives the day after Carney’s Liberals were re-elected.

Trying to control the UCP’s raucous activist base has proven to be almost impossible, so Smith will try to use the panel to demonstrate she is standing up for Alberta while steering the separation debate toward her chosen direction. At this point it’s unclear what direction that will be or why separatists in her party would support a buffet of referendums to replace the single separation question they want on the ballot.

Carney is not unpopular in Alberta

A lot of Albertans think Carney is actually doing a good job, which is a big change from how most people felt about his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

A recent Angus Reid poll showed that 45 percent of Albertans approved of Carney’s performance as Prime Minister so far, compared to 39 percent who disapproved. The same poll showed that 49 percent of Albertans were confident Carney’s government would make progress removing inter-provincial trade barriers, a key demand of Smith’s government. While Albertans aren’t rushing to park their support in the Liberal tent, a lot of people appear to be satisfied with Carney for now.

So, as Carney’s Liberal government moves forward at breakneck speed passing legislation that could allow for the construction of major infrastructure projects, the approval of a new oil pipeline from Alberta to Ontario or to the coast of British Columbia could be a reality before Smith’s referendums are held. This is what the UCP has been asking for and it would rob Smith of her strongest talking point against Ottawa - that it is anti-oil. This panel could give Smith some room to maneuver her autonomy agenda to other issues.

It’s a big distraction

With Nenshi’s NDP only now starting to once again turn their attention to the burning hot issue of affordability, Smith has successfully deflected a lot of Albertans’ anger about the cost of living toward the federal government.

Smith is an exceptional communicator and a shrewd politician who knows the issues that activate her supporters and she is very skilled at sucking up all the oxygen in a political debate. That’s a big part of what this panel is designed to do.

That’s why the measles outbreak that has now spread to more than 1,000 Albertans, a massive and confusing restructuring of the public health care system, a looming teachers strike, the opening of the Eastern Slopes to destructive coal mining operations, a high unemployment rate, and a UCP cabinet minister who quit over major corruption allegations will not be on the panel’s agenda.

But remember, if things are bad in Alberta it’s always Ottawa’s fault.

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Separation looms large among rural conservatives in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills by-election

This week’s by-elections were as clear an indication as any that the divisive debate over Alberta’s separation from Canada is mostly an issue among rural conservatives in and outside of Smith’s UCP.