Nenshi's NDP win Edmonton-Ellerslie and Edmonton-Strathcona by-elections
UCP wins Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills but fails to make gains in Edmonton
The ballots have been counted in the provincial by-elections held yesterday and the results are: Status quo ante bellum.
Naheed Nenshi’s NDP held suburban Edmonton-Ellerslie and urban Edmonton-Strathcona, and Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party held rural Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.
As I wrote last week, by-elections in Alberta rarely result in big political change. In the now 34 by-elections held in the last 50 years, only five have resulted in the election of a candidate from a different party than previously held the riding.
Political change isn’t always clear in by-election results. Most of the time by-elections in Alberta have reaffirmed the status quo, but sometimes they are blips of voter frustration and a sign of things to come. It’s not always easy to decipher, but that’s what makes by-elections so interesting to watch.
Here are some of my quick thoughts as I process the unofficial by-election results from Elections Alberta that rolled in late last night:
Edmonton-Strathcona
Rumours of Nenshi’s demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated after a series of recent polls showed the NDP with lacklustre support and the UCP primed to make major gains in Edmonton. There was no sign of a UCP wave in the capital city on Monday night.
Edmonton-Strathcona voters reaffirmed the central Edmonton riding’s reputation as the strongest NDP area of the province. Nenshi was personally elected to succeed former premier Rachel Notley in Edmonton-Strathcona, a riding the NDP has won in all but one election since 1986. The former Calgary mayor turned opposition leader earned 82 percent of the vote, finishing far ahead of UCP candidate Darby Crouch who earned 13.5 percent.
Almost one year since he won a landslide victory in the NDP leadership race, Nenshi is now the Leader of the Official Opposition and will finally take a seat in the Assembly when the Legislature returns at the end of October. But more importantly for the NDP, Nenshi’s election as an MLA means that the Official Opposition Caucus will finally be able to dedicate its resources to promoting the party leader before the next election.
Results in Edmonton-Strathcona
Naheed Nenshi, NDP - 7,952 votes (82.2%)
Darby Crouch, UCP - 1,314 votes (13.5%)
Don Slater, Liberal Party - 195 votes (2%)
Samuel Petrov, Alberta Party - 115 votes (1.1%)
Ravina Chand, Republican Party - 65 votes (0.6%)
Jesse Stretch, Wildrose Loyalty Coalition - 24 votes (0.2%)
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Despite concerns over former MLA Rod Loyola’s departure and expectations that the UCP could make big gains, NDP candidate and radio talk show host Gurtej Singh Brar held on to Edmonton-Ellerslie with 50.8 percent of the vote. The NDP vote dropped from the last election but it wasn’t a close race with Brar finishing 12 points ahead of UCP candidate Naresh Bhardwaj.
The UCP poured considerable resources into Ellerslie, hoping to capitalize on the party’s jump in the polls to win a single seat in the capital city. But even with Bhardwaj getting numerous campaign visits from Smith and a travelling road show of cabinet ministers, and organizational support from local Conservative MP Tim Uppal, the UCP only managed to increase its support in the diverse suburban riding by 2 points.
The NDP vote dropped by 10 points compared to its 2023 results, which appears to mostly be a result of the presence of a handful of candidates from smaller parties that were not on the ballot two years ago.
Results in Edmonton-Ellerslie
Gurtej Singh Brar, NDP - 4,327 votes (50.8%)
Naresh Bhardwaj, UCP - 3,239 votes (38%)
Manpreet Tiwana, Liberal Party - 410 votes (4.8%)
Fred Munn, Republican Party - 291 votes (3.4%)
Caroline Currie, Alberta Party - 203 votes (2.3%)
Pamela Hensen, Wildrose Loyalty Coalition - 41 votes (0.4%)
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
It would have taken a huge political earthquake for Smith’s UCP to lose Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, so it was no surprise to see candidate Tara Sawyer win with an impressive margin of victory in this rural central Alberta riding.
There had been considerable attention focused on a challenge from former UCP organizer-turned-separatist party leader Cam Davies, but the right-wing Republican Party candidate finished third behind NDP candidate Bev Toews. Going from zero to 17 percent is impressive and is something the UCP should be concerned about but it suggests that the separatist party’s talk of a big breakthrough in this by-election was mostly just bluster (the separatist party’s candidates also barely registered on the radar in the two Edmonton by-elections).
The NDP’s Toews chances of winning this by-election were slim to none, but her second place finish with 19 percent was the NDP’s best ever result in this riding.
The political reality in Alberta is that some of the strongest advocates for Alberta’s independence from Canada are not members of the Republican Party but are inside Smith’s UCP. This is the big reason why, despite the UCP’s big win in this by-election, Smith is scheduled to announce a new version of the Fair Deal Panel, called the Alberta Next Panel, today at Calgary’s Heritage Park.
Results in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
Tara Sawyer, UCP - 9,363 votes (61%)
Bev Toews, NDP - 3,061 votes (19.9%)
Cameron Davies, Republican Party - 2,705 votes (17.6%)
Bill Tufts, Wildrose Loyalty Coalition - 189 votes (1.2%)
Thank you for reading
Thank you for reading and for subscribing to Daveberta. These are my initial thoughts on these by-elections and I hope to share more about these results, what they mean for Alberta politics, and the upcoming federal by-election in Battle River-Crowfoot soon.
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Thanks again,
Dave