Follow the leaders: Mapping where Smith and Notley campaigned in Alberta's election
The leaders had a near laser focus on Calgary and the Edmonton donut
There is one day left until Election Day in Alberta.
For generations, Alberta elections were so one-sided they were almost pre-determined. They felt like a formality. But that tradition was shattered in 2015 when Rachel Notley’s NDP ended 44 consecutive years of Progressive Conservative government. The conservative movement rallied and won a big majority in 2019, with the newly formed United Conservative Party finishing 22-points ahead of Notley’s NDP.
But after four years of UCP government, the political divide is deep and Albertans’ near evenly divided support for the two parties has barely budged in months. Sure, the UCP and NDP have exchanged small leads in the polls, but most polls show only marginal changes since Danielle Smith became UCP leader last fall.
Smith was able to turn around her party’s downward trend after it plummeted under Jason Kenney’s leadership but only barely. The UCP under Smith is nowhere near the juggernaut is was in 2019. The NDP are now a legitimate political force in Alberta politics and either party could form government when the votes are counted tomorrow night.
Someone asked me recently what the defining issues of Alberta’s election campaign have been. I’m generally an optimist when it comes to my home province but the driving force behind our political divide is troubling.
At the beginning of the campaign I would have said that health care and affordability were the main issues of the election, and maybe later in the campaign economic issues were pushed to the top.
But even if you are voting for policy reasons, you are probably also voting because you are afraid of what the other party will do, which is not a great position for Alberta to be in.
There are some significant policy differences between the two parties, but the election really isn’t about policy. It’s about the politics of the two parties.
The NDP has shifted to the political centre in this election, but is still tarred by its connections with the federal NDP and bad memories of the economy during its term in government. The UCP has also given Albertans four years worth of bad memories as government and has more recently shifted right-ward as external groups like Take Back Alberta increase their control of the party.
And both parties have saturated the digital and analogue airwaves with negative ads spinning their opponent’s faults and weaknesses. I’m not sure I’ve heard the word “scary” used so many times in an election campaign.
The political divide in Alberta is so deep that even Smith comparing Albertans to followers of Adolf Hitler barely registered in the polls.
Whatever the outcome of the election, it won’t be a fluke or accident. Albertans are headed to the polls with purpose, even if it is to cast a vote against the other party.
How the parties and Albertans respond to tomorrow’s results will say a lot about how we are adapting to competitive elections in our province and what the tone of the next four years could be in Alberta politics.
Dave
PS. Thank you to everyone who has read and subscribed to the Daveberta Substack. This newsletter has had huge growth in readership and subscriptions since the start of the election and I am looking forward to writing a lot about what happens after the votes are counted. Most of my writing is free to all readers but please consider signing up for a paid subscription to get access to the Daveberta Podcast and special extras. Alberta politics is never boring, so don’t miss out!
Follow the leaders: Mapping where Smith and Notley campaigned in Alberta's election
Over the course of the election I’ve been doing my best to keep track of which ridings United Conservative Party leader Danielle Smith and Alberta NDP leader Rachel Notley visited for events and announcements on the campaign trail between May 1 and May 27, 2023.
The leader’s tour can give some insight into where the parties are on the defensive and where they hope to make gains in an election. And, if competitive ridings are the big measurement, then there were only a few surprises on this map.
The maps I’ve created using the excellent tool at CanadianPolling.ca show Smith and Notley were almost laser focus on Calgary and competitive suburban ridings around Edmonton. Neither party leader deviated for very long from their back and forth trips between Edmonton and Calgary.
Notley spent a lot of time in Calgary and was joined by former mayor Naheed Nenshi on a whistle stop tour of 8 mostly south Calgary ridings on Friday.
Smith also spent a lot of time in north Calgary ridings where UCP candidates are on the defensive, but she ventured into Edmonton more times than I would have expected. UCP supporters tell me the party hopes to make gains in north side ridings like Edmonton-Castle Downs and Edmonton-Decore, and south ridings like Edmonton-Meadows. I remain skeptical that the UCP will win any seats in the capital city.
Both Smith and Notley visited Cypress-Medicine Hat and Brooks-Medicine Hat (the riding where Smith is a candidate), and Notley campaigned in the two Lethbridge ridings and made stops in the ridings between there and Calgary.
Probably due to the wildfires, neither of the leaders visited the north in a campaign capacity, but neither did they visit many other rural ridings in central and southern Alberta. Most of the rural ridings are believed to be safe for the UCP, and most Edmonton ridings are safe for the NDP, which is why the respective leaders of those parties didn’t spend too much time there.
I didn’t count Smith’s visits to Grande Prairie, Lac Ste. Anne-Parkland, and other northern areas because she was there in her capacity as Premier in response to the wildfires and not holding campaign events.
Note on creating the maps: These maps aren’t perfect, because neither party released regular daily itineraries and the UCP stopped listing the locations of their press conferences after one was interrupted by people protesting Smith’s comments about privatizing Calgary’s big hospitals.
I reached out to both the UCP and NDP campaigns to help me compile the list of ridings their leaders visited. The NDP emailed me a list of ridings that Notley visited since the start of the election. The UCP did not respond to my email, but through media reports and UCP social media posts I was able to patch together their leader’s tour.
Record advance voting turnout
According to Elections Alberta, 758,550 people voted in the five days the advance polls were open from May 23 to 27.
That breaks the 2019 record of 700,476 votes cast at the advance polls. We will find out tomorrow night if the record advance turnout leads to a larger total voter turnout, or whether Albertans are just getting accustomed to the convenience of voting during the week before Election Day (it was really easy).
Update: Notley also visited Calgary-West, but I accidentally omitted that on her map. I’ll update it shortly.